Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire: Brandon Crawford

Photo courtesy of rocor.

There are many keys to contending in a fantasy baseball league. One of them is this: When you’re weak at a position and see a waiver wire at that position guy on a hot streak, grab him. But that’s only part of the equation. When said player is cooling down, realize that he was on the waiver wire to begin with and send him back there. When a star slumps, you can be confident that he’ll climb out of it. When a waiver wire guy slumps, you shouldn’t have such confidence.

Now, shortstop is one of the weakest fantasy positions. One of the bright performers there through April was Brandon Crawford of the San Francisco Giants. The question is — was Crawford just a waiver wire guy, or is he a viable option at shortstop? Let’s take a look.

First, May hasn’t been especially kind to Crawford, but the month is still early. So, let’s just take a look at what he did in April, and what those numbers would look like if he repeated April’s numbers every month.

So, is that sustainable? Some of it? All of it? None of it? Let’s take a look.

What I like

The power numbers are phenomenal, but that’s not what I am going to focus on because (SPOILER ALERT), they’re not sustainable. But I love that Crawford also had five doubles in April. Those are sustainable, and how lefties not named Barry Bonds need to hit at AT&T Park. It’s not a power park for anyone but if you’re a lefty and swing for the fences, you’re going to become very frustrated very fast. Conversely, if you swing for the gaps and use the park’s size to your advantage, good things can happen. So, Crawford being on about a 30-double pace in 2013 is a really positive sign.

Overall, I like the average and while he’s slumped through the early part of May, it’s sustainable. Actually, he can improve quite a bit on it, at least if 2012 is an indicator. In the final two months of the season in 2012, Crawford hit a solid .284, doing so most of the time from the bottom of the Giants batting order. Eight hitters don’t usually get great pitches to hit so batting over .280 over two months is nothing to sneeze at.

Also adding to Crawford’s value is that the Giants lineup is in more a state of flux than it was probably thought to be at the beginning of the year. The primary lineup that won the world series was (in order), Angel Pagan, Marco Scutaro, Pablo Sandoval, Buster Posey, Hunter Pence, Brandon Belt, Gregor Blanco, Crawford, then the pitcher. That lineup returned in 2013, with the only tweak being Andres Torres, who now platoons with Blanco. Barring injury, there wasn’t much that would happen with Crawford, except for possibly jumping the Blanco/Torres platoon. Either way, a 7/8 hitter in a National League lineup is a fantasy dead zone.

But Belt didn’t have a good April, nor did Scutaro. Heck, neither did Posey, but he’s not moving in the order. Those struggles moved Crawford around the order, into more fantasy friendly spots. Whether that stays or not remains to be seen but if nothing else, realize that Bruce Bochy may look to get his older veterans (namely Scutaro) a few extra days off.

Something else that’s nice is Crawford’s glove. No, that doesn’t help your fantasy team one bit, but you’d better believe that Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, Tim Lincecum, Barry Zito, Ryan Vogelsong, Sergio Romo, and the rest of the Giants pitchers appreciate having him out there. That basically means that even if he slumps, his glove will still get him quality playing time. That’s really significant when you’re dealing with waiver wire hitters. That will give Crawford more chances to get his average up to around .280, and even improve the counted stats.

What I don’t like

Again, the power numbers aren’t sustainable. No lefty other than Bonds has hit 30 home runs for the Giants since AT&T Park opened. The prevailing winds push the ball away from the short right-field foul pole and into the power alley, which is headlined by a right-center field wall 421 feet away from home plate. So, while five homers in a month is a good start, don’t look for the pace of 30 to hold. Remember, he entered 2013 with seven homers in 631 career at-bats. Realistically, if he gets to 15, you should be pretty encouraged.

Also, while the lineup has been in more flux than probably expected, don’t look for Crawford to get above the six-hole. That will provide some RBI chances when Sandoval, Posey, and Pence reach base, but it’s not exactly a place you want your fantasy players hitting. To really succeed in fantasy baseball, you need at-bats and the further down you bat, the less you’ll see the plate.

Also, while hitting sixth could help his RBI totals, it will probably hurt his runs scored. Batting eighth isn’t what you want, but at least you have a chance of having the lineup turn over when you reach base. The only reason Belt would consistently bat behind Crawford is if he’s scuffling, and the Blanco/Torres platoon isn’t exactly a run producing duo. So, don’t look for Crawford to make his away around the diamond batting sixth in that order.

What I think

Crawford’s a better real player than a fantasy guy. Now, his bat has shown steady improvement since his MLB debut in 2011 so I don’t doubt that he’s a player on the rise, but he’s in the wrong part of the wrong order to carry great fantasy value.

Having said that, if he’s riding a hot streak and you need a SS, don’t be afraid to sweep him up. But from a fantasy perspective, I wouldn’t expect  anything more than hot streak production until the All-Star-Break. We can take at his numbers then to see if he’s a guy who should be permanently rostered. Right now, he hasn’t done enough to deserve that ownership rate.