Alex Rodriguez: Daring to Explore Fantasy Value of NY’s 3B

Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

We’ll get to the fantasy part of this in a bit. But before we do that, take a trip with me down memory lane. Feel free to scroll down if you just want the fantasy take.

Do you remember when Alex Rodriguez was a likable guy? I guess if you’re much younger than I am (28), you may not remember. But he, along with Derek Jeter, Nomar Garciaparra, and Miguel Tejada (a couple years later) were shortstops who were supposed to revolutionize the position.

Here’s the funny thing about it. It’s impossible to believe now, but Rodriguez was no less popular than Derek Jeter at the time. Obviously, being a Yankee, Jeter had the national spotlight, especially in October. But that’s a double-edged sword when it comes to popularity. I had no real love or hate for either but I had one simple observation. If you could start your team with one of them, you’d be an idiot to take Jeter. Jeter had the better teams and rings but there wasn’t really one area of the game where he was even equal to A-Rod. By just about any stat or metric, Rodriguez was far superior.

Then, it happened. December 12, 2000. Rodriguez signed with the Rangers: 10 years, $252 million. Big money was nothing new in sports, but no contract had ever been anywhere near that. While his skills weren’t questioned, A-Rod went from being one of the more well-liked athletes to a sellout with the snap of a finger. Now, he was THE poster child for an era of spoiled athletes that had no connection with 99.9% of the fan, taking big money to sign with a last-place team. While his performances were nothing short of spectacular, the Rangers remained in dead last through his whole tenure in Texas, only once coming even close to third place.

You probably know most or all of the story since then. The near trade to the Red Sox. The move to the Yankees, the Bush-League slap against Bronson Arroyo, The MVP seasons in 2005 and 2007, the playoff failures every year until 2009 (and since 2010), the bigger contract after the 2007 season, the move to the Yankees, the women, running across the pitcher’s mound, screaming at an infielder on a popup, etc. Some of those may be fresher in some minds than others, and I know I missed plenty. But now, it all comes back to PED’s.

It’s really amazing. Mention the name of Barry Bonds in San Francisco and you’ll still hear nothing but praise. Mark McGwire was previously the hitting coach in St. Louis, where he excelled, and is now in Los Angeles, where he never played. He seems quite popular there. David Ortiz was turned to to be one of the spokesmen (NSFW) for the city of Boston after the Marathon Bombings. Andy Pettitte hardly has his name mentioned in PED scandals. Even Roger Clemens was talking about coming back to the Astros last season…at 50, even pitching in the Minors. Not A-Rod. Rodriguez is disliked by all, even Yankees fans. Actually, especially by Yankees fans.

The shift really started in that day in December of 2000 when he signed with the Rangers, I don’t think one thought relating to Alex Rodriguez has gone unsaid since then, present company included.

Now we have this week’s news. News that A-Rod has been suspended through the 2014 season, but is also appealing the suspension. Actually, he’s already played in two games, going 2-6.

So, if no thought about A-Rod can go unsaid, why not analyze this question. Keeping true to the name and content of this site:

Does Alex Rodriguez have any fantasy value in 2013?

Let’s see.

I guess to first look at this, we have to see his most immediate history, excluding the two games in Chicago. So, even though it’s not a great sample size, let’s see what Rodriguez has done on his various rehab assignments.

That’s not much to draw from, but a few observations come to mind.

