A cellar is a great place for wine, not fantasy baseball teams.
Photo courtesy of Nattomi.
I’ve had this idea in mind for a while, I just couldn’t figure out how to do it. We’ve had a few readers ask having bad years ask us for advice about how to avoid the cellar. In a league that Nash, Clave, and I are in, our last place team has switched his team name to “Moving out of Last Place.” Unfortunately for him, he’s doing no such thing.
So, I thought about doing something with specific ideas for these players, but the leagues are all a little unique, and I’m not sure how well the advice would translate. So, I decided to take this on from a more general angle.
If you’re mired in the cellar and just want to get out of it, how should you go about handling that? Well, here are some general guidelines.
- Trim the Dead Wood
I mean this from a few different perspectives.
- The obvious: Get rid of your bad players. Beyond looking at the stats, there’s a pretty easy way to check this. Look at the ownership rates of guys. If someone is owned in like 10 percent of leagues, there’s probably a reason for it. If you’re in last place in your league, it means that not only everyone in your league is doing things better than you are, but also that most other players, whether they’re in your league or not, are doing things better than you. So, follow their leads and get rid of the lesser-owned guys. The one exception here is if you are in a league that counts unique stats, like holds. Most leagues don’t count holds, so middle relievers aren’t owned in many leagues. But with that exception, dump these guys like radioactive waste.
- Maximize your roster potential: I can’t tell you how many times I’ve seen this from last place teams. If a league has six bench spots available, a last place team will have four of those spots devoted to hitters. Why? Remember, pitchers change every day. Fantasy relevant hitters don’t. Consider TWO HITTERS a HARD MAXIMUM for your bench. I’ve won leagues and gone a long time without a single bench hitter. Remember, you don’t get to pinch-hit mid game like you can in baseball. Bench hitters are exactly that, bench hitters. Bench pitchers are only on the bench because they’re not starting that particular day.
- Acquire Depth
This is where things differ a little bit. If you’re a contender, depth isn’t nearly as important. Now, you don’t want to have one or two good guys carrying a bunch of scrubs. But remember, a star makes up for a lot. So, on a contending team, you shoot for the stars.
Here, you probably want to use your best players as bargaining chips and go for some depth, especially on the offensive end.
In economics, four quarters is the same as one dollar bill. When you’re looking for a championship, you want the dollar bill, or bills. When you’re trying to get out of last place, it means that your dollar bills have been worth about 75 cents, and the quarters have been worth about a dime.
Right now, people are looking to improve their teams and are willing to overpay for the big names. Say you have a guy like a Giancarlo Stanton, who will hit a lot of homers but is likely to struggle in most other areas. If a contending team is struggling in the power areas, you can probably shop Stanton to that team for more than he’s actually worth. (For the record, I’m not beating up on Stanton. I’m beating up on Jeffery Loria, who put so little talent around him that his numbers can’t possibly be what they should be).
Now, if you have an elite pitcher, I’d shop him before the top hitters. But really, I’d be looking to shop everyone on your roster who others want. Now, don’t make a trade for the sake of it. Sit back and find the best deal for you.
But I’m guessing that if you’re a last place team, you need to be rounded out more. So, especially when it comes to hitters, look to do that.
Lastly, if you’re an Economics professor and are puking at all of the inexact examples I just gave, I don’t blame you. If you wish to use this paragraph in your classes to show your students what people look like who don’t understand the topic, I give you my blessing.
- Gamble, probably on power
In the aforementioned league that Nash, Clave, and I are in, the last place team is in last place in six of seven offensive categories, and second-to-last in the other. Here’s the thing about that, though. As bad as it looks, it almost literally can’t get any worse. If he benches his offense for the rest of the season, he’ll lose maybe one point. I’m giving this example because while his team is unique, I frequently find that the really bad teams who are only looking to get out of last place at this time of the year are almost always dead last in several categories.
In this guy’s case, if he goes from worst to first in steals, he picks up 11 points. If that happens, he’s still in dead last, and by quite a bit.
So, if he really wants to get out of last place, he should punt steals for the rest of the year. Try to bring in long ball guys (either by trade or free agency) because they almost always drive in a fair amount of runs and score them, as well. Also, even if they don’t get many base hits, they often walk, and our league counts OBP.
So, why not go for Adam Dunn, Chris Carter, Travis Hafner, and other guys who will reliably hit the long ball? Who cares if they won’t come anywhere close to .250? They can help move you to the middle of the pack in three or four categories. That’s a pretty good boost to your team.
So, find guys who are good in some areas. You probably won’t get well-rounded players, but that’s not what you need at this point.
- Don’t Mess the Future up
If you’re in a keeper league, especially an auction league, don’t sell out just to avoid the cellar. Again, the cellar happens, and I’ve seen quick turnarounds from one year to the next. So, you should still try to get out of it, but don’t dump keepers, especially good value keepers.