Dixon’s Picks: Waiver Wire Additions for the Week of July 1

Photo courtesy of Shawna Pairan

While we still have two more weeks until the All-Star Break, we’ve already reached the real halfway point of the season. If you’re in first place in your leagues, give yourself a pat on the back but also realize that you have a target firmly on it. If you’re hanging around, it’s probably time to make some moves to get to the top. If you’re still in the bottom half of your league and telling yourself that it’s a long season — 2014 isn’t that far away.

As far as Dixon’s Picks goes, last week was a good bounceback for me after a shaky performance the week before. Let’s see where I stand after the weeks of Eric Stults, Kyle Kendrick, and Chris Tillman.

Let’s see what these guys can do to make those numbers even better.

• Bronson Arroyo, Cincinnati Reds — Probable Starts: Monday vs. San Francisco Giants, Saturday vs. Seattle Mariners

Will Meadows recently did a really interesting feature for us on how important run support is. It’s certainly worth checking out for those who haven’t read it. 

In it, he compared Bronson Arroyo to Lance Lynn and really, it’s not that bad of a comparison. Now, Lynn is more of a strikeout guy than Arroyo and he does get great run support. But Lynn’s not available to you, and Arroyo probably is.

As for this week, there’s a lot to like about Arroyo.

One, the two teams he’s facing don’t have horribly prolific offenses. The Giants haven’t had much in the way of hitting for more than a month now. They’ve been beaten up and even when healthy, have rarely been firing on all cylinders. The Mariners have been struggling to find consistent offense for a long time. In Cincinnati, they’ll be continuing that quest, but will be lacking a designated hitter.

Also, while the Great American Ballpark is generally considered a hitter’s park, someone forgot to tell Arroyo. Take a look at his home/road splits in 2013.

At home, he’s also averaging nearly seven innings per start. The moral of this story?

Any time you have the chance to pick up Bronson Arroyo in a two-start week, at home, against two uninspiring offenses, you should take it. That’s exactly what you have this week.

Arroyo’s Projections for the Week

• Wade Miley, Arizona Diamondbacks — Probable Starts: Monday at New York Mets, Saturday vs. Colorado Rockies

You can’t say that Wade Miley hasn’t experienced something of a sophomore slump this year. The month of May was completely brutal to him, but his ERA steadily dropped throughout June, where four of his five outings were quality starts.

The attractive start this week is against the Mets, who are a bottom-tier offense in pretty much every statistic. Citi Field is still one of the better pitcher’s parks in the league. So, that’s a green light matchup.

The one against the Rockies is more of a gamble, as the Rockies certainly are a frightening offense. But remember, while the Rockies are dangerous, they’re nowhere near as scary away from Coors Field. Even though Chase Field is good for hitters, it’s nothing like Coors field — there isn’t an MLB stadium that’s close to Coors Field.

There is an advantage to the order of these starts. The Mets are clearly the better matchup so if you nab Miley, start him then. In a head-to-head league, see where you stand over the weekend. If some strikeouts and a win will help and you can risk ERA and WHIP, start Miley. If you really don’t need counted stats and a rough start will hurt your ERA and WHIP, leave Miley on the bench. In a roto league, it’s not likely that a bad start will be that detrimental in the long run.

Also, I generally like Miley for the rest of the year. He had a brutal month of May, but was solid in April and not bad in June. Throw that in with what he did as a rookie, and you could do worse than him for the rest of the year.

Miley’s Projections for the Week

• A.J. Griffin, Oakland Athletics — Probable Starts: Tuesday vs. Chicago Cubs, Sunday at Kansas City Royals

Just like Kyle Kendrick last week, A.J. Griffin has his own coffee mug in the Dixon’s Picks house. Like Arroyo, he’s been much better at home than on the road. But unlike several other Oakland pitchers, his road splits aren’t bad, which makes me feel fine about him.

The matchups are not bad this week. The Cubs are mediocre to bad, pretty much everywhere, while the Royals do a decent job getting on base, but are terrible at scoring runs.

You’re going to have hard time being too picky about those outings. That’s the sign of an absolutely hot pitcher, and while it’s only two starts, a hot pitcher against considerably more dangerous offenses than the ones he’s about to encounter. Also, he’s pitching in Oakland and Kansas City, both pitcher-friendly parks.

Griffin is another pitcher that should really be rostered full-time by more people. He’s only had a couple of rough outings this year, which is why his stats are pretty solid. If anything, a sub-1.10 WHIP should lead to an ERA better than 3.56.

Griffin’s Projections for the Week