Bust Pitchers Worth Gambling on

Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

When you’re this deep into the season, you know who the good sleepers have been. You also know who the flat out busts are, and the last thing anyone wants to do is go back and count on a bust for one last kick.

But, there are times when it may just be the best idea.

All of these guys have been bitter disappointments in 2013, but have some momentum and favorable situations for the rest of the year. So, if you’re looking for a boost in pitching (as I am), give these guys a look.

Dan Haren, Washington Nationals

Normally, I’d say that players on teams like the Nationals are ones to stay away from. Clearly, at the beginning of the year, the Nationals were thinking about a deep October run, and that doesn’t seem likely at this point. Guys on teams like this have a tendency to play the season out at less than a full effort.

But Dan Haren is a little different. He came to the Nationals on a one-year deal and has been pretty bad for most of the last two seasons. But the last month or so has been a little different. Take a look at his last several starts:

Now, if you’ve been following the Nationals, I can hear the comebacks right now.

“Dixon, pay attention. He’s been doing that against some of the worst teams in the league.” Or, “The only good team he took on in that run rocked him.”

True and true. That would really concern me, but I went ahead and looked at the rest of the Nationals’ schedule. Assuming Haren takes the ball every fifth game, look at the opponents.

• Aug 15: vs. San Francisco Giants
• Aug 20: @ Chicago Cubs
• Aug. 25: @ Kansas City Royals
• Aug. 31: vs. New York Mets
• Sept. 6: @ Miami Marlins
• Sept. 11: @ New York Mets
• Sept. 16: vs. Atlanta Braves
• Sept. 21: vs. Miami Marlins
• Sept. 27: @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Sure, there are a few tough matchups there, but that’s exactly a murder’s row of opponents.

If Haren can’t finish strong against those opponents, he’s looking at two down years in a row. I’m not a General Manager, but how do you think that’s going to play in free agency for a 33-year-old? Probably not that strong.

Even if Haren was expecting to pitch in more meaningful games when he signed with Washington, the focus should absolutely be there for the rest of the year. Haren is one of the hottest pitchers in baseball now and has a slate of opponents that will only help his cause.

He’s also still a waiver wire guy, but that window is rapidly closing. So, if you want him, act fast.

Ryan Vogelsong, San Francisco Giants

The Giants and their players fall into the same category as the Nationals. They were certainly expecting bigger things than a below .500 team just hoping to avoid last place. But much like Haren, Ryan Vogelsong is a free agent this year. Or, he could be. The Giants have a $6.5 million team option for 2014 and if he doesn’t finish strong, the 36-year-old Vogelsong will not only fail to have that option picked up, but he won’t get anywhere near that in free agency. Actually, a rough finish may signal the end of Vogelsong’s career, at least as a starter.

Now, Vogelsong doesn’t have quite the good fortune of opponents that Haren has. Frankly, he’s not as sure a bet as Haren, but he also has more availability.

But Vogey was sharp in four rehab starts, posting a 2-1 record with a 1.72 ERA, 1.021 WHIP, and 13 strikeouts in 15.2 innings. Not a great sample size, especially against Minor Leaguer, but he also had a solid first inning back from injury against a potent Orioles lineup. Lastly, while it was a while ago, Vogelsong was stellar in his last outing before getting hurt. Yes, that was back in May, but it’s nice to have a good memory in the bank to put next to a decent outing this time.

Vogelsong was one of the more stingy pitchers in the league over the 2011 and 2012 seasons, posting a combined 3.05 ERA. Right now, he’s got some momentum going. Whether he keeps that going or not remains to be seen, but he’s not a bad guy to gamble on and stick with, at least until he starts struggling.

Ian Kennedy, San Diego Padres

No way around it, Ian Kennedy has not had a good year in 2013. Throw that in with a disappointing 2012 and you’re looking at a guy who could be on his way to being a one-year wonder. But even though he went to the lowly Padres, I’d actually say that Kennedy benefited from an under-the-radar move to the Padres.

A nice way to prove that would be to look at his career numbers at his new home stadium, Petco Park.

Now, a case could be made that playing the Padres will help that average, but he’s always been a flyball pitcher and regardless of who you’re facing, that works a lot better in San Diego than Arizona.

That does beg one more question, though. There aren’t many games left, so just how many of these starts will be in San Diego? Assuming he takes the ball every fifth game, these are his remaining starts:

• Aug. 16: vs. New York Mets
• Aug. 21: vs. Pittsburgh Pirates 
• Aug. 27: @ Arizona Diamondbacks
• Sept. 2: vs. San Francisco Giants
• Sept. 8: vs. Colorado Rockies
• Sept. 14: @ Atlanta Braves
• Sept. 19: @ Pittsburgh Pirates
• Sept. 24: vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
• Sept. 29: @ San Francisco Giants

That’s just over half of his starts, and of the road starts, only his old home of Arizona fits the description of a classic hitter’s park.

I’m looking for a very nice finish from Kennedy.