Billy Hamilton, Vince Coleman, and Why We Should All Be Geeking Out

Mandatory Credit: Frank Victores-USA TODAY Sports

I want to share a scouting report for a well known speedster.

"Six foot, 160 pounds, soaking wet. Legitimate 80 speed. Automatic green light. Takes bases at will. Completely disruptive on the base paths. Switch hitter, but gets weak contact from both sides of the plate. Hit tool will struggle at the highest levels which will limit the opportunities for his sped to play up in games."

That’s a scouting report for Billy Ham….oh, that was actually a 1984 scouting report for Vince Coleman? You don’t say.

Really?

Huh.

But wasn’t Vince Coleman the guy with 752 career stolen bases and the last player to steal 100 in a season (1987)? Interesting that scouts thought he’d never hit enough to have his speed play on the Major League level.

Many of Billy Hamilton‘s scouting reports are exact replicas of the above scouting report that was written for Vince Coleman in 1984. According to many, Billy Hamilton is not even done developing, and he’s already broken!

But though the scouting tales of today might seem even more plentiful than the meager crumbs of yore, let’s not forget that unrealistic expectations weren’t built in a day. What can we realistically expect out of Billy Hamilton in 2014?

Billy Hamilton in 2014

I’ve written before about what Billy Hamilton’s fantasy value could be if he is only used as a pinch runner and never even lifts a bat off his narrow shoulder. Since then I’ve done hours more research, to the point that my file on Billy Hamilton needs to be moved from a manila folder into an accordion file.

Make no mistake, good pitchers will make him their… Well, let’s just say that Hamilton will be overpowered by quality pitching. But then again, so was Vince Coleman. Coleman had a .301 OBP his second year in the Majors. That same year he slugged a feather-weight .280, which gave him an OPS of .581, an embarrassing number. Oh yeah, Vince Coleman also stole 107 bases that season (1986).

It will be harder for Hamilton than it was for Vince. It’s no longer 1986 and the modern day bullpen is filthy. Pitchers will bust him with inside heat and try to knock the bat out of his hands. I don’t know how anyone hits Aroldis Chapman. Luckily, they’ll play for the same team so he won’t have to.

"[Side Note: How fun would it be if Hamilton would drop hitting from  the right side and add a drag bunt to the left side? Is it not time for women’s softball to have a little influence on Major League baseball?!?! Anyone? OK then.]"

But warts and all, Billy Hamilton can get on base at a rate well below league average and still steal 100 bases. Whereas Vince was graded by scouts as having the highest possible 80 speed on the 20 to 80 scale, Hamilton destroys the chart. Scouts routinely refer to it as 90 speed, while others say 100. What that boils do to is that Billy Hamilton is likely the fastest player ever to play Major League Baseball.

The fastest ever.

Of all time.

He’s faster than Vince Coleman. He’s faster than Rickey Henderson, Jackie Robinson, Willie Mays, Tim Raines, Lou Brock, Delino DeShields, Rod Carew, Eric Davis, Marquis Grissom, Kenny Lofton, Otis Nixon, Jose Reyes, Jacoby Ellsbury, Juan Pierre, Joe Morgan, Michael Bourn, Ozzie Smith, or Harold Reynolds. But while Hamilton can run circles around them all, unlike most of those others, there won’t be much else to Hamilton’s game. But to be wildly regarded as the fastest player to ever play the game is an accomplishment in and of itself.

Why We Should Geek Out

1. Even meager pinch running opportunities gives him 100+ opportunities to steal as base. This is the absolute worst-case scenario, assuming he does nothing but come into games as a pinch runner and never lifts a bat.
2. But let’s also add in some opportunities to start in CF and get some plate appearances. In 2013 the worst OBP in the league was .259, so let’s assume that Hamilton matches the absolute worst. To be clear, we are anticipating that Billy Hamilton will suck at the plate. Suck as he probably will, based upon even a meager 400 plate appearances, he’ll still get an additional 100(ish) opportunities to steal a base.
3. Hamilton is an automatic go. Statistically, if he’s standing on first he’s tried to steal second over 92% of the time. He’s running.
4. Hamilton has been better than Vince Coleman or even Rickey Henderson when it came to Minor League success rate. He’s safe at least 4 out of 5 times. He’s so fast that a great throw won’t nail him. Even on a pitch out without the catcher with a quick pop can’t get him with a good throw. It has to be a perfect throw.

Billy Hamilton doesn’t have to be a good hitter to disrupt the game. He simply has to be serviceable. Consider the above: a worst-case 200 opportunities, running 90% of the time, with a 80% success rate. That’s gives a potential 100+ stolen bases.

I’m not saying that Billy Hamilton will steal 100 bases, but I am typing it. And it’s not that the math is implausible for triple digit stolen bases, it’s just that the idea of it is so far outside of what we are accustomed to, we can’t accept it as plausible.

Triple digits steals will destroy fantasy baseball rankings if it comes to pass. One player could singlehandedly win you a roto category. And that’s a steal.