2013 Fantasy Baseball Player Profiles: Paul Goldschmidt

Photo courtesy of MudflapDC.

There always seem to be doubts surrounding Paul Goldschmidt.

When he was drafted in the eighth round in 2009 out of unheralded Texas State, he was not immediately considered much of a prospect.

When he drilled 83 homers in his first three minor-league seasons, he was seen as a guy taking advantage of lower-level pitching in hitters-leagues like the California League.

He never played a game at Triple-A before being promoted to Arizona late in 2011, when he hit eight homers in 48 games with the Diamondbacks.

Yet he still wasn’t considered a top-flight fantasy first baseman entering last season. In 2012, he went .286 with 20 homers and 82 RBI while stealing 18 bases.

Those are pretty solid all-around numbers for a first baseman, yet entering this season it seems everyone is questioning if he can repeat those numbers.

So, can he?

Pros

Goldschmidt’s power can’t be denied, he has 111 homers in four pro seasons, connecting at every stop along the way, including the majors. He already has 28 homers in 193 Major League games and didn’t turn 25 until the end of the 2012 season.

The upside there is obvious as the power should increase as he gains experience. He could well get to 40 homers in a season soon.

The 18 steals are what really grabs fantasy owners attention as that puts him in a rare class among first baseman. Not many first basemen steal anywhere near that many bases, and even fewer do so while still providing good pop.

His average in two major-league seasons is .278, certainly acceptable for a guy with his power/speed combo and another statistic that looks likely to rise as he begins just his second full season in the bigs.

His .359 on-base percentage and 82 RBI also give him a strong foundation for the future.

He was also consistent last year, 10 homers against lefties, 10 against righties. Ten homers at home, 10 on the road.

Cons

The biggest concern with Goldschmidt is that his numbers tailed off at the end of last year.

He had just five homers after July and batted .232 in August. Other than that, it is hard to find fault in any of his statistics.

He struck out 130 times, but that is now too far off base for a power-hitting first baseman and his strikeout rate went down from 2011 to 2012.

His 18 stolen bases last year look fluky after just 22 in his first three pro seasons, but hard to imagine he can’t keep that up. When statistics rise against better competition in the big-leagues, that’s a sign a player is progressing, not that he can’t continue the pace.

Outlook

Don’t put me among the doubters.

Goldschmidt has hit for average and power in every pro stop. He hit at least .306 each year in the minors and then hit .250 after a late-season call-up in 2011, which isn’t bad for a guy making his first trip around the majors. He was hitting near .300 much of last year before tailing off at the end, and again that is solid for a first full season in the majors.

I see no reason to think that Goldschmidt won’t improve in every area this year so if you don’t want to grab a first baseman early, he’s a solid pick after the first few rounds who should provide the power you want from a first baseman with above-average speed and batting average.

Mims’ 2013 Projection Range