Fantasy Baseball 2013 Player Profiles: Jacoby Ellsbury
Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.
Let’s get this out in the open right away. If you’re new to the site, you probably don’t know that I predicted that Jacoby Ellsbury would be the Fantasy Baseball MVP in 2012. Make fun of me if you will, but know that I wasn’t afraid to eat those words.
Actually, go ahead and mock me if you want. Sure, he had a fantastic year in 2011, but he played all of 18 games in 2010 and true to form, missed more than half of 2012.
But now’s the time that we stop looking back and begin to look forward to 2013. What can we expect from Ellsbury in 2013?
Well, the 2011 season of 119 runs, 32 home runs, 105 RBI, 39 steals, and .321 average should not be expected, and if you draft him and project him to come anywhere near that, you’re going to get crushed.
But that doesn’t mean he’s a bad fantasy player. Actually, Ellsbury is a prime example of someone who may be underrated because people overreact to overrating him last year. That’s actually a pretty common theme in fantasy sports. But just how should he be rated? Let’s look at all the important categories.
Runs: Here’s a gamble right off of the bat. Obviously, even if Ellsbury hits 32 homers again, he still needs to score 68 other times off of somebody else’s hit (or walk, or sacrifice) if he’s to score 100 runs. That concerns me in this lineup.
Not only is Ellsbury is a big injury risk, but Dustin Pedroia, Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli, David Ortiz, and even a young Will Middlebrooks have all dealt with injuries in recent years. I don’t want to say that nobody on this list can hit the DL at all throughout the year if Ellsbury is to score a lot of runs in 2013, but we probably need about an average of 140 games played from all them, especially Ellsbury himself.
That’s just too much of a gamble for me. Especially since, (spoiler alert), you can’t count on Ellsbury driving himself in with the long ball that much.
Now, the Red Sox don’t have a bad offense, but I just can’t see Ellsbury crossing the plate 100 times this year. Not only was the 119 he had in 2011 a career high, but the only time he ever scored 100, and some of those other seasons were when he was in a pretty good lineup (Ortiz, Manny Ramirez, a healthier Kevin Youkilis, etc). He won’t be bad by any means, but don’t look for him to push the league leaders.
- Dixon’s Prediction: 84
- Crackerjack Prediction: 93
Home Runs: Ellsbury has played 145 or more games three times in his career. Look at his home run totals from those seasons and tell me which one sticks out.
- 2008: 145 games played, 9 home runs.
- 2009: 153 games played, 8 home runs.
- 2011: 158 games played, 32 home runs.
Which season sticks out there?
Heck, he hit four home runs in 74 games in 2012, which translates to less than 10 homers over 162 games. You could maybe say that he’s beefed up as he’s gotten older (Ellsbury will be 30 in September), and maybe he’ll work on a more powerful stroke since he doesn’t have the talent around him that the Red Sox have had in past years.
Still, he’s just not a power hitter. Fenway is not a great park for left-handed power, as it has very deep fences to right field unless you go right down the line. Now, I am not saying that he’ll be below 10 again, but it’s hard to imagine 20 home runs let alone 30.
- Dixon’s Prediction: 14
- Crackerjack Prediction: 15
RBI: Much like runs, this is a category where you need a lot of help. Does anyone remember 2010, where Prince Fielder had 83 RBI with 32 home runs? Giancarlo Stanton‘s 2012 season was another example, as he had 37 homers with 86 RBI, whereas a guy like Josh Willingham had 35 and 110.
Now, we’ve already established that Ellsbury won’t smack many homers out in 2013, and batting at the top of the Boston order, he’s going to be relying on bottom of the order guys like Stephen Drew, Jonny Gomes, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, David Ross, Daniel Nava, and Pedro Ciriaco. So, just like home runs, not only can you not expect the 2011 totals to repeat themselves, but don’t think that he’ll drive in anywhere near that many runs.
- Dixon’s Prediction: 55
- Crackerjack Prediction: 62
Steals: Here’s an area where Ellsbury’s value looks really good. Now, you can’t expect him to steal the 70 he had in 2009, the 50 he had in 2008, or even the 39 he swiped in 2011.
Still, he’s one of the better stolen base guys in all of baseball, especially when you factor in that he’s not dead weight in other categories, which isn’t really the case with some other high steal guys.
Now, stolen base frequency doesn’t often increase with age, especially when we’re dealing with a person with a history of injuries. Still, this is his “Age 29” season, and that’s far from old. In 2013, Ellsbury may try to run a little more, since he doesn’t need to worry as much about taking the bat out of a great hitter’s hands. While I still don’t see him repeating his past numbers, he’ll still be in the strong category.
- Dixon’s Prediction: 33
- Crackerjack Prediction: 35
Batting Average: This is where things get really tricky. Jacoby has deviated quite a bit here over the years. In his three full, non-injury plagued seasons, he’s hit .280 (2008), .301 (2009), and .321 (2011). That’s quite a bit of variety, and it doesn’t even look at extreme years where he debuted late (.353 in 2007), or an injury riddled campaign (.192 in 2010).
So, rather than look at individual years, I am going to look at his full body of work. Ellsbury is a .297 career hitter. If you eliminate his 2011 campaign, he’s at a .287 mark. So, I am going to split the difference there, and for the first time today, provide a perfect match with our Draft Kit.
- Dixon’s Prediction: .292
- Crackerjack Prediction: .292
Health: As is the case with guys like Jose Reyes and Troy Tulowitzki, you have to imagine that Ellsbury will miss some games throughout the year. Of course he may play a full slate of games, but you just can’t prepare for it, as he’s missed a lot of time throughout his career.
I will grant that Ellsbury’s been a little different than the shortstops mentioned above. They’ve been the types who generally speaking miss some games every year. Ellsbury has traditionally missed at least half of the season, been right around 150, or even better than that. Still, it’s hard to see him topping that total in 2013. I’d plan on at least one DL stint. While I don’t think he’ll have the equivalent of two DL stints (30 games), I wouldn’t feel comfortable advising anyone to plan on him missing fewer than 25, so that’s what we’re going to go with.
- Dixon’s Prediction: 137
- Crackerjack Prediction: 149
Looking at my numbers vs. our collective numbers, you could maybe say that I fall into the category of people that I mentioned above. Somebody who overrated Ellsbury heading into 2012, got burned badly (though he thankfully wasn’t on any of my teams), and could now be so cautious to not overrate him again that I am underrating him.
I’ll only say that he’s had some inconsistency throughout his career, so be very, very careful that you don’t pick him based on his career high stats, or what he showed in 2011.
Once again, what I like about Ellsbury is that he steals bases and doesn’t drain other categories. If he stays healthy, I don’t see him going below any of my projections, but wouldn’t guess that he’ll do any better than the Crackerjack numbers, even in a good season. As is the case with any player with a history of injuries, just be sure to have a good backup option.