Every year fantasy baseball owners come into draft day with a strategy and every year that strategy likely gets thrown out the window within the first 10 minutes of your draft.
The key is to not panic, which we have all done at one time or another, and stick to your strategy.
Jul 14, 2013; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks catcher Miguel Montero (26) sits in the dugout in the game against the Milwaukee Brewers at Chase Field. The Brewers defeated the Diamondbacks 5-1. Mandatory Credit: Jennifer Stewart-USA TODAY Sports
You never want to overpay for guys out of panic.
If you don’t get the guys you want, don’t reach two or three rounds early on other guys as there is always value to be had later in drafts.
There are always guys who you can buy low on late in drafts that will produce better value than where you get them. Getting your hands on a couple of these buy-low options is always a key to winning at the end of the year.
With that being said, let’s take a look at a good buy-low option at every position. For the sake of the piece, a player must have a current ADP of 200 or lower.
C- Miguel Montero, Arizona Diamondbacks (ADP 231.5)
I have written on more than a few occasions that I’m not overly excited about Montero this season coming off a year with back problems.
He slugged an anemic .344 and had the third-worst well-hit average (.149) among the 29 catchers with at least 300 plate appearances. He also saw his saw his XBH% drop from a career high of 11.2 in 2001 to a meager 6.1 percent last season.
However on the positive side, he does put good wood on the ball (104 batted ball speed) which makes a bounce back season a possibility.
Monitor his health in spring training. While I don’t ever expect him to be the same hitter, a .275 AVG, 15 HR and 70 RBI season isn’t out of the possibility.
Montero is only going on average in the 19th round and 12-team leagues and I currently have him at only 16 on my most recent catchers’ rankings. If you are confident on a rebound season, Montero is a nice buy-low option.
1B- Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees (ADP 200.5)
Yankees first baseman Mark Teixeira expects to play 150 games this season, according to the New York Post.
Teixeira was limited to 15 games last season due to wrist injuries. He’s rehabbed the injury during the offseason and feels good about his chances to be ready by opening day. He added that he’ll take it slow during spring training, but only needs 50 at-bats to get a good handle on how his wrist will perform.
He hit .151/.270/.340 in 53 at-bats last year.
Yet despite the injuries and struggles, he is a great buy-low option.
First basemen are going to go early in your drafts and if you don’t get one in the first few rounds don’t panic.
At 34, there’s plenty of pop left in Teixeira’s bat if he can keep that wrist healthy. If healthy he’s still a solid 25 and 80 guy, which is good value in the 19th or 20th round as there are 28 other first basemen being taken before Teixeira.
2B- Neil Walker, Pittsburgh Pirates (ADP 250.5)
Sep 22, 2013; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates second baseman Neil Walker (18) rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run against the Cincinnati Reds during the third inning at PNC Park. The Reds won 11-3. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Walker is coming off a down year, in which he clubbed a career-high 16 home runs in 2013, but he hit just .251, which was a career low for a full season. Walker’s struggles came against left-handed pitchers, as he hit .225 against them and all 16 of his homers came against right-handed pitchers.
But he hit .295 in 2010 and .269 in 2011 against left-handed pitchers, so he has a track record of performing from the right side of the plate.
Despite the down season, Walker still finished in the Top 14 among MLB second basemen in AVG, RBI and OPS and finished ninth in homers.
In addition, Walker’s xRBI says his RBI was underrepresented by 15 last season and his batting average should have been higher with an unlucky Singles % of .212.
Walker likely won’t be a top five second basemen in 2014, but he represents great value going in rounds 20 and 21 on average.
3B- Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies (ADP 203.8)
Arenado is a guy I am excited about, especially after pick 200.
Our Joseph Theroux broke down his potential:
Arenado is already a great contact hitter, posting a well above average rate of 82.2% last year. His K rate (14%) was exceptional as well, ranking fifth among all eligible third basemen. Though his walk rate was merely 4.5 percent we can expect to see this number rise since he has been significantly better in the minors (8.1 in 2011, 6.8 in 2012).
Could we see 20-plus HRs from Arenado in 2014?
Maybe, but he’ll have to pick it up verses RHP (.370 SLG) in for that to happen.
I like the way Arenado is trending and will be a great buy-low option on draft day.
SS- Jed Lowrie, Oakland A’s (ADP 205.8)
I found it insane that Lowrie is going after 17 other shortstops right now.
He’s coming off a year in which he stayed healthy and posted a .290/.344/.446 slash line in 603 at-bats.
Will Lowrie hit .290 again?
Probably not but he will hit .270 and show some power.
Lowrie has posted a very good XBH rate (10.2%) and his batted ball speed of 100 on HRs, tells us that he’s not likely to take a big bump up in HRs.
If you are passing on Lowrie, I will thank you later as I will take .270, 18, and 80 around the 20th round all the time.
OF- Josh Reddick, Oakland A’s (ADP 200.0)
Aug 18, 2013; Oakland, CA, USA; Oakland Athletics right fielder Josh Reddick (16) heads to third base during the third inning in a against the Cleveland Indians game at O.co Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Bob Stanton-USA TODAY Sports
Last season, Reddick hit .226/.307/.379 in 385 at-bats, but most of that is due to injuries.
Reddick has proclaimed himself 100 percent healthy heading into 2014 and is expressing confidence in a bounce-back season. His batting average last season dropped from .242 to .226 and slugging percentage plummeted from .463 to .379.
I expect that to rebound in 2014 as he should hit over .250 with over 20 homers and 80 RBI while having the potential to possibly swipe double digit steals.
SP- Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers (ADP 225.7)
I can’t figure out how Gallardo is going so low in drafts.
Gallardo has plummeted down many draft boards and there is no real reason why his ADP should be as low as 225. On average he is the 56th pitcher off the board, which is good for you as long as you do not write him off.
He had a poor start to the 2013 season, but posted a very good 3.09 ERA after the All-Star break. He’s only 27. He’s durable and has recorded 200 or more punch outs in three of the last four seasons.
Gallardo should be should be a great mid-to-late-round buy-low option for your team.
RP- Nate Jones, Chicago White Sox (ADP 222.0)
Jones posted a 4.15 ERA in 78 innings last season and is dealing with a glute strain, but the injury is not considered serious. Jones is reportedly feeling much better, and should be able to return to full action soon. He’s expected to compete for the closer role.
He averages 98 MPH with his fastball, and can use either a slider or changeup to completely fool hitters. New closers are always dicey, but Jones could be one of those guys that becomes a household name in no time.
Don’t look at his overall numbers as he was outstanding and nearly unhittable from June-August last year.
Don’t make the mistake on reaching for closer too early as Jones could be one of the last ones off the board and produce solid results.