Photo courtesy of slgckgc.
Welcome back to Dixon’s Picks. At this point next week, we’ll be in September.
I won’t waste too much time here, so let’s see what my numbers look like after the weeks of Andrew Cashner, Chris Rusin, and Rick Porcello.
| Total Starts | IP | ER | H | BB | K | ERA | WHIP | QS | W-L |
| 91 | 563.1 | 226 | 540 | 158 | 416 | 3.61 | 1.24 | 57 | 33-24 |
All but Cashner started the week a little rough, and all three lost their first starts. But the Sunday starts were solid for all three guys, headlined by Rusin and Cashner having a good game against each other on Sunday, though neither factored into the decision.
Lastly, I have a full piece on this coming out this week, but this is the last Dixon’s Picks before the beginning of September. Many things in baseball change with the expanded rosters on September 1, possibly none more than how pitchers are used, especially waiver wire guys. Just something to keep in mind in the season’s final month.
Now, let’s see some good two-start guys this week.
- Tyson Ross, San Diego Padres — Probable Starts: Monday at Arizona Diamondbacks, Sunday at Los Angeles Dodgers
Most guys who make this list are here because they’re pitching pretty well and have at least one favorable matchups. Tyson Ross is here not because of the matchups, as Arizona and Los Angeles are both quite dangerous. But he hasn’t been pitching pretty well recently, he’s been on an absolute tear. Take a look at what he’s done since coming back to the starting rotation.
| IP | ER | H | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 40.1 | 9 | 23 | 11 | 42 | 2.01 | 0.84 |
That run includes a start against the Diamondbacks (also in Arizona), another in Cincinnati, and a decent outing against Pittsburgh. So, he’s not beating up on a bunch of cream-puff lineups.
I don’t know if this is the sign of a big future or not with Ross. He’s certainly struggled in the majors, with a career 4.42 ERA/1.44 WHIP. But at this time of the year, you have to strike while the iron is hot. Right now, the iron is very hot with Ross. So, while the Diamondbacks and Dodgers are potent offenses and should be respected, I like Ross’ chance to keep things going this week.
Ross’ Projections for the Week
| IP | ER | H | BB | K | W-L | ERA | WHIP |
| 14 | 2.57 | 11 | 4 | 13 | 1-1 | 2.57 | 1.07 |
- Jarred Cosart, Houston Astros — Probable Starts: Monday at Chicago White Sox, Sunday vs. Seattle Mariners
For a more in-depth look at Jarred Cosart, I’ll direct you to what Will Meadows said about him. I actually have to give Will a nod here, as he directed my attention to Cosart when he was first called up. He hasn’t been able to make a Dixon’s Pick yet, mostly because of iffy matchups and lacking two-start weeks. But Will’s assessment has been dead on so far, Cosart is a fine pitcher, providing a bright spot for a pretty rough Houston Astros’ season.
For now, what I’ll say is that he’s still making hitters miss and even though he’s walking too many guys, his WHIP is still rock solid, under 1.20. You really can’t ask for much more from a waiver wire guy.
I’d also point out that while the Mariners are pretty middle-of-the-road in terms of drawing walks, the White Sox are one of the worst teams in baseball in terms of taking the free passes, which will only help his chances in terms of keeping those down this week.
When it comes to streaming guys, you’re probably looking for wins, which is not a great bet when you’re talking about someone on the worst team in baseball. But neither the White Sox or Mariners are top of the line, either, so it wouldn’t be a total shocker to see Cosart pick up at least one win. But even without that, these are pretty mediocre offenses, and Cosart has pitched at a high level since getting the call.
Cosart’s Projections for the Week
| IP | ER | H | BB | K | W-L | ERA | WHIP |
| 13 | 3 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 1-0 | 2.08 | 1.15 |
- Jon Niese, New York Mets — Probable Starts: Tuesday vs. Philadelphia Phillies, Sunday at Washington Nationals
This was one of my personal sleeper pitchers at the beginning of the year. While Jon Niese has had a rough year, punctuated by injuries, he’s finally showing some of the stuff that I thought he’d have in April. Take a look at what he’s done since coming back to the rotation
| IP | ER | H | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 19 | 6 | 18 | 5 | 23 | 2.84 | 1.21 |
The WHIP could be a little better, but in two of those starts, he’s faced good offenses in Arizona and Atlanta. I’d have no problem ranking both teams ahead of Philadelphia or Washington, at least this year.
Niese was actually a solid pitcher last year with a 3.40 ERA/1.18 WHIP. So if nothing else, he’s showing that kind of form, and I expect that to go for the rest of the year. The Phillies are a poor offense and while the Nationals have plenty of good hitters, their offense has been mediocre (at best) all year. They’re also one of baseball’s most disappointing teams this year, so it wouldn’t completely surprise me if they’ve checked out a bit at this point of the year. Either way, I like this week for Niese.
Niese’s Projections for the Week
| IP | ER | H | BB | K | W-L | ERA | WHIP |
| 14 | 5 | 12 | 4 | 12 | 1-0 | 3.21 | 1.14 |
As a bonus, I’d also point out Niese’s teammate, Zack Wheeler. He is going a day before Niese against the same two teams, but doesn’t quite have the availability to make this list but he’s also a two-start guy. Gerrit Cole has similar availability to Wheeler. He is also a two-start guy, with his first start a plus matchup in Milwaukee on Tuesday. The second start is against the Cardinals on Sunday, so probably best to avoid that. Neither have enough availability, but both are close and worth looking at.