2014 Golden Globes predictions

Photo Credit: HFPA

The 2014 Golden Globes are tonight, which means it’s the perfect time to do a little prognosticating. Here are my predictions for who will win the major film awards this evening: 

Best Actor, Drama

My prediction: Chiwetel Ejiofor

There’s some pretty solid competition in the Best Actor in a Drama category this year. Idris Elba, Tom Hanks, Robert Redford, and Matthew McConaughey all delivered wonderful performances in 2013, but there’s really only one choice here. Chiwetel Ejiofor is simply outstanding in 12 Years a Slave as Solomon Northup, a free man living in New York who is abducted and sold into slavery in the 1840s. There are moments in the film that require Ejiofor to project multiple layers of emotion with just an expression and he succeeds every time. Northup endures horrendous things in the two-hour film, and to watch Ejiofor’s portrayal of a man trying so hard to hold onto hope – even as he realizes how dangerous hope is – is an incredible experience.

Best Actress, Drama

My prediction: Cate Blanchett

As much as I loved what Sandra Bullock did in Gravity, I’d be very surprised if this award went to anyone other than Cate Blanchett for her performance in Blue Jasmine. Everything points to her bringing home the trophy for her portrayal of a woman slowly losing her grip on reality after losing her grip on her finances. Woody Allen presents one of his most interesting women since Annie Hall, and Blanchett fully envelops herself in the role.

Best Actor, Musical or Comedy

My prediction: Leonardo DiCaprio

This is Leo’s ninth Golden Globe nomination, and I think his portrayal of Jordan Belfort in The Wolf of Wall Street is probably his best performance out of all of those. His Belfort is the perfect embodiment of American greed and excess, reveling in the spoils of his fraudulent stock selling. DiCaprio’s performance is full of frenetic energy that matches and enhances the tone of the film to a tee, and it’s one that should win him the statue tonight.

Best Actress, Musical or Comedy

My prediction:  Amy Adams

Meryl Streep seems like the obvious choice in any category she’s nominated in, but I have a good feeling about Amy Adams’ chances this year. She’s a standout in David O. Russell’s American Hustle, delivering a powerhouse performance as smart and undeniably sexy con-woman Sydney Prosser. Adams has garnered now five Golden Globe nominations in the last seven awards seasons, and I believe this is the role that will finally put her into the win column.

Best Supporting Actor

My prediction: Jared Leto

There is a hell of a lot of competition in the Supporting Actor category this year, meaning that this category could be anyone’s game. Lots of attention has gone to first-time Somali actor Barkhad Abdi for his incredibly intense performance as the lead hijacker alongside Tom Hanks in Captain Phillips, and a win for him would be a great story. And Michael Fassbender gave one of the most disturbing performances you’ll ever see as cruel plantation master Edwin Epps in 12 Years a Slave, showcasing the worst that humanity is capable of while still hinting at some deep internal conflict way beneath the surface. But my money is on Jared Leto taking home the award for completely transforming himself to play a transgender woman in Dallas Buyer’s Club. That kind of physical commitment to a role wins voters over during awards season, and while there’s no wrong choice in this category, I think they’ll go in Leto’s direction.

Best Supporting Actress

My prediction: Jennifer Lawrence

Putting aside the strength of her performance in American Hustle (and it is a very good one), J-Law is the “it” girl right now, plain and simple. As much as I’d like to see newcomer Lupita Nyong’o come away with a win for her devastating turn in 12 Years a Slave, I can’t see the voters going against the huge young star. Lawrence is on a roll like no other in recent years, and the amount of praise she’s received from critics for this film is insane. I’d be very shocked if anyone but her walked away with the award tonight.

Best Director

My prediction: Steve McQueen

I really hope McQueen gets recognized tonight for the incredible work he did on 12 Years a Slave, a movie that is so difficult to watch due to its harrowing subject matter, but at the same time is beautifully rendered, with every directorial choice an impactful one. His decision to present the truly awful nature of what happens to Solomon Northup without pulling any punches is one that may turn some audience members off, but it is in my opinion the most authentic look we’ve ever had at a terrible yet incredibly important time in this country’s history. He created a film that everyone needs to see to remind themselves of where society has come from and how much further we still have yet to go.

Best Picture, Comedy or Musical

My prediction: The Wolf of Wall Street

There might not be a more relevant film on this year’s slate than Martin Scorsese’s examination of excess and greed. And not only does it speak to the shady (to say the least) practices of the people in charge of our money and the ways in which they can benefit from being less than honest about those practices, but The Wolf of Wall Street is also Scorsese’s funniest movie to date. It’s the definition of a black comedy, showcasing a lot of immoral people doing immoral things, but it’s presented in such a frantic and highly entertaining fashion that you can’t help but get swept up in the insanity. At the center is one of the best performances in Leonardo DiCaprio’s career, and that couple with a lightning-fast pace makes for a wild ride.

Best Picture, Drama

My prediction: 12 Years a Slave

In my opinion it will be a serious injustice if another film wins this category. That is not meant to disparage any of the other films, which are all quite good (though the nomination of Rush surprised me). 12 Years a Slave is just that amazing. As I’ve said, it is a brutal movie-going experience, but it’s a hugely important one. The film is impeccably shot and the performances are stellar across the board. The script is poignant and moving, and director McQueen lets the material speak for itself, authentically representing (from everything I’ve heard and read) Solomon Northup’s experiences as he wrote them. This is a film that deserves every accolade it can get, and while it’s likely too harrowing to ever watch again, it needs to be seen by everyone.