Photo courtesy of Keith Allison
If your understanding of the A’s organization under Billy Beane goes beyond the movie Moneyball, you know that they consistently field excellent pitching rotations. Even in some of the team’s bad years over the last decade, their pitching rotations have been as deep as any in the American League, no exceptions. One pitcher who’s still available to most fantasy players is A.J. Griffin and if he’s available to you, get out there and grab him.
Obviously, fantasy baseball is all about the numbers, so take a look at what Griffin has done thus far in 2013.
| IP | W-L | ER | H | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 14 | 2-0 | 3 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 1.93 | 1.07 |
Pretty good start. Now, I want to hit the one thing would probably look at as a negative first, that being the lack of strikeouts.
The two starts were against the Mariners and Angels. That means he was facing a Michael Morse, who was off to a torrid start, and then the likes of Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, and Josh Hamilton (I know he’s struggling, but still a dangerous hitter). If you want to say that the lack of strikeouts indicates luck, go ahead, but I’d actually suggest great maturity.
Griffin is 25, and his Minor League Track record suggests that he’s more than capable of striking hitters out with regularity. But, do you know what happens when you strike a lot of hitters out? You generally throw a lot of pitches (at least three per K), and frequently walk a lot of hitters. That leads to a line that looks something like this.
- 5 innings pitched, 1 earned run, 4 hits, 4 walks, 8 strikeouts, 110 pitches thrown.
That’s an ugly WHIP (1.60), going only five innings means it’s hard to pick up a win, and that one earned run can easily turn into three or four. Three or four runs allowed looks a lot uglier on the ERA over five innings than six or seven.
It takes most 25 year-olds with strikeout stuff to learn that lesson. The fact that in two starts, Griffin has put up solid numbers while striking out very few hitters tells me that he knows how to use the park. Granted, his two starts have been in pitcher’s parks (Oakland and Anaheim), but the aforementioned Minor League Track Record tells me that he’ll be fine when the A’s go to some more hitter-friendly surroundings. When he’s facing good hitters and they’re hitting the ball but still not doing anything of note, it tells me that you’re looking at a good pitcher.
But that’s not the only thing that I like about Griffin and his fantasy prospects this year. Let’s take a look at those things.
His Home Stadium
In 2012, the A’s had 10 pitchers start games for them, with eight of them finishing the season with an ERA under 4.00. Including relievers, 16 pitchers threw 35 or more innings for the Athletics in 2012, and 15 had an ERA under 4.00. A part of the reason is that they’re good pitchers, as the A’s scout incredibly well. But playing in one of the best pitcher’s parks in Major League Baseball contributes greatly to their success.
When half of your starts are in Oakland, you can get away with an awful lot. Part of the reason is that there are no cheap homers in Oakland’s park. Another reason is that aside from a few select day games, the Bay Area teams almost never play home games in hot weather. When pitchers don’t have to experience a pounding heat through the summer, they’re able to stay fresh longer. The Oakland Coliseum has always been good for pitchers, so is AT&T Park, and so was Candlestick. Yes, those are all bigger parks, but the Bay Area weather and wind contributes a lot to that.
While it may not work out exactly this way, Griffin will get half of his starts in Oakland this year. With that, it’s hard to see him not maintaining good numbers all year. Granted, he probably won’t win every start with a 1.93/1.07 ERA/WHIP, but if nothing else, Oakland will numbers will be pretty steady.
His Team
I’ll be conservative here and say that the A’s have a top-five bullpen in the game. In reality, it may well be the best when you go person for person. So, when their starters leave a game with the lead, there’s a pretty good chance they’ll finish said game with a win.
Additionally, the A’s were one of baseball’s best teams in 2012 and are off to a good start in 2013. Yes, the injury to Yoenis Cespedes may slow their roll a little bit, but I can’t imagine that this won’t be a winning team with room to spare by season’s end. What does that mean? Well, again, he’ll have a chance to win plenty of games.
Overall
Get out there and sign Griffin right now. I’d understand if you weren’t confident enough with him to start him against some of the American League’s best lineups, but there are only a few that I’d think about benching him against.
Griffin has been a strong pitcher throughout his professional career, and had good overall numbers last year with the A’s. In Spring Training, Griffin was involved in a battle for his spot in the rotation, but he’s firmly entrenched as a starter now, even in a pitching-rich organization. Not only did he win a spot, but he’s pitching great at the beginning of the year, showing that he’s overcome the struggles he had at the end of last season.
Look for more strong performances from Griffin going forward.