Fantasy Baseball Strategy: What to do with Dan Uggla?

Photo courtesy of Mark Kortum.

Ask most fantasy baseball players who the best second baseman is and you’ll hear one name significantly more than others — Robinson Cano. You’ll also hear Dustin Pedroia and Ian Kinsler pretty shortly after that, with the names of Ben Zobrist and Brandon Phillips also probably coming up in people’s rankings.

But despite his power, a name you’re probably not going to be hearing a lot of is Dan Uggla. Because while Uggla can hit homers at a better rate than just about anyone else at his position, he’s not terribly well-rounded. But while he’s not going to show up on many Top Second Basemen lists, he is owned in over 80 percent of ESPN leagues and 60 percent of Yahoo leagues, so plenty of you like what he brings to the table. Looking forward to the season’s final three months, what should Uggla’s fantasy owners do?

First, let’s take a look at what the numbers show us

Numbers are through play on Monday, June 24. :

With those numbers in mind, let’s ask and try to answer some questions.

• Will his average stay that bad?

We’re starting with a negative, because I don’t like it to get much better. Certainly, if you’re hoping that Uggla will find his 2010 form (,287 average), you’re going to be really upset. Since coming to the Braves before the 2011 season, Uggla has hit .233 and .220. Not only are those totals bad, but obviously getting worse year-by-year. So, .195 doesn’t seem that far-fetched.

Now, there’s a little bit of potential hope. Last week, Jeff Schultz of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution wrote that there may be a reason for Uggla’s struggles.

"Uggla confirmed after the game that he started having vision problems “late last year” and was diagnosed with astigmatism in spring training, but wasn’t overly concerned until recently. He was fitted for new contact lenses Thursday and said he will try those for a while before considering Lasik surgery."

This sure sounds like it could be a good reason for hope. But looking a little deeper, the potential for false hope is greater. Uggla hit .220 last year, and said that he didn’t start having these problems until late in the year. He also hit .282 in the season’s final month, raising his average from .208 entering September to the finishing total of .220.

So, when the issue was supposedly beginning to impact him, it wasn’t showing in his numbers. Actually, the only change was a good one. Now, maybe the problem’s worse this year and these changes will make it better. I’m still not that eager to project that he’ll be significantly better in the batting average department than he was in 2012.

Let’s round his at-bat pace up to 500. If he gets 500 at-bats and bats .220, that’s 110 hits. That would put him at 64-264 for the rest of the season, which works out to a .242 average.

I’ll admit that that looks a lot better than his current, under the Mendoza Line mark, but that’s a long way from being good, even at a position like second base.

• Doesn’t something have to give with power?

Yes, something has to give. If he hits more than 27 homers, Uggla will likely drive in more than 59 runs. If he drives in 59 runs, he likely won’t get to 27 homers. Sure, it’s mathematically possible, but highly unlikely, especially playing in a potent Atlanta offense.

In 2012, Aramis Ramirez, A.J. Pierzynski, Jose Bautista, Matt Holliday, Garrett Jones, and Jason Heyward all hit 27 home runs. Only two of those players, Bautista and Pierzynski, failed to drive in 80 runs. Bautista’s came in an injury-shortened, 332 at-bat campaign, while Pierzynski just missed, driving in 77 runs.

So, it’s just not probable for that rate to continue. Something really has to give.

• What’s going to give?
  

This is where Uggla’s owners can be happy, because I don’t see the home run totals dropping at any significant rate. Uggla hit 30 or more homers every year between 2007 and 2011, and hit 27 in 2006. His 19 home run season in 2012 sticks out. That would worry me a bit, as you never like seeing someone’s most recent year be his worst, but the fact that he’s hit 13 homers before the season’s halfway point gives me reason to believe that his power is back.

So with that, you’d think that Uggla would drive in more runs. The biggest question mark around that is where he bats in the order. Uggla generally bats around seventh, which isn’t a traditionally big RBI spot. Still, that puts the likes of Brian McCann, B.J. Upton, Freddie Freeman, and occasionally Justin Upton in position to be driven in by him. Not a group that can’t get better, but it leaves Uggla plenty of RBI chances.

• What about the rest of the categories?
  

We’ll start with steals, because that’s easy. He can’t possibly fall off of his pace, but don’t expect that Uggla will steal anything more than maybe two bags for the rest of the year. He’s just not a base stealer — never has been.

Runs is the biggest question mark for me. Despite a dismal batting average, Uggla does have a decent OBP. In 2012, his 94 walks tied Joey Votto for the National League lead, and he’s on a similar pace this year. So, while OBP isn’t used in standard leagues (and .323 isn’t a great OBP even if your league uses it), Uggla does reach base significantly more than his batting average would say that he should. To score a run, you first have to reach base.

Still, batting seventh, I just can’t see that run rate to stay the same. In a National League lineup, the pitcher will almost always bunt with a man on base. So even if the lineup turns over while Uggla is on base, there’s a good chance that at least one out will have already been recorded. Actually, there’s a better chance that two outs will have already been recorded.

The acquisition of both Upton brothers has knocked Uggla down in the order, so his first two seasons in Atlanta (88 runs in 2011, 86 in 2012) are tough to use as measuring sticks.

Now, I’m not saying that he’ll never score a run again, but 75 is a pretty strong pace for a National League seventh hitter. So, while I like the RBI totals to get better, the runs will tail off a little bit. Which brings me to this.

• What kind of numbers are we looking at for the rest of the season?

Based on what we’ve already gone over, let’s see how Uggla projects for the rest of the year.

• What should be done?

It’s funny, other than runs, I’m projecting improvement in every standard category. Still, I don’t see much value with those numbers. You have to really need a bump in power, or be in an incredibly deep league (probably with at least one MI spot) for those numbers to be very valuable.

Uggla’s relatively high ownership rate comes from his name value, and the lack of depth at his position. Still, waiver wire guys like Gordon Beckham, Kelly Johnson, Jurickson Profar, and DJ LeMahieu are at least as valuable overall. In the case of the latter two, there’s some serious overall potential.

I’d be looking to get rid of him. There are plenty of owners who go for big name guys, and probably consider Uggla in a slump, rather than a flat out decline.