A big part of winning your fantasy baseball leagues is not buying into the hype of a players decline and identifying the right targets for a bounce back season.
These guys can make or break your drafts, but if you nab them at the right time, you can reap the benefits all season long.
I’ve identified 12 candidates (of many) that I can see having a big bounce back in 2014 after disappointing in 2013 in one way or another.
Oct 15, 2013; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Justin Verlander (35) throws against the Boston Red Sox in game three of the American League Championship Series baseball game at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports
Albert Pujols, 1B, Los Angeles Angels
Puljos won’t likely fall out of the third round of drafts as his ADP right now is 44.5, however I expect a big bounce back campaign. He is coming off his worst season of his career, but also played all of 2013 on one foot so fantasy owners should forgive him.
Is Puljos likely to put up the insane MVP numbers he did with the Cardinals? Not likely, but a 30 homer, 100 RBI season is not out of the question. Most of his declines have been age related. Don’t buy into last year’s sharp decline. That was injury related.
His triple slash line is in a five year downtrend, but he is still capable of a big year if he can stay healthy for a full season.
Justin Verlander, SP, Detroit Tigers
One thing I always look for are players who didn’t have their typical season, but finished the prior season very strong.
Verlander falls into that category.
He had a tough season in 2013, and injuries played a part in his decline. Verlander had surgery in the offseason, and those injury concerns are the reason he is only the ninth pitcher off the board in most drafts.
While Verlander got roughed up in the regular season, he was untouchable in the playoffs. He pitched three games in the postseason and he only allowed one run in 23 innings. There are signs that point to the fact that Verlander is now in the declining period of his career, but that doesn’t mean he is no longer one of the best pitchers in baseball.
He finished August and September strong and if you can grab him in the third or fourth round, where he has been going in most drafts, he could turn out to be a steal at that value. He’s still a top five pitcher and I would expect a 15-plus win season, an ERA in the low-three’s and over 225 strikeouts.
Matt Kemp, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
Kemp has burned me two years in a row so I am likely to avoid him at all costs. Based on that theory alone, I expect a big season.
He hasn’t been able to stay healthy over the last two seasons, but before going down with the ankle injury late in the season, he started to hit like the pre-2013 Kemp. When he is right, Kemp can be a game changer.
Even if he starts the season on the DL, once he gets to be 100 percent, I expect something big from Kemp. He has been going in the fourth and fifth rounds of many mocks and I can see him getting back to being a fantasy stud, as long as he is running.
One thing I do like is that with four outfielders in Los Angeles, Kemp is going to have to perform to stay in the lineup. That could be all the motivation he needs.
When he is healthy Kemp can easily get back to being a 20-20 guy.
Josh Hamilton, OF, Los Angeles Angels
Sep 26, 2013; Arlington, TX, USA; Los Angeles Angels right fielder Josh Hamilton (32) during batting practice before the game against the Texas Rangers at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
After signing a mega contract, Hamilton saw a significant drop in strength last season as his HR distance dropped from 416 to 401, and Speed of Batted balls dropped from 106 to 102. This is further supported by the drop in his HR/FB from 26% to only 13%.
It’s clear that Hamilton wasn’t himself last season and I expect big things this year. He has added 28 pounds of muscle (which I don’t know how that is possible in one offseason) and appears ready to redeem himself.
Hamilton hit just .250/.307/.432 with 21 HR, 73 runs and 79 RBI in 151 games, the most games he has played since 2008. Hamilton said he expects to hit .300, with 30 home runs and 100 RBI. I don’t project him that high, but I do expect a very good season. There are 24 outfielders going off the board right now before Hamilton. If you grab him at his current ADP of 70.5, consider yourself lucky.
Billy Butler, 1B/DH, Kansas City Royals
Butler has fallen down draft boards thanks to a power outage last season that saw him drop from 29 homers in 2012, down to only 15 last year.
The Royals brought in George Brett as hitting coach, which I think helps and Alex Gordon is slated to bat behind Butler this season which will also be beneficiary.
I don’t see Butler breaking that 30 homer plateau, but a .300 AVG, 20-23 homers and around 90 RBI would be a solid season from a guy that is currently going as an average of the 122nd player off the board.
