Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.
Did you know that St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Allen Craig is closing in on a historic milestone for clutch hitting? His batting average with runners in scoring position over the past two seasons currently stands at .437. This is the highest mark by any hitter in the past fifty years over a two-year period. This list includes Tony Gwynn, Hank Aaron, and Ichiro Suzuki.
The St. Louis Cardinals currently have one of the best records in the National League. They’re a bottom-five team in terms of hitting homers, but still have one of the best offenses in the league. Much of that success comes from timely hitting with runners in scoring position. St. Louis has four players ranked in the top twelve for highest average with RISP in baseball. The Cardinals lead baseball with a team high .290 average with RISP. It should be no surprise that they lead the National League in runs scored.
The Houston Astros have the worst record in baseball. The Astros lead all teams with the least amount of runners stranded per game. If you strand fewer runners than any other team that usually means your team is scoring a prolific amount of runs with timely hitting. Yet, the Astros are ranked 28th in runs scored per game. Their RISP average as a team stands at .228, which ranks near the bottom of the league.
Productivity can be seen through many different perspectives depending on who you talk to. A hitter’s batting average can be a deceiving indicator of hitting productivity. Runners in scoring position can be a much better indicator of productivity. Brandon Phillips is a great example.
Brandon Phillips has an average of .258 but with RISP he is hitting .389. This is the main reason he is second in the National League with 81 RBI’s. His OPS (on base% + slugging) is a mediocre .709 but his RISP average lets him post RBI numbers usually reserved for someone with a much higher OPS.
On the flipside of Brandon Phillips lies Joe Mauer.
Joe Mauer is 4th in the American League with a .324 average. He hits second in the Twins lineup but only has 34 RBI’s. The reason his RBI total is low is because he sports a .262 average with RISP, which is good for 174th.
On the surface his batting average would signify another successful season. When you dig deeper his lack of RBI production stems from his lackluster RISP totals.
RISP can be used on a weekly timeframe or for better predictive results it can be used on a month-by-month basis. People have a tendency to use RISP as a barometer to criticize players who fail in clutch situations. It can also be used to predict a player’s future production. For me, RISP is best used when comparing additional statistics like RBI totals and OPS.
If your fantasy team doesn’t have hitters who can produce in the clutch your team will not have much success. RISP is another quantitative tool you can add to your player valuation toolbox. Using advanced statistics will give you an advantage over competitors who use more traditional values.