2013 Fantasy Baseball Player Profiles: Carlos Gonzalez

Photo courtesy of Natalie Litz

Let me start this one on a bit of a personal note. My cousin is becoming a baseball fan, which is really exciting to me. She’s followed the game a bit more over the last few years and is really excited for the start of the 2013 season. She lives in Colorado and is a Rockies fan so as something of a tribute to my little cousin, I’ve decided to to a profile of their lone All-Star from 2012, Carlos Gonzalez.

If you’re looking to get an opinion on Cargo, let me give you a suggestion. Go to a restaurant and grab a cup and fill it half way with water. The people who say it’s half full will likely have a high opinion of Mr. Gonzalez, while the ones who say it’s half empty probably won’t have such kind words.

This is a common theme with Rockies’ hitters. People are very quick to diminish their numbers, noting the massive advantage it gives hitters. Gonzalez is no exception, as he’s certainly used Coors Field to his advantage since joining the Rockies in 2009. Just take a look at his home/road batting average splits.

He only played in 89 games in 2009 so you’re looking at a guy who’s never been below .295 as a full-time Major League player.

Look at the other numbers he’s generated since becoming a full-timer in 2010.

Here’s the thing about the Rockies players with those massive home/road splits: They get to play half of their games at Coors Field. It’s not like the Rockies will be forced to play nothing but road games once mid-June rolls around. They play 81 games at home, and 81 on the road.

In fantasy, total numbers are all that matters. If this was a contract negotiation, you could point out that he’s only a real star for half of the games if you wanted to. But here, those total numbers are all that matters. There is one exception to that, which we’ll get to in a bit.

When you look at his complete numbers, Cargo is the definition of an all-category contributor, and an easy first-round draft pick. The only other players who contribute so well in all five standard categories are Ryan Braun, Mike Trout, Andrew McCutchen, and Matt Kemp. I’d take Miguel Cabrera, Robinson Cano, Albert Pujols, and maybe Joey Votto ahead of him, as well, but that’s it. So at worst, Cargo is the ninth best fantasy player.

What do you know? Looking at our Draft Kit, Gonzalez is our ninth ranked player behind (in order): Braun, Cabrera, Trout, Cano, Kemp, McCutchen, Pujols, and Votto. I’d say that I won this particular argument but in all honesty, there wasn’t much dissension here.

Now, there are a few problems with Cargo.

One. Like his heart-of-the-Colorado-order running mate Troy Tulowitzki, how many games Gonzalez plays is a real concern. He’s never played more than 145 games in a season. But again, look at those total numbers. Those aren’t projecting what he would have done playing 162 games, those are actual achieved numbers. So, he’s missed some games, but has made up for it with one of the most complete fantasy stat sheets over the last three seasons. Best of all, 2013 is his age-27 season, so there’s reason to think that the best is yet to come. If Gonzalez had that injury history but was five years older, I’d be a lot more cautious. But right now, he’s easily a Top-10 talent.

Now, getting back to that one exception. If you are in a head-to-head league, then you need to be a lot more cautious heading into your drafts. Because in those formats, you’re only getting the elite player half of the time. If he’s on the road during a big matchup (or a playoff matchup), then your first round draft pick could be an average player, especially if he’s playing in a pitcher’s park like San Francisco, Los Angeles, or San Diego, which he’ll be seeing a lot of at the end of the year.

Injury prone players are also a concern in head-to-head leagues, even if they put up big numbers despite missing time. This is especially true if they play on a bad team, which the Rockies are. If they’re out of contention in the second half of the year and Cargo is banged up, it’s not hard to imagine the team being extra conservative bringing him back.

Still, those massive home numbers are just too good to push him back too much, even in head-to-head. In that spot, I may be willing to move the likes of Prince Fielder, Buster Posey, and maybe David Wright, Adrian Beltre, Jose Reyes, Josh Hamilton, or Justin Verlander ahead of him, but that still makes Cargo nothing worse than a mid-second round pick. Also, of those players I named, I’d only personally take Fielder, Posey, Wright and Beltre over him in a head-to-head format, but I could make an argument for Reyes, Hamilton, or Verlander.

The only way I’m really worried about those home/road splits is if there’s serious talk that Gonzalez will be moved in the season. So far, I haven’t heard anything like that. Not that I would trust in any way.

Look for a big year from Cargo in 2013. By the time the season’s over, I doubt you’ll need more than two hands to count the players that will have his overall value.