Photo courtesy of Tom Hagerty.
I can’t imagine that many (if any) fantasy baseball players haven’t been a little frustrated with pitching so far. Jered Weaver and Zack Greinke are both out for a few months, and some of the game’s best pitchers have some pretty ugly numbers in the early going.
But I’m not worried about all of them. Matt Cain has had only one bad outing, and Cole Hamels is just too good to pitch this poorly. They’ll be some of the league’s best pitchers by season’s end.
But these four guys have all experienced some struggles this year. In some cases, there was a warning. In others, it’s been pretty surprising. But in all cases, the numbers have been bad. So let’s take a look at some big name, top of the rotation guys who have struggled early in 2013 and figure out just what to do with them.
R.A. Dickey
Fans of R.A. Dickey would probably point out his strong game over the weekend against the Royals and say that he’s turned a corner. From my standpoint, I almost would have rather that he had a bad game in Kansas City, because it again brings one question to my mind. How well will the knuckleball work in a dome?
I have made this point before, but when you think of some of the most successful knuckleball pitchers in the game’s history, nearly all of them made their home in outdoor stadiums. Joe Niekro spent much of his prime with the Astros, but the Astrodome was one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball history and he was a contact pitcher who used that to his advantage.
Dickey had two rough outings at Rogers Centre before having a good game at Kauffman Stadium. But I still wonder how well the knuckleball is going to work against hitters who know it’s coming and know it won’t dance around in the wind. I’ll be keeping a close eye on his start on Thursday in Toronto against the White Sox. A bad outing there will be hard to ignore.
Even if Dickey can’t pitch well at home, I’d still keep him on your roster, I’d just be very careful about starting him all the time. Also, if you can work a trade out with a guy who favors big names, look into that.
Roy Halladay
Here’s another guy who showed some signs of coming out of a slump, throwing eight strong innings on Sunday. But as is the case with Dickey, I can’t exactly say that the old Roy Halladay is back based on Sunday alone.
Halladay’s performance came against the Marlins, who are perhaps the worst offensive team in the league and by the time the season is over, may be one of the worst in baseball history. Oh, and Giancarlo Stanton wasn’t in the lineup. The 3-5 hitters on Sunday were Placido Polanco, Greg Dobbs, and Justin Ruggiano.
Having looked at Halladay’s first two starts of the year, he just doesn’t look healthy. Doc is an old school guy and doesn’t strike me as the type who will tell anyone that he’s hurt, and Charlie Manuel doesn’t come off as a guy who will press the issue with a veteran like Halladay, but it doesn’t look like all is well with Halladay.
We can pretty well say that Doc can handle the weaker teams, especially in pitcher’s parks like Miami. If you have him and he has one of those outings, I’d pitch him confidently. But against a team with some pop, I’d be really careful until he shows that he can handle those lineups. Again, like Dickey, don’t be afraid to look for a trade with guys who favor the big names and will wait for 2011’s Halladay to show up, because that’s not going to happen.
Tim Lincecum
I don’t want to be accused of being a homer here, but I still believe in Tim Lincecum, though my faith is dwindling a bit. After a really rough but ultimately successful first start of the season against the Dodgers, Lincecum had a rough game against both the Rockies and Cubs, allowing 10 earned runs over 11 combined innings. Here’s the thing about that, though. One inning did him in in each start, and it was an early inning both times.
So what does that mean? Well, it means progress is being made from 2012, but he’s still got some serious work to do to be a valuable fantasy arm.
We’ll know a lot more after his next start, which is a home game against the Padres. The Padres are a very poor lineup, and will be without Carlos Quentin. Also, it’s a 6:05 local time start, which will make the early innings very hard on hitters with the shadows. Incidentally, his next start after that will also be against the Padres, but in San Diego, another pitcher’s park. Quentin will be back by then, but the Padres have little else to offer.
If Lincecum hasn’t shown that he can be pretty much dominant against bad offenses, I’d look to move him. But if he has, I’d also point out that Lincecum has a habit of pitching much better after the first month of the year. Even last year, he had a much better second half. I wouldn’t be too patient, but I’d let him get through two starts against the Padres before considering moving him.
Jarrod Parker
It’s hard to be positive here, and fantasy owners agree. Parker was at one time owned in nearly every league and now, just over two weeks into the season, he’s owned in less than half.
Unlike the other three, Jarrod Parker doesn’t have much of a track record. He had a good 2012, but that’s it. His career prior to 2012 consisted of one outing. What’s happening to Parker right now screams of a sophomore slump
The road doesn’t get any easier for Parker. His next outing is against the Rays in Tampa, which could go either way. Tampa is a very talented team, but they’re struggling. At the very least, I’d make Parker a spot starter. Realistically, I’d cut him (teammate A.J. Griffin is off to a sparkling start and is still available in most leagues).
With Dickey, Halladay, and Lincecum, if you cut them now and they turn around, chances are that you won’t get them back. With Parker, it’s much more realistic. The A’s are a small market team and people aren’t going to race out to snatch him from free agency. So, I’d cut him. If you have a deep bench, I might just leave him on the bench, but sophomore slumps are a big part of baseball, and Parker seems to be suffering through one in a big way right now.