Photo courtesy of JonDigital
The value of interacting with readers is that even if they don’t ask for anything terribly in depth, your answers to their questions cause you to do a bit of research. Case in point: A recent Facebook conversation about Jose Fernandez of the Marlins:
"Original Comment: Jose Fernandez might be worth an add. What do you think?My Response: Not Yet.After a slight diversion, we had Clave chime in with what is currently the last word said on the matter.Clave: Only Jeremy Bonderman and Rick Porcello have jumped from A ball at age 20. Fernandez in the majors is a gamble, but not surprising considering the Marlins."
That last little bit got me to thinking a little bit. With such a small sample size, let’s take a look at what Jeremy Bonderman, Rick Porcello, and Fernandez did in their Age-19 seasons in the minors.
IP | ER | H | BB | SO | K/9 | H/9 | BB/9 | W-L | ERA | WHIP | |
Bonderman (2002) | 156.2 | 66 | 140 | 59 | 170 | 9.8 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 9-9 | 3.79 | 1.270 |
Porcello (2008) | 125 | 37 | 116 | 33 | 72 | 5.2 | 8.4 | 2.4 | 8-6 | 2.66 | 1.192 |
Fernandez (2012) | 134 | 26 | 89 | 35 | 158 | 10.6 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 14-1 | 1.75 | 0.925 |
Before we look into Fernandez, let’s take a look at how Bonderman and Porcello fared as rookies.
IP | ER | H | BB | SO | K/9 | H/9 | BB/9 | W-L | ERA | WHIP | |
Bonderman (2003) | 162 | 100 | 193 | 58 | 108 | 6.0 | 10.7 | 3.2 | 6-19 | 5.56 | 1.549 |
Porcello (2009) | 170.2 | 75 | 176 | 52 | 89 | 4.7 | 9.3 | 2.7 | 14-9 | 3.96 | 1.336 |
From a real baseball perspective, I’d actually say that Porcello’s 2009 season was pretty good. From a fantasy perspective, it was nothing to write home about. He’s not a strikeout guy so even though his ERA was under 4.00 and he won 14 games, the rest of the season was rather ordinary.
Now, I’ll grant that Fernandez as a 19-year-old was better than Bonderman and Porcello in nearly every category, but in case you didn’t know this, Major League hitters are a lot better than A-ball guys. If you’re not even 21, you haven’t learned your craft at all. Now, you can point to Mike Trout and Bryce Harper if you’d like, but I’d think about a few things before drawing the comparison with Fernandez.
- Hitting is much different than pitching. Good hitters fail seven out of ten times. Pitchers are expected to succeed a lot more.
- Both Trout and Harper played at higher Minor League levels, with Trout even being a September call-up in 2011.
- Hitters or pitchers, you may not see rookies like Trout or Harper for quite some time.
There’s something else to consider about Fernandez, a pitch count that’s likely to be pretty strict (per ESPN).
"He will make his MLB debut next Sunday against the Mets. Marlins president Larry Beinfest indicated that Fernandez is expected to throw 150-170 innings this season, all with the major league club."
That’s not something you want to see. It’s going to be hard enough to win games for the Marlins this year, but if they’re putting him on a tight innings watch, then he’s not going to be getting deep in games often enough to win many of them. Throw in the fact that the Marlins are an awful team, so any injuries, even if minor, will likely be treated very cautiously.
I agree with Clave and Mark Townsend of Yahoo Sports, this is a hard move to justify. There’s going to be a serious learning curve. Again, I know that Fernandez has a better track record than Bonderman and Porcello. I also know that Porcello has been okay as a major leaguer. Personally, I’d attribute that more to his style of pitching, which makes adjustments easier. But if we’re being really kind Bonderman had an average career, and a disastrous rookie season. Fernandez may be better than Bonderman was, but he’ll have to be much better to have a rookie season that’s considered good.
As bright as Fernandez’s future seems to be, I’d avoid him in 2013, at least for a while. Think back to when you were in school. Every year, there was an adjustment period, which was usually countered by teachers lightening the load in the first few weeks. Jumping from A-ball to Triple-A is about the equivalent of going from fifth grade to your senior year in high school, only with that irritating teacher who gives you three hours worth of homework on the first day of school.
The only advice I have for fantasy owners on Fernandez is to wait, probably five starts. See what he gives the Marlins then, and how rough his adjustment is. See how well he’s striking guys out, or if his walk rates are dramatically increasing. If he’s transitioning smoothly, I’d say he’s worth a spot on deeper rosters, at least on a spot start basis.
But I’m not expecting that. Fernandez has an incredibly bright future, but I think the earliest the bright part starts is late-2013, but I’m looking more at 2014 or even 2015.