Photo courtesy of Cristine Maybourne.
A few weeks back, I wrote a piece about pitchers that will be coming back from various injuries this summer. There was one glaring omission from that list. Fear not. I was saving the best for last. For those of you who have been shouting Brandon Beachy’s name from the rooftops — this is for you.
The plan is for Beachy to have 2-4 starts and return to the Braves rotation in mid-late. Of course, this can change depending on the health of his elbow and how his stamina progresses. After his fist rehab start you are more likely to see four or more starts before he returns to Atlanta.
His first rehab assignment with Triple-A Gwinnett last Friday showed promise but also some control issues. He allowed two runs over four innings, walked two and threw a wild pitch. This was his first start since he underwent Tommy John surgery last June. As with all Tommy John injuries, control will be an issue for a while until he gets some mileage on his newly rebuilt elbow.
He reached the high-80’s and even approached 90 on his fastball which is a little below his normal velocity before his injury. His arm strength seems to be recovering and you will see improvement on the radar gun once he builds his stamina back up.
One of the troubling things about his first start back is that he only threw 70 pitches, with only 35 strikes. The Braves at this point will give him some extra rehab starts to help him get his command back to a respectable level. This may push his return date back to late June.
Once he returns, he will post a good K/9 backed by a good offense to put runs — and in turn wins, on the board. His K/9 before his injury was 7.56, which was considerably less than his 2011 season where he posted an elite K/9 rate of 10.74. He will have control problems in the beginning so I expect a K/9 closer to his 2012 rate.
His calling card has always been his control but it will take some patience in the early going to see where he stands post-surgery. The Braves will be patient and allow him several rehab starts to make sure he is ready. I don’t think his pinpoint control will be on display in the early going. He might not regain his outstanding control until the 2014 season.
Even with a few struggles he should post an ERA below 3.70 which is what he approached in 2011. An improved offense will allow him to get away with a few more mistakes that he would normally be on the hook for.
As far as potential, Brandon Beachy the most experience and raw talent out of all the starters slated to return before the All-Star break. Based on what he has accomplished in his last two seasons, he should be a must own pitcher. Keep a close eye on his walk rates in the early going to know when you can safely activate him on your roster.
Word is spreading around fantasy message boards about Brandon Beachy’s impending return. Go grab him now before someone else does. He could also be targeted in a trade but make sure you get him along with another player to safeguard your deal.
Good luck to everyone, as we start to approach the “dog days of summer.”