Fantasy Questions Around Ryan Braun

Photo courtesy of Steve Paluch.

The news is out. Ryan Braun is suspended for the rest of the 2013 season, a suspension that works out to 65 games. If the Brewers were contenders, it would be as many as 85 games, but they’re not. So, 65 it is.

He was No. 1 in our Draft Kit at the beginning of the year. Actually, he was No. 1 for most sites. The thought was that he’d be close enough to Miguel Cabrera in runs, home runs, runs batted in, and average, and significantly better than him in steals. Conversely, Mike Trout had to be due for some kind of drop off. Even if not, his position in the order would put him well behind Braun in RBI and probably homers as well.

Well, Braun wasn’t bad, but he certainly wasn’t playing like a top guy this year. Now, he’s clearly not the top player, although there was no way of forecasting this. So, here’s the question. What should fantasy owners do with Braun now? There are a few different types of situations to go over, so let’s get to them.

1. Owners in a non-keeper league

This is pretty simple, actually. Just drop him. He’s not appealing the suspension, so you won’t see him again in 2013. There’s nothing to hang on to here. He’s probably on No-Drop Lists right now. But as soon as that changes, drop him and find someone on the waiver wire.

Now, you won’t find a contributor like Braun. So, look to ride hot streaks, find categories you can absorb a bit of a hit in, do whatever you can to fill this loss. But if you can drop him in a league like this, do it. His 2013 contributions are done with.

2. Owners in a keeper league

This is where things get a little tricky. You have a few options to take.

• Trade him: Give this some thought, but DO NOT give Braun away. His stock will likely never be lower than it is right now so while this is certainly an idea worth exploring, don’t go overboard. If you’re a contending team and need a jolt from this, then I might be a little more aggressive. But if you’re out of it this year, look for the right offer.
• Keep him: Braun is still a top of the line player. We’re going to get more into this in the next section but if you’re in a 12-team league that gets three keepers, the question on keeping him is this. Will Ryan Braun be a Top-36 player in 2014? As low as public opinion is on him, I have a really hard time saying no to that right now. He should be Top-36, with plenty of room to spare, no less. In an auction league, it really comes down to your budget and what his cost will be next year. But if you’re wondering about that and can’t get a good trade offer, I’d still keep him right now and wait until you see what kind of hit he’ll be. 

3. Owners in a fresh league in 2014

The crazy thing about this is that this suspension could have been a lot worse. Reports on this changed rapidly, but there were times when it appeared that Braun could be looking at a 100-game suspension. So, 65 games and a theoretical clean slate in 2014 is really not that bad. As a matter of fact, I think that the negative publicity that will continue to come with this will actually make Braun a nice value pick next year. It seems strange to say that, but there are some things that I can’t get beyond.

For a second, let’s say that Braun never messed with PED’s before the positive test in the postseason of 2011. I know that may be a big leap for some of us to make, but let’s go with it. This guy has been one of the best players in baseball since coming into the league in 2007. As great as his numbers in 2011 & 2012 were, they weren’t way out of whack compared to what he had done previously, which was the case for Melky Cabrera.

Look at his average seasons over his career.

I’m not going to be naive and say that the numbers weren’t better, or that they couldn’t be attributed to PED use, but the leap isn’t so great that it couldn’t otherwise be chalked up to natural progression that players tend to have in their Age 27 and 28 seasons, which 2011 and 2012 were for Braun.

Admittedly, there is a hole in that logic, and it’s not a small one.

• If he was one of the best players in the game anyway and heading into his peak years, why would he start using?

Maybe he’s just not that bright of a guy (NEVER discount this possibility when dealing with athletes), maybe it was an injury that he needed to recover from. Maybe, just maybe, he was never clean and he just got caught for the first time in 2011 but had been using for years.

Still, I’m having a hard time looking at Braun in 2014 and seeing him as anything worse than a second round pick.

He’s not Miguel Cabrera, Mike Trout, Carlos Gonzalez, or Robinson Cano. I couldn’t put him ahead of Andrew McCutchen, Joey Votto, Paul Goldschmidt, or Prince Fielder.

But after that, it’s hard to come up with many hitters that rank ahead of Braun for 2014. Chris Davis is having a great year, but how likely is he to repeat that? Adam Jones is a great all-around player, but has never come close to comparing with Braun. Matt Kemp has been hurt for most of the last two seasons. That doesn’t get better with age. Bryce Harper is great, but is still a .270 career hitter.

Any of these guys could rank over Braun, but they all have some questions when compared to him.

This is very disappointing news, for sure. Just go into next year realizing that the slate is clean now. MLB has suspended him and unless he is really stupid (again, NEVER discount that) and tests positive again, they’re no longer gunning for him. He won’t be a top pick in 2014, but his career has been too good to let him drop much below below the first round.