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The Grizzlies’ Marc Gasol was picked in the top 10 of many fantasy basketball drafts this season, but he hasn’t been playing at that level so far this season. That makes him a prime buy low candidate. Conversely, the Wizards’ Trevor Ariza has played out of his mind so far this season, but I for one, don’t see him maintaining that pace. Now is the time to strike.
One of the Ten Commandments of fantasy basketball, (well fantasy sports in general really), is getting value. We do it in our drafts, looking for guys who will exceed their draft slot in terms of what they give to us. We do it when we scour the waiver wire, looking for a player who will contribute to our team over the course of the season. And we also need to do it in the trade market.
The fantasy basketball trade market is a lot like the stock exchange. Buying stocks at their lowest price and then selling them when they get as high as you think they will go is the way you make money dabbling in stocks and shares. The same goes for fantasy basketball. You try to trade away a player on your team who you don’t think can sustain his current level of production and you trade for players who are currently underperforming, hoping they regain their mojo once they are on your team.
Over the next few days, I’ll present to you a few guys you should be looking to trade for in order to bolster your squad as we inch towards the fantasy playoffs, as well as some players you should be looking to cash in your chips on.
Buy Low: Marc Gasol, C, Memphis Grizzlies
A large part of Marc Gasol’s poor performance this season was the MCL sprain he suffered on November 22nd against the Spurs. But even before that, Gasol wasn’t doing what his owners had been expecting given his top 10 status. He has played in four games since his return on January 14th, and in the time frame, he is ranked an extremely underwhelming 211th, as per Basketball Monster.com’s rankings.
Even if you only count his last two games — the only ones in which he played over 30 minutes — he’s still only ranked 79th, putting up 15.0 points, 5.5 rebounds and 2.0 blocks per game on a pedestrian 44 percent shooting from the field.
I’d try to offer someone a hot player like Nikola Pekovic or DeMar DeRozan in order to get Gasol onto my team, while even considering two-for-one deals.
We know Gasol has the talent — finishing 9th last year and 17th in 2011-12 in overall fantasy ranking — and to get a player of that caliber onto your roster halfway through the season is going a long way to ensuring success come playoff time.
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Sell High: Trevor Ariza, SF, Washington Wizards
Trevor Ariza has been one of the major surprises of this NBA season, particularly from a fantasy perspective. Going from being undrafted in most 10- and 12-team leagues, to currently residing in the top 30, it’s been a precipitous rise for the well-traveled veteran.
I just don’t think he can keep it going — at least not at the same rate. I don’t think he’s going to drop right off the radar and be replaced by rookie Otto Porter Jr. or anything crazy like that, I’m just not confident that he can keep up the ridiculous pace he’s set so far. This season he has averaged 13.7 points, 2.3 three-pointers, 6.0 rebounds and 1.9 steals per game, and is putting up his highest PER (15.8) since the 2007-08 season when he was with the Los Angeles Lakers.
A top 60 rank is probably a more realistic finish for Ariza, given he is ranked 53rd for the past month and has seen his scoring and shooting drop off considerably.
A few guys come to mind when I think about players to try and acquire in exchange for Ariza. Anderson Varejao from the Cavaliers has been on fire lately and may be able to be had for Ariza. Wesley Matthews and Derrick Favors would be another couple of guys I’d look to try and get, and if there is an owner who is incredibly frustrated with Deron Williams, I’d be ready to pounce on that type of deal.
Another way to think about things is to target players who are currently injured, like Kawhi Leonard and Kemba Walker. If you could get one of those two and you have the ability to stash them on your bench or IR slot, you’d go a long way toward winning your league.