When will the victorious Matt Kemp reappear? Image courtesy of lat.
As you may have heard, Matt Kemp was placed on the 15 Day DL with a hamstring injury, and the loss of this first round draft pick meant the dreams of many fantasy owners were dashed.
Kemp wasn’t hitting much even before the injury so we’ll take a look at that, share a few thoughts on his injury, then finally offer a few alternatives for your lineup.
Where was Kemp hitting his home runs before the injury? Nowhere. Which is a kind of where, I suppose. Even in Kemp’s poor 2010 season when he was dating (and, I’m certain, deeply in love with) Rihanna, he slugged .450 and hit 28 homers. At the time of his injury this season he was on pace for a 10-homer season while slugging a Ben Revere like .335.
To add insult to injury, Kemp – a career .292 hitter – was hitting just .251 this season, again eerily similar to his 2010 love-lorn stinker when he hit .249. So how can go from slugging over .500 to being an offensive drain? I had my suspicions and a Google search confirmed it…
…he’s been spotted with Rihanna again! I knew that trouble-making starlet had Kemp’s heart tied in knots!
On the off chance that Rihanna is not to blame – AS IF! – we’ll look a little more deeply if there are any numbers that have led to his poor season, or if injuries could be to blame.
Early on his strikeouts skyrocketed, leading many to believe he wasn’t fully recovered from his off-season shoulder surgery, which may have forced a mechanical maladjustment in his swing. He’s been swinging at pitches he can’t drive, and not making contact to boot (career low Contact%). Further, when he has hit the ball this season it has traveled just 266 ft, generating just 2.7% HR/FB. For comparison, the league average distance is around 275-280 feet. Kemp for his career has been nothing but well above league average in this regard. Something has been terribly amiss.
Could it be that this hamstring injury comes as a blessing in disguise? 15 days on the shelf allows his hamstring to heal, but it also gives rest to his shoulder, if indeed it has been bothering him (Don Mattingly thinks so, on the record). Add in extra time to pour over film and this DL stint could be just what the doctor ordered.
If Matt Kemp returns as the real Matt Kemp, his updated rest of the season projections could have him hitting .292/.349/.490 with 20 home runs and 12 stolen bases. That’s a still valuable player, albeit one that is carrying lots of ifs.
Of course, none of this matters right now, as you need to replace him in your fantasy baseball lineups. Having Matt Kemp on two of my teams, I feel your pain.
In one league, I slotting in Alejandro De Aza, but he’s a player having troubles of his own, having been getting on base well below career averages. In another league, I’m riding a hot J.D. Martinez, but I have no confidence that’s anything more than a bandaid.
Seth Smith, Carlos Quentin, Aaron Hicks (finally), Drew Stubbs (while it lasts), and Delmon Young (lord help us) have been swinging a hot bat lately and generally have low ownership and couldn’t be any worse over the next couple weeks than Kemp has been thus far this season.
The Dodgers themselves have moved Andre Ethier to centerfield, which is a ridiculous concept and I’m sure will bring another roster move. Our hopes and dreams are on Yasiel Puig, but that’s unlikely. More likely is Joc Pederson. Regardless, a roster move by the Dodgers will surely have been made by the time this is published.
When Kemp returns it would be fool hearty not to slot him back into your lineup and hope for the best. Superstar players don’t typically become terrible overnight…unless Rihanna is involved, that is.