Earlier in the week, I took a look at my 2014 Fantasy Baseball All-Sleeper Team.
Today it is time to look in a different direction.
Jul 27, 2013; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks catcher Miguel Montero (26) hits a solo home run against the San Diego Padres in the second inning at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Jennifer Stewart-USA TODAY Sports
Every year fantasy owners are stuck with a couple of big time busts on their roster. Guys who they draft relatively early, who just fail to produce. Often it is these guys who prevent you from winning your leagues.
With that being said, here is a look at my spring training 2014 All-Bust Team.
C- Miguel Montero, Arizona Diamondbacks (ADP 229.3)
Montero has dealt with back problems and unfortunately I just don’t ever see him becoming the same hitter he once was.
He slugged an anemic .344 and had the third-worst well-hit average (.149) among the 29 catchers with at least 300 plate appearances. He also saw his saw his XBH% drop from a career high of 11.2 in 2001 to a meager 6.1 percent last season.
I stay away from back problems and while Montero very well could have a rebound year, I wouldn’t consider him a top 15 catcher any longer, which is where he is being drafted.
1B- Albert Pujols, Los Angeles Angels (ADP 44.3)
I did have Pujols as one of my candidates for a bounce back season, but given the fact that he is being drafted in the third round, I just don’t feel he will produce that type of value.
Now 34, Pujols is in the decline phase of his career. Whether it’s his strikeout rate, isolated power, contact rate, swinging strike percentage or a multitude of other indicators, they’re all trending in the wrong direction and have been for years.
He will rebound some in 2014, but the trends just indicate that he is not a wise third-round investment.
2B- Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati Reds (ADP 117.3)
Sep 28, 2013; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Cincinnati Reds second baseman Brandon Phillips (4) reacts after scoring during the third inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Frank Victores-USA TODAY Sports
I hope I’m wrong here as I have Phillips at a nice number in a pair of NL-only keeper leagues, but I’m not overly excited about his prospects for the 2014 campaign.
The 106 RBI last season were nice, but also seems hard to repeat, especially with on-base machine Shin-Soo Choo now gone from the top of the lineup.
Phillips is a decent source of middle infield power, but he is also not running anymore and his batting average could be a liability on any team.
The downward trends suggest things are about to get a lot worse for Phillips.
3B- Aramis Ramirez, Milwaukee Brewers (ADP 160.5)
Ramirez gets Ryan Braun back in the lineup which should help, but he is 36 now and coming off a season in which he posted only a 12 homer, 49 RBI season in only 300 at bats.
He’s at the age now where you are going to start seeing a sharp decline.
His 80 percent contact rate should result in a decent batting average, but I would expect to see a huge dip in the power numbers.
SS- Starlin Castro, Chicago Cubs (ADP 126.8)
Castro is only 24 so there is still plenty of upside with him, but I’m banking on the real Castro is more like the 2013 version opposed to the 2012 version.
His Singles% last year was at .238, which cost his average about 40 points. He also saw a huge drop in batted ball speed on HRs, which dropped from 104 to 102, which directly correlated to his measly 5 HR/FB rate.
Given that his effort is often questioned, I wouldn’t expect to see too much of a rebound in 2014.
He should be better, but likely not worth of being a top 10 shortstop which is sad because this kid is talented.
OF- Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers (ADP 43.5)
Oh Mr. Kemp. How you have burned me big time the past two years.
I also think that Kemp will rebound this season, but nowhere near to the point where he will produce second or third round value.
Oct 4, 2013; Boston, MA, USA; Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Matt Moore (55) rubs a baseball between pitches during the second inning in game one of the American League divisional series playoff baseball game against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
He has had two surgeries since last season ended, the latter on his ankle, which is the one threatening his status for Opening Day. It doesn’t even matter much to me that he could miss some time in April, it’s that his ankle problems have lingered.
Kemp is a guy who gets about 30 percent of his value from stealing bases. He could hit 20-plus homers and drive in 80-plus runs while hitting close to .300. But if he isn’t running much anymore, he doesn’t have the same value.
Then there is the fact that the Dodgers have four capable outfielders and Don Mattingly will have no problem sitting Kemp when he isn’t going good.
When Kemp is right, he is a game changer.
He clearly isn’t right.
SP- Matt Moore, Tampa Rays (ADP 146.0)
Many may argue that Moore is a potential fantasy stud as only four pitchers won more games than Moore last season.
I always say don’t look at wins as they are the worst gauge of a starting pitcher.
Last season, 58 pitchers had a better WAR. Moore also piled on the walks and wild pitches as he led the league in wild pitches. He was also fortunate in BABIP and LOB% last season. His xFIP was more than a run higher than his ERA.
My biggest concerns include .254 BABIP and only 14 quality starts last season.
Those aren’t good signs heading into 2014 for Moore, who could end up getting lit up this season.
RP- Jonathan Papelbon, Philadelphia Phillies (ADP 139.0)
Do yourself a favor and stay away from Papelbon, especially with his current ADP.
His WHIP (1.14) and ERA (2.92) both went in the wrong direction from 2012 to 2013, and his seven blown saves were as many as the previous two seasons combined. His K/9 rate (8.32) was a career-low, and a major step backward from the prior three seasons.
In addition was outspoken about the Phillies’ offseason moves. He’s a guy that could end up being dealt sometime during the season and if he is there is no guarantee he will be another team’s closer.