Fantasy Baseball Strategy: Dealing With Elite Players

Writer’s Note: Monday was obviously a really strange and sad day for everyone. What happened in Boston was an absolute tragedy, and our thoughts and prayers are with everyone there. Certainly they go out to those who had loved ones killed or wounded, but everyone who experienced that is in our thoughts and prayers. On a personal note, some very good friends of mine live in Boston and while I didn’t know this at the time, my uncle’s wife was actually running in the Boston Marathon. Fortunately for me, everyone that I know there came away physically unscathed. If anyone who wasn’t so fortunate is reading this (unlikely, I know), please know that everyone involved with this site is sending you and your loved ones nothing but our best wishes. 

Having said that, different people deal with tragedies in different ways. Some people block things like sports (and fantasy sports) from their lives, and I completely understand and respect that. As much as we all love sports, they do need to be placed in their proper perspective at times, and this is certainly one of them.

But personally, I’ve always tried to get through days like this by allowing myself to focus on other things. We at the site know that there are a lot of people out there who do things similarly. So we’re going to keep writing and posting stuff for you, today even more than most.

If today is your first exposure to our site, welcome aboard. Likewise, if you’re familiar with us, welcome back. As always, feel free to comment in any way that you see fit and please look back at some of our posts from previous days.

Again, everyone in Boston is in our thoughts and prayers. It’s not only one of the best sport’s towns in the country, but also one of the best cities period. I’ve had the chance to visit my friends there a few times since they moved there a few years ago, and seeing how well Bostonians rushed to help one another was incredible, but not at all surprising. 

Thank you from all of us.

Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

Nash, Clave, and I are all in a league together. A few of us are pretty experienced, while most of the players started fantasy baseball in 2011 or 2012. One guy who started in 2012 had a phenomenal year a season ago, finishing in fourth place, beating some pretty experienced players along the way, including one of us — I won’t say who, but his name rhymes with Cash. Anyway, this guy was in realistic contention for the title until the season’s last few weeks. The three of us were impressed.

Well, that same guy let some of his inexperience show and made a really bad trade over the weekend. The kind of trade that once he made it, he instantly regretted it (saying so himself), and probably hoped it would get vetoed. No such luck. Take a look for yourself.

• He Got: Eric Hosmer, Jason Kipnis, Pablo Sandoval, Yu Darvish.
• He Gave: Prince Fielder, Howie Kendrick, Will Middlebrooks, Melky Cabrera, C.J. Wilson

The intricacies of that league actually make that trade a little worse than it looks (hard to believe, I know). But this does bring up something that happens a lot.

If you removed Kendrick, Middlebrooks, Cabrera, and Wilson from that trade, I still would not have taken that move. Hosmer, Kipnis, Sandoval, and Darvish are good players, but they’re not Fielder. Fielder is an elite player, and those aren’t replaced by spare parts, even if they are very good.

Let’s detour a little bit and talk about the NBA. Think about some of the recent NBA champions.While it takes more than one great player for a team to win a championship, how many championship teams have their been who won without a Top-10 (or better) player? Not many. You probably have to go back to the 2004 Pistons to find the last one, and more than 20 years before that. It’s not a common occurrence  You need a good team, but you also need a star to make up for a lot of the team’s shortcomings. 

Fantasy baseball is the exact same way. With pitchers, you can focus a little bit more on quantity, although Justin Verlander or Clayton Kershaw make up for a lot, you can win a fantasy championship without an elite arm, you just have to have several good ones. But winning a championship, especially in a roto league, without an elite hitter? I don’t like your chances. Head-to-head is a little different, especially if you’re good at streaming, but the overall point doesn’t change much.

Now, there are some players who are genuine contributors in all categories, like Mike Trout, Ryan Braun, Carlos Gonzalez, Matt Kemp, and Andrew McCutchen. But using some 2012 stats, I want to show you guys something using Miguel Cabrera as an example. Just a reminder, I’d like to show all of you guys what Miggy did in the five standard offensive categories used in fantasy baseball.

In 2012, Clave, Nash, and I decided to run a standard league with us and seven readers. For those of you unfamiliar, a standard league uses runs, home runs, RBI, SB, and batting average, with 13 active offensive spots (C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, UT). These were the total numbers of the league leaders in each of the five categories.

Now, we talk a lot about setting goals and generally speaking, trying to be third in each category is a goal. But for a moment, let’s say you were shooting for the top spot in each offensive category. These are the average numbers that you would need from each player to do that in 2012 (rounding up in every case):

Now, go back and look at Cabrera’s numbers. You are well ahead of pace in four of the five categories. Now, let’s have a gander at the 2012 numbers of Rajai Davis who is generally speaking, pretty poor in all categories other than stolen bases.

And because I want to be a nice guy, I am going to go ahead and combine those numbers for you.

Total:

On average

So, if you were starting with those two alone in 2012, you would be on (or above) pace to win every single offensive category. Now, remember that Davis is at best a late-round pick, so you could have filled your roster with much better players before drafting or signing Davis for the steals.

That’s what a superstar player does. And while it’s true that a lot of good players minus Miggy can put up good numbers, you can’t depend on them like you can with Cabrera. If you’re going with good players, you’re going to have one or two that disappoint every year, even if only slightly. Miggy’s an elite player and would anyone be remotely surprised if he repeated his 2012 stats in 2013? Even if he didn’t, how much of a drop is he going to have? With elite hitters, you have an elite worst case scenario, and that’s just hard to overcome.

Now, if you have an elite hitter, he’s going to be coveted. You’ve probably received trade offers for them and if not, you’re going to throughout the year. So, here’s the question. Who are the elite hitters, and what do you do if you receive an offer for them? Well, here’s part one of that question.

Dixon’s Elite Hitters for 2013

1. Ryan Braun
2. Miguel Cabrera
3. Mike Trout
4. Robinson Cano
5. Andrew McCutchen
6. Matt Kemp
7. Albert Pujols
8. Carlos Gonzalez
9. Joey Votto
10. Prince Fielder

With some arm twisting, I might move that order around a little bit and on a good day, I could probably be talked in to Justin Upton and Buster Posey, but that’s it. I can’t count on a full season of dominant production from any other hitter in the league.

So then, here’s part 2. What do you do if you receive a trade offer for them?

The answer is really quite simple. If you have one of those players and the trade would not involve you receiving another in return, it’s a very easy decline. Those guys will make up for a lot of deficiencies on your team and will do so reliably.

The Heat wouldn’t trade LeBron James for two very good players and the same logic applies in fantasy baseball. Yes, you need a balanced team to win a championship, but you won’t find that balance without at least one elite hitter. If you get one, don’t let him go unless you get one back, you will lose the trade and in turn, someone else will win the league.