Who’d you rather: Alex Gordon or Austin Jackson

Photo courtesy of Keith Allison

One player is coming off of a World Series appearance, while the other is trying to help his team challenge for a division title for the first time in over two decades.

At first glance you might think that Alex Gordon and Austin Jackson have very little in common. You may be right when you consider their respective team’s potential. When it comes down to comparing the two players side-by-side, “potential” is their common denominator.

Average

Two seasons ago Alex Gordon posted a career best .303 batting average. He also had career bests across the board in homers, RBI, runs and stolen bases. The 29 year-old followed his career best up with a .292 average last year. He hit .310 in the second half of last season after a shaky start. His average remained a constant with his excellent fly ball to ground ball ratio and increasing walk rate.

So far during the month of March he has led all hitters with a .520 average going 13-for-25 during spring training. He had a hot start like this two seasons ago, which led to his breakout season. You can expect an average between .292 and .305 with a maturing lineup around him.

When Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera hit behind you expect to see a lot of good pitches to hit. In 2012, Austin Jackson set the table for the sluggers and the rest of the Detroit Tigers, ending the season with an even .300 average.

The 2012 season saw him achieve career highs across the board just as Alex Gordon did two years ago. Austin has age on his side he just turned 26 years old. With age comes responsibility and he has proven an adept lead-off man for the American League Central defending champion Detroit Tigers. I expect his average to drop because of a lucky BABIP of .370 from last year.

Expect Austin to hit around .285 with yet another asset, Torii Hunter, being acquired to hit in the number two spot behind him.

Advantage: Alex Gordon

Runs

Alex Gordon’s run production only dropped by eight runs last year from his career high of 103 in 2011. He proved to me last year that he will be a consistent run producer hitting third in the Kansas City Royals lineup.

What make his run production of 93 runs scored last year so remarkable is the players hitting behind him with the exception of Billy Butler had average to wretched production. Mike Moustakas was mediocre in his no walk, no contact, strikeout over one hundred times campaign of 2012. We will not even get into the Eric Hosmer’s abomination of a season had, drying up run production for Alex Gordon and Billy Butler. In fact, I hope Alex Gordon bought Billy Butler a new sweater for Christmas because he has him to thank for the majority of those 93 runs scored.

The good news is that I expect a major contact rate improvement for Mike Moustakas and a bounce back year for Eric Hosmer. It can’t get any worse for Hosmer. With Billy Butler providing his usual run producing ways, Alex Gordon will score around 100 runs this season.

This season will be the beginning of Austin Jackson hitting his prime run producing years. With the addition of Torii Hunter and the subtraction

Photo courtesy of Keith Allison

of Quintin Berry hitting behind him, Austin will see an uptick in run production from his 103 runs scored from last year.

The Tigers juggernaut will keep rolling this season as Austin Jackson approaches 110+ runs for the season. He will be a dark horse candidate to lead the American League in runs scored. Actually, barring injury, I don’t see Austin Jackson not being in the conversation at season’s end.

Advantage: Austin Jackson

Home Runs

Which Alex Gordon are we going to get this year? Will it be the Alex Gordon who hits 14 homeruns as he did last year, or will he approach 25 homers as he did two years ago?

His HR/FB ratio of 8% will need to improve for him to approach 20+ homers for this season. What does help is his XBH/HR ratio, which is approaching elite levels. With Billy Butler and the maturation of the young hitters around him, it won’t take much for Alex Gordon to approach 25 home runs. He will have to lift more balls in the air while remaining selective but if he gets hot in the early going, there is no reason he can’t approach these numbers.

Let’s take into consideration that Austin Jackson is a lead off man, and no one is confusing him for Rickey Henderson. The Tigers aren’t asking him to swing for the fences.

With that being said, Austin Jackson has some pop in his bat. Even so, he will be focused on setting the table for the sluggers that come after him while taking advantage if a pitcher makes a mistake. Austin Jackson will hit between 15 – 18 home runs with a peak of 20 in a career year.

Advantage: Alex Gordon

Runs Batted In

It is very simple to figure out a projection for RBI’s for Alex Gordon. He will either drive in 70 or 90 depending on the on base skills of those in front of him and his up and down contact rate.

He drove in 72 last year and 87 the season before. He is starting to develop a pattern of big numbers in odd numbered years and average numbers in even numbered years. As luck would have it we are in an odd numbered year. What does that tell us? Absolutely nothing.

Since the Royals did very little to improve the top of their line up, I think Alex will fall somewhere in the middle around 80 RBI’s for the year. He will have to approach career numbers for him to approach 90 RBI’s and above.

Austin Jackson posted a career high 66 RBI’s last season. He is in a different league when going head-to-head with Alex Gordon in the runs batted in department. In a great year he could approach 75 RBI’s. For arguments sake I think he drives in 60 to 65 RBI like he did last season.

Advantage: Alex Gordon

Stolen Bases

Alex Gordon is no speedster on the base paths, garnering 10 stolen bases last year with a career high of 17 stolen bases in 2011. However, he is one of the savviest base runners in the American League. I don’t see him running a lot this year, finishing off at 8 to 12 stolen bases with a little effort.

Just like Austin Jackson being no match for Alex Gordon in RBI, Alex Gordon is no match for Austin Jackson in the stolen base department.

Having just turned 26 year’s-old, Austin Jackson has plenty of speed left to swipe upwards of 20 to 25 stolen bases this year. You will see him run more with a much better contact and hit and run partner in Torii Hunter behind him.

He is not in an elite class of speed like a Michael Bourn or the emerging Ben Revere but he can crank up the volume when the opportunities present themselves.

Advantage: Austin Jackson

Conclusion

It really depends on what kind of player you are looking for when choosing between Alex Gordon and Austin Jackson. If you want speed and a large amount of runs you choose Jackson. If you want power production with some risk but upside, you choose Alex Gordon.