Gio is listening to Kenny Chesney. He’s a big fan. Image courtesy of flickr.
Some players have had a rough start to the season. And, since Crackerjacks has a minimum word limit, I’ll even tell you who!
Gio Gonzalez had an ERA of 5 after his first seven trips on the mound. His last two starts have been solid (with the latest being superb), so he’s managed to bring his numbers closer in line to what we have come to expect.
What’s disappointing is that we saw what he was capable of last year, and so far we haven’t seen the Gio we’ve come to know and love.
Reasons for Worry
Gio has been stingy with the long ball over his career. In fact, he gave up just 9 over nearly 200 innings of work last year to lead the National League. If you keep the ball in the yard, you keep runs off the board. Sometimes it’s not complicated.
But what’s complicating things is that he’s given up 5 already, just 50 innings into the season. Last season he had cut his HR/9 in half, so it was due for some regression, but if home runs allowed stay at this high rate his ERA will suffer.
Say your prayers, sprinkle some pixie dust, or offer up whatever voodoo you do, because Gio owners have to hold on to hope that these early home runs are a fluke and not a portent to come. Considering buying low on him if you think his HR levels will bounce back to his career levels. (They will. Just trust me.)
Reasons for Optimism
Gio is struggling with his control. So why is that optimism, you ask? Gio has always struggled with his control. There’s nothing to see here.
From ’09-’11 he walked 4.3 per 9. He is carrying a 4.2 mark this season, which looks like an outlier only because of his 3.4 career best last year. Even walking over 4 batters a game in the past Gio has kept an ERA just over 3. His walks aren’t cause for concern…
…because he’s still striking out over 9 batters per 9. His walk and K numbers don’t indicate at all that Gio is in trouble.
Moving Forward
As I write this Gio has had two solid starts. The window for buying low is closing quickly. While it looks like Gio won’t have the career year he enjoyed last year, there isn’t anything to indicate that he won’t continue to lower his ERA moving forward. Couple that with elite strikeout rates and a fantastic offense behind him that should lead to plenty of WINS, and you have a fantastic fantasy baseball pitcher.
If you have a panicky owner in one of your leagues, then give him a solid offer for Gio. He’s a good buy low candidate. If you are a Gio owner, then sit tight and make sure you don’t give up on him too quickly. You’ll want his K’s later.