Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
HIGH FIVE/low five
Daily Fantasy can be quite the grind! Let us do the grinding for you with “High Five/Low Five”. Each day we help put you in the money by presenting you with FIVE of the “top-tier” plays, as well as a quick list of FIVE “value plays”. Orlando Magics’ C Nikola Vucevic flies high as Wednesday’s top Daily Fantasy Basketball play.
Let’s rip it up.
HIGH FIVE:
Point Guard: Damian Lillard, POR ($7,900): With LaMarcus Aldridge still nowhere in sight and Lillard’s price still not reflective of his recent play, Lillard is a must play tonight against the Brooklyn Nets. The Nets are middle-of-the-road vs. opposing PGs and this game should be high scoring and close with a spread of just two points. Lillard has averaged above his value threshold of 39.5 FPs since the All-Star break, including a 53.9 FP performance last night and should have absolutely no problem falling somewhere in between those two numbers tonight.
Shooting Guard: James Harden, HOU ($9,200): Sometimes you’ve got to pay the high price for the high production of a player like Harden. Especially on a night like tonight, when there is quite a drop off from him to the next tier at SG. Harden has averaged nearly 25 percent above his value threshold since the All-Star break and should be good to surpass value once again vs. the Los Angeles Clippers. Vegas has pegged this as the highest scoring game of the night with an over/under of 222 points. It also figures to remain competitive throughout with a spread of just six, so Harden should get plenty of minutes to do damage against a Clippers backcourt that ranks just 22nd vs. opposing SGs.
Small Forward: Chandler Parsons, HOU ($7,200): It’s never a bad thing to have exposure to a game with a 222 over/under at a couple of different positions and Parsons is the lowest priced among those that could be heavy hitters in tonight’s game. In addition to that, he’s also the last guy before you get into the muck of the middle tier at SF. The matchup isn’t the greatest, with the Clippers ranking 10th vs. opposing SFs, but the pace of tonight’s game should alleviate some of those concerns. Also, I feel much better and safer about spending $7,200 on Parsons than I do spending 5K more for three quarters of Kevin Durant or 2K less on any one of the boom or bust players below him.
Power Forward: Thaddeus Young ($7,800): I want to preface this pick with saying that both Blake Griffin, LAC ($9,800) and Anthony Davis, NOP ($9,800) are both in great spots tonight and make fine plays — especially Griffin — but that much is obvious. Young represents the top play that’s a little bit down the board, yet not quite into the middle tier. His opponent for tonight, the Orlando Magic, rank 22nd against PFs and will struggle to defend Young, who has seen an increase in his usage rate following the trade deadline. Young has averaged 59 FPs in his last two, and while he may not reach that number tonight, the 39 FPs he’ll need to reach value is very much within reach. Another player who I think can do work for a similar price is Zach Randolph, MEM ($7,400) in a game against the Los Angeles Lakers, who rank dead last vs. opposing PFs.
Center: Nikola Vucevic, ORL ($7,000): Last night, Vucevic was able to post 39.8 FPs against Marcin Gortat and the Washington Wizards, who rank 12th against opposing centers. Tonight, he squares off against a Philadelphia 76ers team that ranks 29th against the center position, in what should be a higher scoring game than last night’s was. Do the math. Philadelphia has absolutely nobody capable of containing Vucevic and I would not be surprised to see him top last night’s score. Either way, I think his value threshold of 35 FPs represents his floor and when someone’s value threshold is their floor, you play them.
Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
low five:
Point Guard: WIll Bynum, DET ($4,200): Will Bynum lost some of his minutes last game, but with tonight’s game looking like a blowout and the San Antonio Spurs ranking just 26th against point guards, I’m thinking Bynum gets his minutes back and produces above the 21 FPs he’ll need to reach value. One more situation that should be monitored is the health of Goran Dragic and Leandro Barbosa. Both are questionable tonight and if they were to sit, Ishmael Smith, PHO ($3,700) becomes a great play for almost the near minimum in salary.
Shooting Guard: James Anderson, PHI ($4,300): Last night, I’m pretty sure I was the only expert to recommend Kent Bazemore (who really paid off) so I’ll do so again tonight. My pick to click though, is Anderson, who will be facing an Orlando Magic defense that ranks just 26th against shooting guards in what figures to be a close and high scoring game.
Small Forward: Maurice Harkless, ORL ($3,700): Harkless was last night’s pick at this position and should pay off again tonight in a tastier matchup with Arron Afflalo once again expected to be out. Another player that I think can be a sneaky play here is Matt Barnes, LAC ($4,800).
Power Forward: Mike Scott, ATL ($4,500): Lots of bodies are out for Atlanta, and for the most part Mike Scott has produced when given the chance. Expect him to get value tonight against the Boston Celtics in a close game.
Center: Alexis Ajinca, NOP ($3,600): With 27 minutes in back-to-back games and an average of nearly 29 FPs in those two contests, I like Ajinca’s chances to exceed his value threshold of 18 FPs tonight in a high scoring game vs. the Dallas Mavericks and their 18th-ranked defense vs. opposing centers.
Thank you and good luck tonight !!!
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