Dixon’s Picks: Waiver Wire Additions for the Week of July 29

Photo courtesy of Bob James.

Welcome back to Dixon’s Picks. I said this at the beginning of the season, and it’s still true. I do these every week not only because I think they’re helpful, but I enjoy them. Maybe that’s the geek in me coming out, but I’m okay with that.

Choosing guys to stream is a guessing game, for a few reasons.

1. Baseball is the least predictable one-game sport on the planet, and these predictions are short term.
2. These are waiver wire pitchers. Generally speaking, it means that they have some flaws that are maybe being hidden, but could come out at any moment. Or, maybe they’ve turned things around and are moving towards being owned in fantasy leagues everywhere. I enjoy taking those chances.

Okay, maybe that’s the gambler in me coming out. Before this turns into a personal evaluation, let’s get going with this week’s picks. But before we do that, let’s take a look at what my guys have done thus far.

This week in particular is complicated, as teams could look very different after Wednesday’s Trade Deadline. Anyway, let’s see what we can do to change those numbers this week.

• Jacob Turner, Miami Marlins — Probable Starts: Monday vs. New York Mets, Saturday vs. Cleveland Indians

There’s plenty to like about Jacob Turner this week. First, we can look at a very solid season that he’s had thus far, putting up these numbers.

I’m also a fan of his career numbers at Marlins Park.

Opponents are also slashing .185/.232/.295 in Miami against Turner. A .295 slugging percentage? Even with a relatively small sample size of innings, that’s pretty impressive. Hits against are not only few and far between, but as that percentage would indicate, they’re generally only singles. Throw that in with a strong walk rate, and it’s hard to scratch runs across.

As for the opponents, the Mets are one of the weaker offenses in the league. Outside of David Wright, there’s not an awful lot to fear. The Indians are better, but they’re going to be in a pitcher’s yard without the benefit of the DH.

When you weigh all that together, Turner is a solid guy to hedge your bets on. I know it’s hard to go with a guy who pitches for the Marlins, who aren’t likely to score many runs. But, you have to look beyond wins sometimes. Look for two quality outings from him this week.

Turner’s Predictions for the Week

• Wei-Yin Chen, Baltimore Orioles — Probable Starts: Tuesday vs. Houston Astros, Sunday vs. Seattle Mariners

If you ask me, Wei-Yin Chen is the perfect example of how we can really over-analyze the game of baseball. Baseball has always counted everything, but with new stats, everything is counted and under an even closer microscope.

Case in point: The 2012 Baltimore Orioles were complete flukes, right? They barely outscored their opponents. Not only do we ignore that their team was constructed to win close games, but we also are too willing to assume that nearly all of their players are flukes. When they continue to play well, we almost don’t believe it.

I know that some other things explain Chen’s absence from most of your rosters. He missed nearly two months of the season. That can be countered by pointing out that he was effective both before and after his missed time. Still, while he does maintain a solid ERA and WHIP, he doesn’t strike hitters out with any regularity. But we’re talking over 90 percent available. That’s just way too big a number.

I’ll close out my little rant by saying this. Sometimes you have to look a little beyond just the numbers. In the case of fantasy baseball, the numbers are the only thing that matters, so look a little beyond the advanced, predictive numbers. They don’t lie, but they also don’t always tell the full story.

Back to this week, the Astros and Mariners are about as good as it gets in the world of streaming in the American League. While any team can have a big day, neither of these teams the bring consistent punch to scare you away from a solid arm. While Camden Yards is brutal for pitchers, Chen’s figured out a way to manage it, as home and road splits are very similar.

Don’t be afraid to go outside of the over-analysis box to help your team, especially in the short term.

Predictions for the Week

• Ricky Nolasco, Los Angeles Dodgers — Probable Starts: Tuesday vs. New York Yankees, Sunday vs. Chicago Cubs

We’ll start with the opponents here. The secret is out on the 2013 Yankees. They’re not your typical Bronx Bombers. Derek Jeter is back and even hit a homer on Sunday, but who knows if he’s really back to form? Kevin Youkilis, Curtis Granderson, and Mark Teixeira are all out, and Alex Rodriguez may not ever play again. Well, not until 2015 anyway. Sure, Alfonso Soriano is there now and he can pop it out of the park with anyone, but isn’t exactly an all-around threat. Even when the boys in the pinstripes win, it’s usually on their pitching. That will be especially true against Los Angeles at Dodger Stadium, especially with no DH.

As for the Cubs, who really knows what they’re going to look like in the first week of August? They’ve already moved Soriano and with the deadline Wednesday, don’t be surprised if a few more key contributors are gone. They’re already a middle-of-the-road offense (at best) and could have some of the guys who helped make them that good traded by the weekend.

This, along with a red-hot Dodgers team, translates to a very favorable week for one Ricky Nolasco. He’s actually enjoying a nice bounceback season and while he does allow more hits than you’d probably like, his walk rates are very low. Against these two offenses, you can survive a few hits as long as men aren’t put on base for free in front of them. So, he gets two struggling offensive teams used to hitting in hitter’s parks at the pitcher’s haven in Los Angeles, and one of them without a customary DH. I’m giving this a thumbs up.

Predictions for the Week