Josh Reddick, OF, Oakland A’s
Reddick was banged up all year in 2013 after crashing into the wall. The results were a .225 hitter with only 12 homers.
His wrist is reportedly back to 100 percent, which is what I attribute his poor 2013 campaign to.
I don’t overvalue Reddick, but I think he can be a guy to hit 20-plus homers and drive in 80-plus runs. Those aren’t bad numbers for a guy that currently has an ADP of 199.7. He’s been the 57th outfielder off the board and I have a hard time believing that 56 other outfield eligible players will have a better season.
Matt Cain, SP, San Francisco Giants
Feb 16, 2014; Scottsdale, AZ, USA; San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Matt Cain (18) during camp at Scottsdale Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports
Go ahead and be down on Cain. I will take him in every league.
I could care less about the way that Cain started last season. He finished it by looking like the same old Cain.
He put up a 2.36 ERA, and cut his home runs allowed from 16 in the first half to seven in the second half of 2013. He will present good value on draft day as Cain is currently outside the Top 20 pitchers being drafted. By the end of the season he will be a Top 10 guy.
Nick Swisher, 1B/OF, Cleveland Indians
There’s nothing really spectacular about a guy who hits .270 with 20 homers and 80 RBI, but that is what Swisher does and he does it pretty consistently, doing so in three of the past four seasons.
Being that he was injured last year and didn’t have a great season, I expect Swisher to bounce back and put up his typical numbers.
Swisher will once again he hitting in the heart of an Indian lineup that won 92 games last season, and he should have plenty of opportunities to make plays and drive in runs. Swisher will be a very cheap pick on fantasy draft day, and he is well worth a late round pick since he should 100 percent healthy.
Being that he is going after pick No. 200 in most drafts, I will be glad to take a stab on a bounce back from Swisher that late.
Pablo Sandoval, 3B, San Francisco Giants
Sandoval is coming off a disappointing season but has come to camp 40 pounds lighter so you know he took the offseason seriously.
He is almost outside of the Top 15 drafted third baseman, but getting him that late (ADP 143) should provide great value at the position. Sandoval productive hitter in 2013, batting .278 with 14 home runs and 79 RBI, but has yet to match his breakthrough season of 2009.
It remains to be seen how the weight loss affects his production, but I’m willing to bet he hits close to .290 or higher and over 20 homers. That’s good value in the 11th or 12th round.
B.J. Upton, OF, Atlanta Braves
Sep 2, 2013; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves center fielder B.J. Upton (2) after scoring against the New York Mets during the 8th inning at Turner Field. The Braves won 13-5. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Liles-USA TODAY Sports
Was there any player that was a bigger fantasy disappointment than Upton in 2013?
His ADP (214.3)/draft day value will be down in a big way in 2014, and that presents a chance for huge value for fantasy owners who don’t write him off and draft him late. He still has the skills to put up a 20 HR, 30-plus stolen bases season, and you can get that very late in drafts.
The bottom line is take a shot on him late based on the fact that he can’t be that bad again. If he fixes his swing, the production could return.
I’m actually projecting a 20-20 season as his AVG will rise to around .250.
Yovani Gallardo, SP, Milwaukee Brewers
Gallardo has plummeted down many draft boards and there is no real reason why his ADP should be as low as 225. On average he is the 56th pitcher off the board, which is good for you as long as you do not write him off.
He had a poor start to the 2013 season, but posted a very good 3.09 ERA after the All-Star break. He’s only 27. He’s durable and has recorded 200 or more punch outs in three of the last four seasons.
Gallardo should be should be a great mid-to-late-round steal for fantasy owners draft day.
Brandon Beachy, SP, Atlanta Braves
Beachy is a year and a half past Tommy John surgery, which is around the usual timetable it takes to fully return.
His current ADP is 252.7 and when you can get a 27-year old pitcher with a career 3.23 ERA and 1.13 WHIP after the 20th round, jump all over him.
You are likely going to get an ERA in the low-threes, a WHIP under 1.20 and 13-15 wins that late for a guy people seem to have forgotten about.