The Armchair Quarterback’s Guide To The NFL: Week 17

The Armchair Quarterback’s Week 17 Predictions

It was another solid weekend for predictions last week, going 10-6. That brings the overall season record going into the final week of the regular season to 158-82. Next week I’ll do an overall prediction record “leader board” between myself and the experts at ESPN, CBS, and ProFootballTalk so you can see just where this Armchair Quarterback ranks with the “big boys” (hint: I’m doing alright for myself). Before that happens, I need one more good week so let’s get to it.

Browns at Steelers

Despite the fact that the Lions and Dolphins debunked this theory, I’m a believer in taking the teams that have more to play for. This game is in Pittsburgh, and although it’s a long shot, the Steelers still have an outside shot at the playoffs. This time of year, being close to home and having a little extra motivation can go a long way.

Browns 20
Steelers 27

Redskins at Giants

This is one of the three games this weekend that has absolutely no playoff implications. This is one of those games where both teams are just playing for pride. I don’t have a lot of faith in either team, but given the choice I’ll take Eli Manning at home over Kirk Cousins on the road, but who really knows if these teams will mentally show up.

Redskins 24
Giants 27

Ravens at Bengals

This is a top five game for this week. The Ravens are playing for their playoff lives and the Bengals still have a shot at a first round bye. Last month, the Ravens pulled out a three point win over the Bengals in Baltimore. On paper, Cincinnati is the better team, but Baltimore is going to be more desperate since it’s win or go home for them. Part of me wants to take Joe Flacco over Andy Dalton in this game, but I can’t shake these teams’ performances from last week. The Bengals could have had a let down against the Vikings, but came out swinging and the Ravens laid an egg with the playoffs still on the line. You combine that with Cincinnati being at home and I have to take the Bengals here.

Ravens 17
Bengals 20

Texans at Titans

This is the second of three games that have no playoff implications. The Texans had one last chance to redeem themselves to me by beating the Broncos and helping my Chiefs out (not that it matters since KC got stomped out by the Colts), but they couldn’t do it. The Texans have been a huge disappointment and the Titans have just been a better team this season. Plus, it’s in Tennessee.

Texans 23
Titans 27

Jaguars at Colts

I have to give the Colts credit, I thought they were a non factor without Reggie Wayne and they walked into Arrowhead in horrible weather and smacked the Chiefs around last Sunday. I’m still not sure I think Indy is a Super Bowl contender, but they are without question a very good team. They still have an outside shot at a first round bye and that combined with being at home should be enough to beat the Jaguars. That having been said, I think Jags fans should feel good about the coaching staff they have in place. With some more talent on that roster, they could be a force down the road.

Jaguars 17
Colts 27

Jets at Dolphins

The Dolphins just flat out laid an egg last week, and not against a power house team. I did this whole piece on Ryan Tannehill last week and wrote about how I had finally come around on the Dolphins and then they do that? The Dolphins beat the Jets soundly in New York earlier this season and you’d think that with the playoffs on the line they’d come to play at home. I’m rolling with the Dolphins again this week, but Miami fans may not be happy. The Dolphins seem to play their best football when I pick against them.

Jets 19
Dolphins 23

Lions at Vikings

This is the last of the three games with no playoff implications. The fact that the Lions were in the drivers seat for the NFC North with both Jay Cutler and Aaron Rodgers out with prolonged injuries a few months ago and now they are completely out of the running in the last week of the season is inexcusable. I think the Lions are definitely the more talented team, but how can you have any faith in that at this point? Both of these teams had bad weeks last week, but at least Detroit was in their game. I’ll take Detroit, but like the NYG/Wash game I have no faith in knowing which team will actually show up to play.

Lions 31
Vikings 27

Panthers at Falcons

I was impressed by Cam Newton pulling out that win last week against the Saints. That was a huge win for them. I was also impressed that the Falcons put up a good fight in San Francisco last week when they had nothing to play for. I think Atlanta will put up a fight in Tony Gonzalez’s final NFL game, but I don’t see how you can pick against the Panthers at this point, especially with a first round bye on the line.

