Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.
I hope I’m not the first or last to do so, but let me wish everyone a Happy Opening Day! This is one of my favorite days on the sport’s calender and while I love fantasy baseball, I usually try to enjoy this day as a fan of the game in general.
That’s the case for a few reasons but one of them is that it usually takes a few weeks to get a real lay of the land for a baseball season. Stats are way out of whack in the early part of the season, so I’ll wait a few weeks for a Dixon’s Picks. Having said that, a round-tripper on Opening day counts the same for your fantasy team that one on the final day of the season. So, while I am not advising that you go out and jump on these guys, I’d suggest that you keep an eye on them, because a strong early season performance could be indicative of something bigger than just going 4-4 with a homer and 3 RBI on opening day, being on pace to hit 1.000 with 162 HR and 486 RBI.
So with that, let’s take a look at some waiver wire guys to keep an eye on.
Juan Pierre
If you’ve been with us since the beginning, you know that stolen bases irritate me, in the fantasy game, that is. One of the places where I the fantasy player in me differs from the real baseball fan. The reason I don’t like them in fantasy is that unlike the other offensive stats, many players who excel in steals are just about useless everywhere else (I’m looking at you Rajai Davis and Everth Cabrera). That’s not necessarily the case with Juan Pierre.
Now, I know that he won’t get you any of the power numbers, but I can’t help but be drawn to what he will bring you in average and could bring you in runs. As of right now, Baseball Prospectus has Pierre leading off for the Marlins, at least against right-handed pitchers. Fortunately, they start the majority of games and the other platoon option is Austin Kearns. It’s not exactly hard to see him falling out of favor.
Pierre’s career AVG/OBP is .297/.346, which is not terrible. He showed as recently as 2012 (.307/.351 in 130 games) that he can still get on base with some frequency. So, at the very least you can rely on that not being a drain. But something else to remember about Pierre is that leading off for the Marlins, he’s going to have a chance to be driven in by Giancarlo Stanton. Granted, if it’s not Stanton it probably won’t be anyone, especially until Logan Morrison gets into the lineup. Still, with Stanton’s power, being on base in front of him can lead to runs scored.
Now, I am not saying to go out there and sign him right now. But I am saying that if he gets off to a good start, he’s worth looking at in deeper leagues, or if you have an outfielder/UT man get hurt early in the year. This will really be true if Stanton starts well, especially if just one or two other Marlin hitters show some life. Pierre’s probably not a 162-game fantasy player anymore, but if all is well, he’s worth a ride for a few months.
Eduardo Nunez
Let me let you in on a few little secrets.
- The shortstop position has no depth. If your guy gets hurt, hope it’s not long term because in a league with 10 or more people, replacing him for more than a week will not be easy.
- Yankees’ shortstop Derek Jeter is starting the season on the DL.
- Alex Rodriguez, their regular third baseman since 2004 is facing an injury that will have him out until at least the All-Star-Break. The injury combined with constant PED allegations could put his season, if not career in jeopardy.
- The Yankees signed Kevin Youkilis in the offseason. While he’s still a capable player, Youkilis has never played 145 games in a season and hasn’t played more than 122 in any of the last three seasons.
- Jeter will be 39 in June. Rodriguez will be 38 in July. Youkilis just turned 34 in March.
What? Those aren’t secrets? Everyone knows that? Dang. I thought I was on to something there. Anyway, all of that means that Eduardo Nunez is likely to see some at bats this year, especially in the early part of the year.
Now, Nunez is like Pierre in that any homers he gets you should be considered a bonus. I wouldn’t call him a prolific base-stealer, but with 38 steals in 180 career games, he won’t kill you there.
What you really want to see with Nunez is where he’s batting in the order. With guys like Rodriguez, Jeter, Mark Teixeira, and Curtis Granderson out (all but possibly Jeter for extended time), it’s not inconceivable that we’ll see Nunez batting in front of Robinson Cano, or down in the sixth spot, which is not bad for RBI. Even without much power, he can be a cheap source of fantasy production in average and steals for sure, and either RBI or runs, depending on where he ends up. Now, if he doesn’t do well enough to crack the Yankees’ Top 6 on a consistent basis, you can do better, even as a fill-in shortstop. But if he’s up at the top of the order, you’re looking at a guy who can provide sneaky production in a few categories at a bad position. Worth keeping an eye on.
