Who’d You Rather: Howie Kendrick vs. Omar Infante?

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If you’re new to fantasy baseball, this doesn’t seem like it would be a terribly relevant fantasy question. After all, according to ESPN’s Player Rater, Omar Infante was the 13th ranked second baseman in 2013, while Howie Kendrick came in at 15. Sure, some of you may play in league’s that deep, but most are probably in 10-12 team leagues. How could this matter? Well, easy.

1. Maybe your league has a middle infield slot in addition to the normal second base and shortstop spots.
2. Maybe you’ll overbid on someone at another position and just can’t afford the likes of Chase Utley or Brandon Phillips.
3. Maybe you’ll find yourself in a snake draft and the guy who has Robinson Cano and you just don’t get along that well and he grabbed a slightly better second baseman, just to spite you.

Throw in the possibility of an injury early in the year and it’s at least worth exploring. Who’d you rather? Howie Kendrick or Omar Infante?

Relevant Numbers

• 2013 Stats

Advantage: Just as the player rater indicated, Infante gets the slight edge here.

• 2011-2013 Averages 

Advantage: Again, the edge is slight. But this time, Kendrick gets the nod. Other than an average of two more games played, he leads in all categories. Again, slight, but it’s there.

Beyond the numbers

Where Infante’s edge lies

When you get two players so comparable, it’s hard to find a big advantage for one or the other. That’s true here, and it will be true a little later when we’re going over Kendrick’s advantages. Still, there seems to be one edge that Infante has that I can’t ignore. The Tigers are a lot more stable than the Angels. That’s true for the whole team, but the offense gets our focus here.

It’s a nice luxury to bat eighth but still know that if you get on base, you have a flurry of dangerous hitters coming up to drive you in. If you bat eighth, get on base and stare into your on-deck circle, who will you see? Austin Jackson, who can be pitched to, but is a dangerous all-around weapon when hot. After that? Torii Hunter? Who protects Torii? Well, Miguel Cabrera, and then Prince Fielder.

For the sake of argument, let’s say Prince makes the final out of an inning. Now you’re looking at Victor Martinez and Jhonny Peralta hitting in front of you. So, you have seasons like Infante had in 2013. Despite batting in the bottom-third of the Detroit lineup and having limited power, he both scored and drove in 50 runs.

That’s a pretty productive season, if you ask me. It’s also eerily similar to what he’s done over the last three years and remember, 2011 and part of 2012 were spent in Miami.

In golf parlance, Infante is the equivalent of laying up on a par-five instead of trying to knock it over the water and putt for eagle. But here’s the twist. Kendrick isn’t exactly like trying a crazy, 1-in-100 shot over the water. It’s more like trying a long shot over the water after you hit a big drive. Yes, you still have to go over the water, but you easily have the distance to get it over the water, as long as you don’t hit it fat.

Where Kendrick’s edge lies

This is where it gets interesting. Because what works for Infante is the stability of his lineup. What works for Kendrick? Well, the instability of his lineup.

Look at the names that occupy the Detroit lineup with Infante. Barring an injury, actually, injuries, he’s got basically no chance of getting out of the 7-9 range in that order. With that, you lose at-bats and remember, Infante did very well to get 50 runs and RBI this year. Batting in that part of the order, you’re not doing to do any better than that and a real regression is possible.

Look at the lineup in Anaheim. Who’s the real stable force in that order? Mike Trout and well, Mike Trout. Even big names like Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton have some gigantic question marks surrounding them heading into 2014. Given all of the instability and Kendrick’s reliability, ask yourself this. Would you be really surprised if he saw a lot of time batting second and permanently moved Mike Trout to the three-hole in 2014?

It’s not impossible that Kendrick will be moved in the offseason and if that happens, obviously he’s not batting in front of Trout. If he is traded, we’ll revisit this. But if he’s an Angel, that wouldn’t surprise me at all. In that case, he’ll be getting a lot of pitches to hit and will have the likes of Trout, Pujols, Hamilton, and Mark Trumbo to drive him in.

I want to clarify that I’m not predicting that will happen, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all.

 Who’d I rather?

I promise not to cop out. I’ll answer the question. But I will say again that Infante is the safer of the two picks, because of the Detroit lineup. Kendrick’s not exactly a risky move, but he isn’t as reliable, and while he’s more likely to bat in front of his team’s best hitter (Trout) than Infante is his (Cabrera), I wouldn’t it likely. Just fewer things need to happen.

Having said that, Kendrick is my man here. My general philosophy around building a roster is to go with the safer picks with the better players and to gamble a little more later. Kendrick’s ceiling comes in higher than Infante, by what I would say is a significant margin. His basement is lower, but not by anywhere near as much.