• The .214 batting average needs to improve. I know it’s only 42 at-bats, but the pitchers he’s going to see in the show are much better than what he’s been seeing. 
• While the .214 average isn’t any good, you have to be somewhat encouraged by the fact that he’s improving at every stop. His first stop was in Single-A Charleston, where he went 0-4 for a .000 batting average. Then came A+ Tampa, 3-17 with a .176 average. Then, AAA Scranton, 3-12, or .250. Lastly, AA Trenton, 3-9, .333. Again, it wouldn’t take much to make those numbers look much better or much worse, but steady improvement is never discouraging.
• A .333 OBP isn’t great, especially for a career .384 OBP guy. But, A-Rod is also a .318 career hitter, which contributes greatly to his high OBP. A guy not even hitting .220 getting on base one-third of the time is a really promising sign. It shows that he’s not pressing and waiting on his pitches. That’s also a sign that the .214 average is a timing issue, which makes sense. Eventually, that will improve.
• The home run totals are nice to see. He’s homering once every 14 at-bats. So, if he gets 140 at-bats this season (not a small if, but bare with me), you’re looking at 10 homers in less than two months time. How many 3B do you think will get that?

If I’m going to point out the positive elements of a negative stat in batting average, I have to point out the negatives of his good stats. Three home-runs in 42 at-bats is really limited. While A-Rod has been a decent power hitter over the last few years, he’s hasn’t been close to that clip for a while. Take a look at his last three seasons.

So, give him a bigger sample size against better pitchers and he’s not only not homering once every 14 at-bats, but his totals are declining. Snarky readers may point the stuff A-Rod is being suspended for may increase his power into his late 30’s (Barry Bonds), but reports also have A-Rod allegedly using it for all of pretty much the same time-frame. If it wasn’t helping him then, there’s no reason to think it’ll help him now.

So, the outcome looks bleak there.

But if you’re in need of a third baseman and aren’t totally repulsed by A-Rod, I’d like you to consider a few things.

1. A-Rod is in unfamiliar territory

I don’t want to sit here from my couch and say that A-Rod has been handed everything in his career. I know he’s a phenomenal talent and I know he’s worked hard. But here’s something to think about.

• After being the first pick of the 1993 draft, A-Rod was about one month shy of his 19th birthday when he debuted in the majors.
• He won the batting title in his Age-20 season.
• In his Age-22 season, A-Rod joined Barry Bonds and Jose Canseco as the only members of the 40-40 club (Alfonso Soriano is also now a member). Now, being mentioned in the same breath as Bonds and Canseco may not seem like a real compliment, but PED’s or not, 40-40 is phenomenal.
• Before his age 25 season, he signed the aforementioned huge deal with Texas.

There are other career highlights to mention, but the point is this. Rodriguez has never had to worry about his spot on the roster. For nearly 20 years, he was able to take it completely for granted that he’d be an Opening Day starter, probably batting third or fourth.

Now, he’s gotta be seriously wondering if these are the last games he’ll ever play. Regardless of the outcome of the appeal, if he doesn’t play well, that is a very real possibility. Wouldn’t it stand to reason that he may work much harder now to show that he still can play at a high level?

You might be thinking something. When he finally does serve this suspension, he’s going to be out of baseball for more than a year anyway. He won’t even be able to come back until he’s 39. That’s a career ending suspension, anyway.

There’s some truth to that, but I doubt A-Rod is thinking that way. No, I’m guessing that he’s thinking about showing his best game right now. When the 2015 offseason starts and he’s able to play again, he wants the last thoughts in any General Manager’s minds to be positive. Maybe there’s no chance that it will matter, but he’s gotta be in that mindset.

Oh, and here’s something else to think about.

2. Don’t automatically assume that he’ll lose this appeal

I’m not going to sit here and tell you that I know what baseball has and doesn’t have. But I know that they don’t have a positive test on him. I also believe that if it comes down to it, it may not be that hard to damage the credibility of Tony Bosch in court, or in an appeal.

I also know that baseball wanted to make a deal with him, and that their suspension doesn’t quite add up. They’re going beyond what one or two positive tests would be (50 and 100 games, respectively), but stopping short of what a third positive test would be, a lifetime ban. I’m not a lawyer, nor do I play one on TV, but my layman’s understanding tells me that they may not be that confident that the evidence they do have will hold up.

Remember, all of these other players who were suspended chose not to appeal. But they’re significantly younger than A-Rod. For them, it might have just been better to not fight this and start fresh at or near the beginning of 2014.