Santiago Casilla
Now, Sergio Romo is the best reliever the Giants have, and while their bullpen is good, it’s not much of a contest. But until the postseason, Bruce Bochy was very committed to the closer by committee notion to replace Brian Wilson in 2012, and they didn’t bring in another closer in the offseason.
That tells me that while Romo will probably be the Giants’ primary closer, Bochy will likely look elsewhere for saves on occasion. Also, remember that Romo is now 30 and his primary pitch is a slider. Injuries have never been a massive concern, but that pitch does lead to injuries.
Throw all of that together and take a look at Santiago Casilla, the man who led the Giants in saves in 2012 and of all the guys in the bullpen, has the most classic closer stuff. Now, that doesn’t show in K/9 rate, especially when compared to Romo. But if Romo’s slider’s not on, he could be in trouble. Casilla can attack hitters a little better.
Now, I’ll say again that Romo should be the team’s primary closer. In 2012, the two combined for 39 saves, with Casilla notching 25 and Romo tallying 14. Don’t be surprised if those numbers are flipped. Even when Romo’s the closer, Casilla’s had a 2.22 ERA/1.18 WHIP with 8.2 strikeouts per nine as a Giant. You could do a lot worse if you’re looking for help in those areas.
Now, relief pitchers are really tricky in the early year with ERA and WHIP. They don’t throw many innings so any dent can make them look really bad. So, look at his strikeouts and if he’s got an ugly ERA or WHIP, look at his profile page to see just how that happened. While we’re on the subject of relievers.
Andrew Bailey & Sergio Santos
As of right now, we’re looking at Joel Hanrahan and Casey Janssen as the closers for the Red Sox and Blue Jays, respectively. I am not expecting that to change, but both Andrew Bailey and Sergio Santos have been closers in the past, and good ones. They really lost their jobs because of an injury.
Like with Casilla, monitor them in the early season. You may want to keep an eye on how Hanrahan and Janssen are doing, as well, but I’m also suggesting that these guys could possibly be moved in season if they’re healthy and pitching well. If that happens, they’ll become closers wherever they go and will get eaten up on your fantasy leagues. If they’re doing well, you can use their middle relief stats to help your team and wait to see if they’re moving, helping you get saves.
Now, Bailey is the better of the two, but Sergio Santos is a strikeout machine who can help get you some points there. Again, don’t sign them right now, but keep an eye on what they’re doing.
Bonus Pick
Ian Kennedy
The other guys were waiver wire guys who might be worth keeping an eye on, this is a guy who’s not on any waiver wires, but is worth keeping an eye on. Heading into the year as the Diamondbacks’ No. 1 starter, take a look at Kennedy’s likely April starts.
- vs. Cardinals
- at Brewers
- vs. Dodgers
- at Rockies
- at Giants (day game)
- vs. Giants
Normally I wouldn’t be too thrilled about that for a pitcher’s opening month. But in the case of Ian Kennedy, I am, because I want to see what kind of pitcher he’s going to be this year. In 2011, Kennedy was elite. In 2012, he was decidedly average. If he was facing teams like the Cubs, Padres, and Mets in the early going, I wouldn’t be so sure that I could trust the good results. If he’s good against these teams, you’re probably looking at a really good pitcher this season.
On the other hand, if he gets shelled in most or all of these starts, you’re looking at a 2012 repeat. That’s not to say he’ll be bad, but he won’t be that good either. Elite pitchers can handle these teams. That’s not to say that an elite pitcher would throw six gems, but they’d be solid far more often than not. I don’t see Kennedy being one who splits the difference between elite and average. If he’s doing poorly early on and you own him, see if you can unload him to an owner attracted to the name more than the stats. If he does well and he’s not on your team, try to get him.
The overall point with Kennedy is that while the first few starts can be a little misleading with some pitchers, his history shows that they’re important, especially against these opponents.