Panthers 24
Falcons 20

Buccaneers at Saints

For a few brief minutes it looked like my prediction of Drew Brees pulling out the big game would come true last week. That was a HUGE loss for New Orleans. The difference between a first round bye and then a home game versus going on the road on wild card weekend is massive for this Saints team. With a shot at a first round bye and a home game still on the table it’s hard to imagine the Saints not winning this game, especially at home where they are so hard to beat. The Bucs have showed some fight in the second half of the season, but the Saints are the better team.

Buccaneers 20
Saints 31

Bills at Patriots

Both of these teams surprised me last week. The Bills shut out a team fighting for the playoffs and the injury crippled Pats demolished a Ravens team that was also fighting for a playoff birth. While I respect the Bills and think there is a lot of talent for them to build around going forward, I don’t think I can pick against the Patriots with a first round bye and possibly home field advantage still on the table.

Bills 20
Patriots 27

Rams at Seahawks

Rams fans, I respect the effort your team has given since Sam Bradford went down. Jeff Fisher should be commended for keeping that team hungry and fighting. That having been said, the Seahawks aren’t losing two straight home games to end the season, especially with home field advantage on the line.

Rams 13
Seahawks 23

Packers at Bears

This game should be the game of the week this week. Two all time classic NFL franchises battling it out for the division and the playoff spot that comes with it. While most of the media universe will focus on if Aaron Rodgers will play this week, it may actually be Eddie Lacy’s ankle injury that is more important. The Bears are the worst team in the NFL at stopping the run and a healthy Eddie Lacy would likely dismantle the Bears defense. Both teams will be able to throw the ball, but if Green Bay can’t counter Matt Forte with a run game of their own the Bears will likely win this one (regardless of if Rodgers does/doesn’t play). This game is really hard to call at this point. I like the Bears if Rodgers doesn’t play and Lacy is less than 100%, I think it’s a coin flip if either Rodgers or Lacy is good to go, and I like the Packers if both Rodgers and Lacy are good to go. Since Rodgers and Lacy are both still in question as of me typing this, I’ll officially take the Bears, but this should be a fun one to watch and see how things play out.

Packers 30
Bears 31

49ers at Cardinals

This is another great game this week. The Cardinals are the team that no one (myself included) have given enough credit this season. They turned a LOT of heads with that win in Seattle last week. Now the 49ers come to town with the Cardinals clinging to a very small playoff hope. To complicate things more, the 49ers and Seahawks are both playing during the late afternoon time slot with first place in the division and a first round bye still on the table. The 49ers won 32-20 in San Francisco back in October, but Arizona’s win in Seattle has to have gotten the 49ers attention. I really want to pick the Cardinals here and think that their defense will do more than enough to win this game. However, in the end I think Carson Palmer and his 21 INTs this season will turn the ball over to the 49ers defense when the game is on the line.

49ers 23
Cardinals 20

Broncos at Raiders

The Oakland defense is giving up almost 28 points/game and allowing opposing QBs to complete almost 67% of their passes with 29 TDs and only 9 INTs. Peyton Manning and his record setting 51 TD passes will probably only need to play one half to lock up their home field advantage.

Broncos 37
Oakland 23

Chiefs at Chargers

(Homer Alert) I haven’t picked against my beloved Chiefs much at all this season, but I’m going to have to do it here. The Chargers tore up the KC defense in Kansas City earlier this season after both Tamba Hali and Justin Houston went down with injuries. With San Diego fighting for a playoff spot and KC already locked in this just feels like a blow out to me. You add to it the fact that KC looked terrible last week, the Chiefs may rest some of their key players, and it’s in San Diego and I think Phillip Rivers has himself a big day.

Chiefs 17
Chargers 34

Eagles at Cowboys

Poor Tony Romo just can’t catch a break. He leads his team to a late win that keeps their playoff hopes alive, but injures himself in the process. Now they have the Eagles coming to town and it’s winner goes to the playoffs and the loser goes home. The Eagles offense has been on fire during the second half of the season. They have averaged 34.6 points per game in November/December and are now facing a Dallas defense that is giving up the most yards in the NFL. I just don’t trust Kyle Orton to be able to keep up with the numbers I expect Philly to put on the board.

Eagles 41
Cowboys 27

Now on to the Armchair Quarterback odds and ends of the week………