In A-Rod’s case, he has nothing to lose by fighting this. What’s the worst that could happen? He’s already a pariah. Based on what we’ve seen in past votes, he’s got no chance of getting into the Hall of Fame anyway. A two-year ban would end his career, officially or not. So, why not fight it?

But even if he’s fighting it only because he’s got no reason not to, that doesn’t mean that he won’t win. Those other guys had reasons not to fight it, but that doesn’t mean that they wouldn’t have won if they did. Ryan Braun won it, and they actually had a positive test on him. Is it so impossible to think that A-Rod could win this appeal and serve no games?

Not to me.

3. If he’s healthy, A-Rod will be around for the rest of 2013.

This one actually comes with a little more than just my layman’s interpretation of the evidence they have on him and actually makes the last section fairly moot. If you haven’t heard this, read what Tyler Kepner of the New York Daily News tweeted.

The Yankees play their last game on September 29. If you want to go into the playoffs, the seventh game of the World Series will be played (if necessary) on October 31. You may not like him but if you want to watch Yankees games, get used to Alex Rodriguez. You’re going to be seeing him for a few months.

4. There is a comparison to draw from

To an extent, you can say this is comparing apples to oranges, but I’d say more like tangerines to oranges. Because it’s hard to ignore some of the parallels between Rodriguez in 2013 and Bonds in 2005.

1. Like A-Rod in 2013, Bonds had numbers to rival any player in the history of the game.
2. Like A-Rod in 2013, Bonds had been injured for most of the 2005 season.
3. Like A-Rod in 2013, Bonds played on a team that had struggled, but was still clinging to playoff contention. Actually, the Yankees are far more in the race than the Giants were in 2005. If for no other reason, they have more games to play.
4. Like A-Rod in 2013, Bonds was facing some serious PED questions, although a suspension wasn’t imminent.

Now:

1. Unlike A-Rod in 2013, Bonds had a stellar season the year before, hitting roughly one homer per every 8 at-bats. 
2. Unlike A-Rod in 2013, Bonds had to play every day in the field. A-Rod can always DH.

You can choose for yourself which of those are more relevant. But, even though Bonds played only 14 games in 2005, take a look at what he did:

That’s a homer every 8.4 at-bats. Not that far off of his pace in 2004, actually. Yes, Bonds did drop off in 2006 and 2007, but don’t try to tell me that someone looking for an OF/UT wouldn’t have liked that 14-game run eight years ago.

Seeing that, I have to ask myself this question: Is it impossible that A-Rod will produce a similar run over a slightly longer period of time? Remember, it’s hard to preserve your body for a six-month season when you get older. That’s why players decline. But two months? That doesn’t seem as unlikely.

I know when it comes to A-Rod, his fantasy value is trivial. It’s why I spent a lot of time discussing him outside of fantasy, even though this is exclusively a fantasy site. The overall issue is just too big.

But because of many conversations, I know that the readers of this site are very serious about their fantasy baseball teams…so are the writers.

So, when you have a guy who plays a position that hasn’t been as deep as we thought it might be, and who happens to be one of the best statistical players in the history of baseball, it begs the question.

Can this guy help my team?

If you have Miguel Cabrera or Adrian Beltre, probably not. Similarly, if you’re nursing a good lead and don’t want to take any chances, I’d avoid him. But if you’re in a position where you need some points from third base and are trying to catch lightning in a bottle, I’d say to take the chance. Like A-Rod, you’ve got nothing to lose.

In his first game, he batted right behind Robinson Cano. In his second game, A-Rod hit right in front of Robby. That’s a good spot for RBI and quality pitches.

Just for fun, let’s say Rodriguez stays healthy.

Dixon’s A-Rod Projections for the rest of 2013

Do you think your 3B will do better than that? If so, let someone else take the chance. If not, there are players without his resume that are being gambled on. So, why not A-Rod?