May 18, 2013; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves catcher Evan Gattis (24) celebrates after hitting a two-run home run in the eighth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-USA TODAY Sports
Evan Gattis has been one of the most interesting stories in baseball in 2013, mostly because of his back story. So far, despite striking out over 3 times as much as he walks (doing so less than 7 percent of the time so far), Gattis has been hitting really well statistically, especially for power (with a higher Isolated Slugging than batting average so far this season). The Braves have had some problems finding a position for Gattis because he is not considered a very good defensive catcher and attempts to put him in the corner outfield have not been very aesthetically pleasing, to say the least. What he does with the bat will determine how Gattis fits into the big leagues, as he will need to force himself into the lineup with the bat, causing the team to live with is defense (or an American League team trading for him and using him as the DH). If the bat only proves to be good or above average, than there is a chance that he will be no more than a right-handed (and thus less valuable) Eric Hinske, used mainly as a pinch hitter.
Here is where pitchers have been pitching Gattis, the average locations of all pitches, along with some of the notable results:
This is a somewhat strange strike zone. Gattis is getting pitched low and away like the majority of hitters, but his whiffs are high and away instead of lower than the average pitch. He actually has proven to be a pretty good low ball hitter, with his singles and doubles coming on low pitches, and his outs coming on pitches above the middle of the strike zone. Up and in the strike zone is where he is getting homers, further complicating the problem. It doesn’t seem that the problem is bat speed, as the high whiffs might suggest, but pitching him low doesn’t seem to be working. To make sure that bat speed isn’t a problem, here is his strike zone of all pitches thrown at 95 MPH or more, along with a result labelled on each one:
The whiff percentage is high (I count 5 out of 30), but pitchers aren’t throwing inside to him at all with the plus fastballs. So if there is a problem with Gattis’ bat speed that will cause him to have problems with fastballs up and in, pitchers and teams don’t seem to know it yet. Instead, they seem to be testing his plate coverage, really pounding the outside part of the zone. On those plus fastballs, at least so far, he isn’t handling those pitches very well.
What kind of pitchers is Gattis succeeding against? Here are the release points of the pitchers, labelled with the MLBAM pitch tags:
I actually had to double check the data on here to make sure there wasn’t a mistake here. Despite being a right-handed hitter, Gattis has not hit a left-handed fastball for a home run yet this season, hitting two changeups and a slider. Every single home run against right-handed pitchers (and since it is too small of a sample size to really take much from his slugging, it is much too small of a sample to really look at his platoon splits) have been on what you would call hard pitches, fastballs, cutters and sinkers. As his whiff release point chart shows, he is having a lot of problems with right-handed sliders:
The graph also shows that Gattis is struggling with left-handed fastballs, which seems to be really bizarre. The best explanation I have is that lefties are throwing their fastballs on the outside (or arm side for them) part of the plate, and Gattis cannot reach them for some reason. Here are the 4-seam fastballs (MLBAM tags) thrown by left-handers against Gattis so far this year.
16 of them left-handed fastballs are on the glove side of the plate, with 19 on the arm side part of the plate, nearly an even split. The graph seems to show that left-handers are throwing him plenty of fastballs in the strike zone (I count 20 out of the 35), throwing it both inside and outside. They are throwing a lot of fastballs high, but also going low and in on him (something that usually isn’t a great pattern for success for opposite platoon pitchers). That is to say, the tendencies here don’t seem to be very helpful, because there isn’t enough data to show tendencies. Speaking of his tendencies, Gattis’ spray chart (this one courtesy of Texas Leaguers) shows that he is a dead pull hitter:
This is why his homers on inside pitches isn’t surprising, and I think explains why he was able to clobber a couple of left-handed changeups over the fence (by just being ahead of them while they are outside, allowing him to pull the pitch). It also may explain why he not doing as well on up and away pitches.
I wondered if it was something mechanical, since he does have an unorthodox swing, so I took three screenshots of him making contact on the ball, one on a pitch down the middle, one on a pitch outside, and one on a pitch inside (all against right-handed pitchers). Here is him making contact on a pitch on the inside part of the strike zone:
Here is him on an outside pitch:
Here is a pitch in the middle of the plate (Doug Fister’s foot gets in the way):
Gattis’ swing is clearly build for low and in pitches, as he leans in and down with his body (perhaps because of his starting point). Because of his bat head angle, clearly not a flat swing, but instead one that is tilted down, some sort of uppercut swing, he can’t really get to outside pitches without sacrificing all his power by getting in a physical position that doesn’t allow him to use his strength. As you see on middle pitches, he is more or less the same, able to get the bat head in front without getting in a position that causes his hands to go down, which wouldn’t let him control the bat or pull the ball. So clearly, from a plate discipline perspective, he should avoid those outside pitches. When you look at the pitches that Gattis has swung and missed at that is outside the traditional strike zone, we see that outside or high is where he is chasing
Because of his low stance and strange uppercut swing, he is having a lot of problems with pitches up that he swings at. The raw power and strength is almost certainly real. When he hits a ball well, it is going to go out. The problem is that there are some pretty obvious holes in his swing and approach. There are places, both in and outside of the strike zone, that you can pitch to him and get him out. Because of this, I am skeptical of whether or not he can hit enough in the Majors to be an impact player, one that plays well everyday, and he almost certainly won’t hit like a star for an extended period of time. He can be useful role on a team, as an occasional DH, pinch hitter, 1st baseman, catcher in a pinch, and I don’t want to say what he is doing is a mirage, but the approach and swing mechanics don’t suggest that he will be an elite hitter longterm.