I’d Roster That – May 29, 2013

Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

Another week and another installment of I’d Roster that. This week we have a couple of left fielders, the shell of a three-true outcome hitter, and a $13 million dollar pitcher trying to put 2012 behind him. Let’s take them in alphabetical order this week, because that’s something people really enjoy*.

*I have no idea if people enjoy alphabetical order, but that’s how my list is currently sorted.

Michael Brantley (26, left handed hitting left fielder, Cleveland Indians).

Now in his 5th season of professional baseball. His career triple slash is .278/.332/.378, and he’s an above average left fielder, have just recently transitioned to the corner after spending 2012 as the Indians’ primary center fielder. This year, however, Brantley is off to a hot start through his first 49 games hitting .304/.356/.391 with more power and speed than he has shown in the past.

Brantley could crack double-digit home runs for the first time in his career in 2013, and while his walk rate is down and his strike out rate is up (both worse than his career averages), he’s still sporting a high OBP and he’s been opportunistic on the base paths picking up three stolen bases. Brantley’s high average in 2013 is due in large part to his .340 BABIP. He’s hitting more ground balls and less line drives than he normally would, so expect that BABIP to come back to earth, as it does not appear that he suddenly started making better contact which allowed more of his balls in play to drop for hits.

Michael Brantley should still have center field eligibility after playing 144 games there a year ago, and fantasy owners should be thankful for that as his value as a corner outfielder is significantly reduced without more power. As his BABIP comes back down (and I don’t expect it to fall too far below .300) he’ll resemble the player he has been the past couple of years. Not a ton of upside here, as I expect him to regress in the 2nd half, but that CF eligibility gives him enough of a boost for me to say, “I’d Roster That.”

Adam Dunn (33, left handed hitting designated hitter/first basemen, Chicago White Sox).

As always, this is a player that is always going to strike out a lot, so Dunn has to talk a lot of walks and hit a lot of dingers to provide fantasy value, especially since his batting average is just .180 since coming over from the National League.

This year, Dunn is walking just 10.1% of the time (his career walk rate is 16.1%), and he’s striking out almost as often as he did in 2011 when he was one of the worst players in baseball history. It is hard to even consider putting a guy on your team that is hitting .156/.250/.395. The biggest change for Adam Dunn over the past few years is his inability to destroy fastballs.

He’s went from a player that was 20+ runs above average against fastballs to a player that is just barely above league average against heaters.  Perhaps because he’s cheating a little bit, maybe doing some guessing, he’s been more susceptible to offspeed pitches, especially change ups and sliders. I’ve probably dug a little deeper here than makes practical sense, as everyone except Robin Ventura knows that you Don’t Roster That.

Ervin Santana (30, right handed starting pitcher, Kansas City Royals).

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim were so desperate to get rid of Ervin Santana that they were willing to give him away and pay $1 million of his salary Minor League closer…for Brandon Sisk (who wound up needing Tommy John surgery and won’t be ready to pitch again until his age 28 season, still without cracking a MLB roster).

In 2010 and 2011, Santana was 28-22 with a 3.65 ERA over 451.1 innings with a 2.39:1 K:BB rate. In 2012 Santana fell victim to some bad luck, giving up home runs at a rate of 2.0/9 innings, almost double his career average to that point in time. As a result, his ERA ballooned to 5.16.  Beyond the problem with the long ball, Santana left just 69.8% of runners on base (down from better than 75% in 10/11).  Other than that, his peripheral numbers remained mostly unchanged (K%, BB%, AVG, WHIP).

This year Santana looks more like his old self, though I would expect his 20.6% K rate and 3.6% BB rate to come back down a bit as the season wears on. But Santana looks like the pitcher than could be expected to throw 200+ innings of above average baseball. Santana will certainly benefit from throwing half of his games at spacious Kauffman stadium (although The Big A in Anaheim was even friendlier against the long ball), and from facing weaker offenses in the American League Central.

Don’t expect the 3.14 ERA to continue through the summer, but I am not afraid to say 2012 was a blip on the radar for Santana. I’d Roster That.

Vernon Wells (34*, right handed hitting left fielder, New York Yankees).

In his last season in Toronto (2010) Vernon Wells hit .273/.331/.515 with a 7.7% walk rater and a 13.0% strike out rate. He hit 31 home runs and post a wRC+ of 126.  This year Wells has dipped into the fountain of youth and is hitting .264/.315/.462 with a very similar  walk rate and strike out rate to what he did in 2010 (and the Yankees are on the hook for less than half of his salary in 2013).

*How is Vernon Wells only 34?  He’s only the 10th oldest person to play left field so far in 2013!

Wells’ line drive rates are up, ground ball rates are down, and more of his fly balls (15.9%) are ending up in the seats than they ever have in his career. With Curtis Granderson back on the disabled list, the Yankees will continue to have holes in their outfield and Wells should continue to have plenty of playing time on this aging New York team. He’s even managed to steal four bases and has driven in 24 runs already in just under 200 plate appearances. I’d Roster That

All stats through Monday night.

If you have anyone you’d like to get a second opinion on, feel free to reach out in any way you know how. Our Twitter and Facebook pages, the Twitter pages of myself, Clave, Dixon, or Nash, as well as any of the email addresses listed.