Fantasy Baseball Second Base Player Profiles: Jason Kipnis

Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

Jason Kipnis should be one of the most sought after players in all of fantasy baseball. He plays second base, where hitters who contribute in five categories are an extreme rarity. He hits for power has excellent speed for his position and has players hitting in front of him who get on base, producing.

So why would a lot of experienced fantasy owners be wary of him going into next years draft?

Inconsistency

Owners are wary of him because he is one of the most inconsistent players in all of baseball. Jason Kipnis goes through prolonged bouts of trying to find a hitting zone let alone make contact with the ball. When he is going through one of his slumps he looks like a player who doesn’t know who he is as a hitter.

In an interview with MLB.com he had this to say about his consistency:

"You’ll see me take fastballs right down the middle and not even swing at them. And I’m like, ‘Why can’t I even pull the trigger?’ A lot of it’s mental. It’s kind of clearing your head. You try not to think about it too much. You just want to get back to basics and try to simplify things as much as you can."

He is one of those players that over thinks what he is doing at the plate instead of letting the game come to him. This type of hitter always struggles more than the average player because they are trying to out think their natural instincts.

Kipnis doesn’t have a consistent plan when he goes into a slump. He makes a different adjustment day by day, and that doesn’t allow him to get comfortable at the plate. When you make one adjustment and try it out for a week, eventually you will find something that works for you. Jason Kipnis likes to make a different adjustment on a daily basis. This type of approach does more harm than good.

The adjustments he tries to make in the second half of the season haven’t been very effective. Through the second half of last season his numbers dropped off significantly from his first half 2013 All-Star selection statistics.

This isn’t the first time his consistency has waned in the second half. His numbers slipped drastically in the second half of 2012 also. Notice the similarities with his run and RBI production for both seasons.

When he allows his natural ability and instincts take over he is one of the very best hitters at an infield position in all of baseball. His numbers in the first half of 2013 garnered him a spot in this year’s All-Star game. His outstanding 2013 first half numbers came after a slow start in April where he hit .200.

Moving Forward

The 2014 should be the beginning of Kipnis’ prime, as he will turn 27 years old on during the first week of the season. I don’t see a big jump in power because of his increase in his strikeout percentage last season. His strikeout percentage reached a full season career high of 21.7%. His ISO was .168, which is consistent for a hitter who will maintain a 14-18 homerun season.

You have to account for the fact that he hit 13 homeruns in the first half of last season. If he could maintain that pace for an entire season he can easily put up 20+ home run next year.

He hits near the top of the Indians order which will ensure him 600+ at bats for the third consecutive season. He will score 80 to 90 runs which is what he has shown over the past two seasons, and should drive in around 85 RBI’s as well.

The past two seasons he has averaged 30 stolen bases a season. I don’t see him slowing down next season and 25 to 30 stolen bases are well within his reach for 2014.

His batting average should be a concern for next season. He hit a robust .284 last season that is mainly due to a .301 average in the first half of the season. His .261 average in the second half of the season is a much better indicator of what type of average you could see in 2014. Kipnis is a lifetime .270 hitter and I expect an average closer to .275 for next season. It remains to be seen if he can post another .345 BABIP like he did this season. This will limit upside in his overall batting average for next season but this should not make you shy away from drafting him.

Upside

Consistency is the name of the game with Jason Kipnis. If he could only be as consistent in the second half of the season you would have a player that resembles Ian Kinsler in his best years.

It remains to be seen what kind of monster season his talent can allow him to have if he can put two great halves together. He will be in his magical 27 year-old season at the beginning of next year. A lot of players realize their full potential around this age.

Based on talent alone he has tremendous upside. It will be up to him to see if he can conquer the mental side of the game as well as his performance on the field. I would draft him over Dustin Pedroia and Ian Kinsler at this point in their careers. You may be disappointed in choosing Kipnis over Kinsler and Pedroia but you just might have a huge sleeper on your hands if he reaches his full potential.