Who’d you rather: Will Middlebrooks or Todd Frazier?

Photo courtesy of Keith Allison

In a few years, it’s very possible baseball fans everywhere will be looking at 2012 as a landmark season. A seemingly endless amount of rookies debuted or at least became full time players for the first time.

Will Middlebrooks debuted in 2012 and got off to a hot start before an injury. Todd Frazier debuted in 2011, but kept his rookie eligibility, becoming a full timer for the first time during the season and finishing third in NL Rookie of the Year voting behind Bryce Harper and Wade Miley.

Both Middlebrooks and Frazier play the hot corner, third base. But if you could only have one of these young bucks, who would it be?

Before we get going, I want to ask you guys a few trivia questions about the third base position.

1. How many players with 3B eligibility in 2013 hit 20 or more homers in 2012?
2. Of the same list of players, how many drove in 70 runs?

The answers will be at the bottom, so you have to read this whole thing first. I mean it, don’t scroll down or I’ll, well, I’ll have very hurt feelings.

Okay, Will Middlebrooks and Todd Frazier. Who’d you rather? Let’s take a look at some variables.

The Stat Line

Take a look at what these two did in the majors 2012:

At a glance, this would appear to be advantage Middlebrooks, especially in the power department. In 155 fewer at bats, he was just four total homers and 13 RBI shy of Frazier. Throw in a higher batting average, and this would seem to be a no-brainer. Granted, Frazier has a slightly higher OBP, but that’s not a standard category in fantasy baseball and the gap isn’t exactly that great anyway. So, this is Middlebrooks in a walkover, right?

Not necessarily. The advantage to Frazier is that he has more at bats. Pitchers have had a chance to adjust to him and he’s had a chance to adjust back. That hasn’t happened with Middlebrooks. Not yet, anyway. Also, consider that his batting average was 15 points lower, but his OBP was five points higher. That’s indicative that Middlebrooks is a bit more aggressive (he also strikes out at a higher rate), which means that he’s a little easier for quality pitchers to expose.

So, even with a higher ceiling from Middlebrooks, Frazier gives you a steadier baseline.

The Help

Frazier has has Shin-Soo Choo, Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto, Ryan Ludwick, and Jay Bruce as help. Middlebrooks has Jacoby Ellsbury, Shane Victorino, Dustin Pedroia, Mike Napoli, and David Ortiz. Not bad in Boston, but Frazier clearly has the better teammates. So, advantage Frazier, right? Again, not so fast.

With a little help from our friends at MLBdepthcharts, let’s take a look at where Middlebrooks and Frazier figure to stand in their respective lineups. Right now, they have Frazier batting sixth for the Reds, and Middlebrooks batting fifth for the Red Sox. At bats do matter here and a fifth hitter will get more than a sixth hitter. Additionally, every one of Middlebrooks’ top teammates is either old, has an injury history, or both. That’s not really the case in Cincinnati. Again, that seems like an advantage for Frazier, but it also means that Frazier is more likely to be stuck in the sixth spot. Middlebrooks could easily see some time at the top of the Boston order.

If Boston’s lineup was terrible, that wouldn’t matter as much. But those hitters are still competent, so the advantage here goes to Middlebrooks.

Looking Deeper

If you’re a Middlebrooks supporter, you’ve probably made this point in one way or another here, but while Frazier did give Major League pitchers a chance to adjust to him, he didn’t really adjust back. Frazier had a strong summer, batting .306 in July and .330 in August, but hit .176 in the season’s final month. That’s against expanded rosters, meaning Major League players should be improving facing thinned out competition, especially since Frazier did play the season before in September.

While he hasn’t lagged badly, Frazier is hardly tearing up the Grapefruit League, while Middlebrooks is doing pretty well, showing a more consistent stroke, though the Spring Training power edge lies with Frazier.

An edge that Frazier has is position eligibility. Both are third basemen, but Frazier can play first for your fantasy team.

Who’d you Rather?

Let’s look at our Draft Kit numbers for both:

You’ll have a hard time finding two players at the same position who are as close as those two are. It’s really a dealer’s choice, and this dealer chooses Middlebrooks.

Frazier’s games played edge gives him the better baseline, but his 2012 finish worries me, and while first base eligibility is nice, it’s not exactly a position where many fantasy owners find themselves desperate for help.

Also, batting down in the order in the National League is going to hurt his run totals, as all of his top teammates won’t be there to drive him in. He’ll be getting the Reds worst hitters, and their pitchers.

Of the two, Middlebrooks is more likely to have a true star caliber season. When comparing Matt Cain and Cole Hamels, I took Cain. The reason there is that I saw him as a more stable option, as even if Hamels has a more transcendent year, Cain’s numbers will still be solid across the board. Those are front-line pitchers and with front-line players (hitters or pitchers), I’ll generally be inclined to take the more stable option.

Middlebrooks and Frazier aren’t front-line players, though. Not yet, anyway. In my two snake drafts this year, both players were mid-late round picks both times. At that point of the draft, I like to gamble a little bit and go with the higher ceiling, even if the floor is lower. So, while we project these two close to each other, I’m going with Middlebrooks.

Now, are you ready for those answers? Okay!

1. 12 players: Miguel Cabrera, Adrian Beltre, Chase Headley, Pedro Alvarez, Aramis Ramirez, Ryan Zimmerman, Hanley Ramirez, Trevor Plouffe, David Wright, David Freese, Mike Moustakas, and Kyle Seager.
2. 13 players: Miguel Cabrera, Chase Headley, Aramis Ramirez, Adrian Beltre, Ryan Zimmerman, David Wright, Hanley Ramirez, Kyle Seager, Pedro Alvarez, David Freese, Chris Johnson, Mike Moustakas, and Martin Prado.

Nowhere on either of those lists are Middlebrooks or Frazier. Another name absent there is Brett Lawrie, who we also have high hopes for this year. Third base is still viewed by some as a razor-thin position, but there’s plenty of value there. Don’t worry too much about the hot corner if you miss out on the top names.