Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.
When the A’s lost to the Indians on May 6, something seemed wrong. The team was in the midst of a losing streak and Jarrod Parker, the man who finished fifth in AL Rookie of the Year voting in 2012, appeared to be mired in a sophomore slump.The loss moved his W-L record to 1-5, his ERA was 7.34, while his WHIP was just a notch below 2.
Fortunes have changed for the A’s since then, but also for their young pitcher. Parker’s taken the hill five times since then, and produced the following results:
| Date: Opponent | IP | H | BB | ER | K | Dec. | ERA | WHIP |
| 5/11: at SEA | 6.1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 5 | W | 4.26 | 1.105 |
| 5/17: vs. KC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | ND | 1.29 | 0.857 |
| 5/22: at TEX | 7 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 5 | L | 3.86 | 1.00 |
| 5/28: vs. SF | 7 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | W | 2.57 | 0.857 |
| 6/2: vs. CWS | 6.1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | W | 0.00 | 0.631 |
| Total | 33.2 | 20 | 10 | 9 | 26 | 3-1 | 2.41 | 0.891 |
That’s productive. In that time, his season ERA has moved to 4.90, while his WHIP is at 1.44. In a vacuum, those numbers aren’t very good. This is yet another example of early season stats being a bit misleading. So, what’s changed?
Well, thanks to Fangraphs, we can have a look at Parker’s advanced numbers.
| Month | Line Drive % | Fly Ball % | Ground Ball % |
| April | 17.9 | 34.9 | 47.2 |
| May | 15.6 | 42.2 | 42.2 |
| June | 15.4 | 53.8 | 30.8 |
He’s allowing fewer line drives, although not at an alarming rate. You could say that the early season hit rates were a bit unlucky, as that’s not a bad groundball rate and as you can see, when hitters started hitting the ball in the air more, Parker’s numbers improved. Actually, more of his fly balls were home runs in May than they were in April.
So, we have to look at something else, the walks. A defense can not help a pitcher who issues free passes. One pitcher with eight Gold Glove fielders will be helpless if he can’t throw the ball over the plate.
So, when a pitcher issues walks, what happens? Well, those line drives and home runs all of a sudden hurt quite a bit more.
Over those last five starts, Parker has walked 2.67 hitters per nine innings. In 2012, he walked 3.1 per nine. In honesty, both of those numbers could be a little better, but they’re both a far cry from the 4.71 per nine innings that he was issuing through the aforementioned start against the Indians.
I’ve said this before, and I’ll say it again. Actually, anyone who watches baseball will say this. But if you’re not walking too many guys, it also means that you’re generally ahead in the count. When you’re ahead in the count, you can throw the ball to corners. When you’re behind in the count, you have to throw the ball over the plate and hope for the best.
So, his BABIP in April was .375, while in May it was .217. Those are maybe extremes, and neither can be expected for a full year. But if a pitcher is ahead in the count, the balls hit against him aren’t going to be hit as hard. Generally speaking, harder hit balls are the ones that fall for base hits.
In a more general sense, what’s really encouraging is that Parker has consistently adjusted well to the league’s adjustments on him. After a 2.18 ERA, 1.03 WHIP in June of 2012, Parker was roughed up with a 5.34 ERA/1.352 WHIP in July, and 4.71 ERA/1.514 WHIP in August. He responded in the season’s final month with a 2.63 ERA/1.073 WHIP.
Now, we’re seeing a similar ability to bounce back in 2013. It’s also important to remember that Parker is only 24, so his adjustments only figure to get stronger as he learns how to pitch more at the Major League level.
Remember, Oakland is a fantastic pitcher’s park, they’re a good team who scores runs, and have a bullpen that holds leads and strands inherited runners. Parker’s fantasy ownership rate is definitely moving up, but it’s still relatively low. I don’t know that we’re looking at a Cy Young Award winner just yet, but I’m confident in my belief that Parker’s good days will outnumber his bad for the rest of the year.