Photo courtesy of ElCapitanBSC.
I know that everyone likes putting labels on things. Well, I like putting labels on things and since I’m writing this, I’m going to go ahead and assume that the entire human race likes the same things I do.
So, with that being said, what do we call Kyle Kendrick? Being owned in 54 percent of Yahoo leagues and 86 percent of ESPN leagues, he’s not a true sleeper. By the way, don’t ask me if I can explain why there’s such a discrepancy. I can not. Still, it’s quite possible that if you’re reading this, he’s available in your league. That’s pretty amazing when you look at his numbers over his last 17 starts, dating back to last season. Take a look, going start-by-start.
| Date | Opponent | IP | H | BB | ER | K | Decision |
| 8/14/12 | at Miami Marlins | 7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 6 | Win |
| 8/19/12 | at Milwaukee Brewers | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | Win |
| 8/24/12 | Washington Nationals | 6.2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | Win |
| 8/30/12 | New York Mets | 7.2 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 6 | Win |
| 9/4/12 | at Cincinnati Reds | 6 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | Loss |
| 9/10/12 | Miami Marlins | 7 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | Win |
| 9/15/12 | at Houston Astros | 5 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 4 | Loss |
| 9/21/12 | Atlanta Braves | 6.2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 6 | Win |
| 9/26/12 | Washington Nationals | 2 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 1 | Loss |
| 10/1/12 | at Washingotn Nationals | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | Win |
| 4/5/13 | Kansas City Royals | 5.2 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 3 | Loss |
| 4/10/13 | New York Mets | 6 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 6 | Win |
| 4/16/13 | at Cincinnati Reds | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | ND |
| 4/21/13 | St. Louis Cardinals | 6 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 6 | ND |
| 4/26/13 | at New York Mets | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | Win |
| 5/2/13 | vs. Miami Marlins | 7 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 5 | Win |
| 5/7/13 | at San Francisco Giants | 7 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 6 | Win |
Which gives us these totals over those 17 starts:
| IP | H | BB | ER | K | QS | W-L | ERA | WHIP |
| 110 | 90 | 21 | 30 | 83 | 14 | 11-4 | 2.34 | 1.01 |
Now, consider that 17 starts is roughly half of a season. So, multiply this by two and you’re looking at a real Cy Young contender. Given his previous seasons, this is certainly surprising. The question is: how surprising?
The run at the end of 2012 made that season look a lot better. Before that August 14 gem against the Marlins, his ERA stood at 4.86. Now, at the end of that start, it was 4.53. A drop that big can be attributed to lack of innings. But still, by the end of the year, his ERA was 3.90. So, in a month-and-a-half, he dropped nearly a full point of of his ERA. That’s solid, but on it’s own, not necessarily indicative of anything more than a nice hot streak, even when you factor in this season’s success.
What is indicative of a good pitcher is a cool 3.22 ERA he recorded in 2011. Yes, Kendrick had his struggles through 2010 but since the start of the 2011 season, he’s got a 3.44 ERA and 1.228 WHIP. So, how is this season different?
Well, Kendrick’s throwing the ball over the plate. In 2010 and 2011, he walked 2.4 hitters per nine innings. In 2012, that number was up to 2.8. Thus far in 2013, he’s walking fewer than two hitters per nine inning, which is a strong rate for just about anyone. Kendrick is also allowing fewer than eight hits per nine innings for the first time in his career, which can be directly attributed to not walking guys.
When you’re not walking hitters, you’re not falling behind in the count much. That’s a big thing because when you fall behind in the count, you’re forced to challenge hitters with pitches over the middle of the plate. Naturally, that makes you more susceptible to allowing hits.
Conversely, when you jump ahead in the count, you can throw more off-speed stuff, nibbling the corners more. When hitters are down in the count, they have to protect the plate and swing at those pitches. Now, Kendrick’s not a big strikeout guy. He’s currently striking hitters out at a rate of 6.6 per nine innings, the same as it was in 2012. While that number is up from his previous career total (4.1 K’s per 9 innings), it’s still not dangerously high.
But when hitters are swinging at breaking pitches on the corner, or even out of the zone, the contact they make is not going to be especially loud. So, you get great runs like the one Kendrick has had over the last 17 starts. I’m not going to predict that Kendrick will literally stay at this rate all throughout 2013. But if he keeps throwing strikes, don’t expect that much of a drop.
It’s good to know that I’m not the only one who feels so. On Twitter, I posed a simple question to our followers. What do people feel about Kendrick? Is he for real or not? We got this response from Bryce Liesmer, one of our readers.
@FBCrackerjacks I do. Numbers show it. He has been good for last 1.5 years.
— Bryce Liesemer (@liefmeyer) May 9, 2013
True as that it, it actually goes a little beyond that. The Marlins lineup that he started this run against last year included both Jose Reyes and Giancarlo Stanton. Ryan Braun and Aramis Ramirez had great offensive seasons in 2012. In this run, he’s recorded at least one quality start against the Nationals, Reds, Giants, Cardinals, and Braves, who were the National League’s five playoff teams in 2012.
While the Nats did rough him up once in 2012, the other two failed quality starts came against struggling teams. This year’s Royals have a real hit-or-miss offense, and they roughed Kendrick up. Last year’s Astros lost 107 games, but roughed him up. Without those two bad starts, the numbers are even better.
What that all says is that I don’t worry about Kendrick when a tough opponent comes up. He’s turned a corner in his career and while I do expect him to normalize a bit throughout this season, he needs to be swiped up. If Kendrick’s available in your league, get out there and keep your rivals from grabbing him. I don’t want to say that Kendrick’s success has been a complete secret, but too many fantasy owners don’t seem aware of it. Don’t make that mistake.