It goes without saying that every year players will go early in Fantasy Baseball Drafts after having big season’s the prior year.
It also goes without saying that a lot of those guys will regress after posting big numbers, in the process driving fantasy owners crazy.
Sep 24, 2013; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Orioles first baseman Chris Davis (19) singles in the seventh inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Blue Jays defeated the Orioles 3-2 in ten innings. Mandatory Credit: Joy R. Absalon-USA TODAY Sports
This season will be no different as there are plenty of guys who won’t live up to their impressive 2013 campaigns.
Here’s a look at 10 guys to tread cautiously as they could experience a big dip in numbers in 2014.
Chris Davis, 1B, Baltimore Orioles
Ok. Raise your hands if you expected Davis to hit 53 homers and drive in 138 runs on draft day last season.
I didn’t expect to see any hands.
I fully expect for Davis to be productive again in 2014, but I also don’t expect for him to come close to his numbers of 2013. A regression is natural as there is a better than good chance that we have seen the best season of Davis’ career.
There are some concerns, beginning with the fact that he still struck out in 29.6 percent of his plate appearances, which was the seventh-highest rate of 2013. He also still struggles against left-handed pitching some times, although his .763 OPS against southpaws was respectable.
Finally, Davis hit only .245 with less than half of his first-half totals in homers, RBI and runs during the second half of the season.
I like Davis for power, but he is currently being selected anywhere from fifth overall to eighth and I don’t expect he will give you proper value in that slot.
Matt Carpenter, 2B, St. Louis Cardinals
Carpenter is expected to be a fantasy stud this season after almost coming out of nowhere to hit .318 with a whopping 55 doubles and scored an insane 126 runs, which were both MLB best numbers.
Aug 29, 2013; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Milwaukee Brewers center fielder Carlos Gomez (27) singles against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the second inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
He is being drafted among the top 70 picks in most drafts and I just don’t see him paying off in that spot.
For him produce in his draft slot, Carpenter would have to be among the league leaders in both average and runs scored again and that isn’t likely to happen and it is hard to predict. Carpenter doesn’t offer a whole lot in terms of power, so he is being drafted high on the premise that he will hit .325 and score 120 runs.
While I feel carpenter will be very good, I just don’t envision that happening.
Carlos Gomez, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
Gomez emerged as a fantasy stud, setting career-high numbers with a .284 AVG, 80 R, 73 RBI, 24 HR, and 40 SB.
His ADP right now is 34 and it is almost foolish to believe that Gomez will hit similar numbers across the board in consecutive seasons.
His walk (6.3 percent) and strikeout (24.7 percent) rates and BABIP (.344) are all indicators that Gomez is due for a regression in 2014.
Mike Cuddyer, OF, Colorado Rockies
Cuddyer went nuts last season, leading the National League with a .331 batting average. He also posted a .382 BABIP (third in baseball)
This comes from a career .277 hitter.
The facts are that you shouldn’t expect another career year from Cuddyer and he is unlikely to produce numbers that are worthy of his ADP of 83.
He will be 35 on Opening Day and has had a career filled with injuries Proceed with caution.
Josh Donaldson, 3B, Oakland A’s
Donaldson came out of nowhere and finished fourth in the American League MVP voting.
October 4, 2013; Oakland, CA, USA; Oakland Athletics starting pitcher Bartolo Colon (40) reacts after a pitch during the first inning in game one of the American League divisional series playoff baseball game against the Detroit Tigers at O.co Coliseum. The Tigers defeated Athletics 3-2. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
But I’m just not sold on his .301 BA, 89 R, 93 RBI, 24 HR, and 5 SB 2013 season.
I definitely don’t consider him among the To 50 fantasy options, which is where he is going in drafts.
Donaldson was a great story in 2013, but there is nothing about the 28-year olds minor league career that would suggest he can sustain his current rate of production.
Bartolo Colon, SP, New York Mets
Colon was very good last season in Oakland, but he has to regress eventually.
He is 41 years old after all.
I don’t expect anywhere near the pitcher who finished second in the AL with a 2.65 ERA and won 18 games last season.
He is in a nice pitchers park in New York, but eventually the numbers have to implode. I’m banking on it being this season.
Chris Tillman, SP, Baltimore Orioles
Tillman won 16 games last season and was an All-Star, posting a 3.71 ERA.
A big part of his success was the fact that he received 4.82 runs of support per start (11th-most in baseball)while pitching in front of one of the top offenses in baseball.
Tillman also had the 10th-worst FIP (4.42) in the game.
I wouldn’t expect a big season in 2014.
Hanley Ramirez. SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
Ramirez is going between the late first and early second rounds in almost every draft right now and that is a little high for my taste.
In only 86 games last year Ramirez posted gaudy fantasy numbers of .345 BA, 62 R, 57 RBI, 20 HR and 10 SB.
Oct 19, 2013; Boston, MA, USA; Detroit Tigers right fielder Torii Hunter (48) hits an infield single during the first inning in game six of the American League Championship Series baseball game against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
To me though there is too much risk involved.
He is 30 now and while he rediscovered the form early in his career that made him one of the top shortstop options, can anyone really predict that he won’t revert back to his struggles?
Ramirez should put up a good season and is going to be the first shortstop off the board, but I have a hard time believing in him enough to put up big numbers across the board.
He will be good, but I don’t know if he will produce at a first or second round worth rate and the injuries are always a concern when dealing with Ramirez.
Torii Hunter, OF, Detroit Tigers
Hunter hit .304 with 17 homers, 84 RBI and 90 runs last season.
But he’s a 38-year-old and had a .344 BABIP (19th highest) and 4.0 percent walk rate (sixth-lowest) last season.
He is another guy I expect to see a huge drop in production from and isn’t worthy of his current 162 ADP.
Domonic Brown, OF, Philadelphia Phillies
Brown currently has an ADP of 141, which is way too high.
Yes, he finally had a breakout season last year with 27 dingers, but if you look more closely and take out his his 12-homers-in-19-games binge from late May to early June, during which he also batted .397, his numbers the rest of the season really aren’t that impressive.