What is a Stolen Base or Two Worth?

“Hey, Prince, what you doing down there?” “Just chillin’.”

There are superstar players who aren’t known for their speed. Miguel Cabrera, Chris Davis, Robinson Cano and Adrian Beltre come to mind. Prince Fielder is another, although he makes the most of his. These are fantasy gods and so valuable that owners will burn a roster spot on a speedy little fella like Ben Revere (pre broken foot), just to balance their lack of stolen bases.

There are also fantasy players like Mike Trout, Ryan Braun, Carlos Gonzalez, Andrew McCutchen, and lately Carlos Gomez who walk among these gods because of their balance of power and speed. A common strategy is for fantasy owners to try and roster as many of these 20/20+ threats as possible, thinking they can balance their team that way. Well, unless you are a devout polytheist, you know that there aren’t enough of these fantasy gods to go around.

So what is the measurable fantasy value of a player who brings at least a few steals to the table?

In short, a lot. I’m going to cherry pick from a small sample of evidence to illustrate my bias because this is my post and I can do what I want to (well, until my wife starts reading this site).

Paul Goldschmidt has been a beast this season: high average, knocking balls out, driving in runs…and, oh yeah, he’s sitting on 9 stolen bases. Adam Jones has been similarly fantastic and he’s also sitting on 9 stolen bases.

Evan Longoria has been brilliant as well, but he has only one stolen base. Adrian Beltre has been classic Adrian Beltre, but with his speed all gone, he’s put up a goose egg in the stolen base category.

Listen, I warned you that I was cherry-picking stats, but what if for the sake of argument your fantasy team had those extra stolen bases from the examples above, which because I cherry-picked my anecdotal evidence so perfectly, add up to 17?

Well, I’ve looked over ten of my past fantasy baseball leagues to see what type of swing 17 stolen bases could make in the roto standings. Unsurprisingly, 17 stolen bases are quite the swinger. In my current leagues, that stolen base add would give me an average of 4.3 points. Not too shabby, but when I looked at the past two years I realized that 17 stolen bases yielded a similarly impressive result, and in two cases would’ve brought another owner the championship.

Despite my rinky dink methodology, my point is that targeting players that might not be burners, but have a pretty decent chance of giving you at least several stolen bases, can actually provide you a few points in the standings. I don’t want to go all math heavy on you, but that’s more than nothing!

Stolen bases has never been a category that I’ve tried to win. I’ve played with owners who drafted a roster comprised of burners like Michael Bourne, Jose Reyes, Rajai Davis, and Jacoby Elsbury. While they would win the stolen base category by a landslide, they’d often understandably suffer in other categories like home runs and RBI. I’ll concede the stolen base category to those owners and instead I’ll draft guys who will pitch in a few steals here and there, content to still finish competitively in the stolen base category.

Stolen bases don’t have to be an either/or category where you are choosing between Everth Cabrera and Pedro Alvarez. It can be a both/and category, with a roster full of guys stealing bases in the low double digits.

Like it or not, the stolen base is a fantasy category that is here to stay. As a result, you’d be wise to consider your options in that category.