Fantasy Baseball: 2014 Fantasy Outlook for the Biogenesis Five
Mandatory Credit: Brad Barr-USA TODAY Sports
In 2014, fantasy drafts are going to have an unprecedented nuance to them.
How do owners assess the value of the big name fantasy baseball players returning from PED suspensions stemming from last year’s Biogenesis scandal?
There is currently no way to scientifically project seasons of players who have been suspended for using performance enhancing drugs. The sample size of these players is far too small and their achievements before and after the suspensions are all over the map.
In 2012 three players were suspended for PED use:
Melky Cabrera was coming off of a huge breakout season and was in the middle of another big year when he was suspended. Last year Toronto gave him a big contract and he rewarded them a big pile of hot garbage. He was dinged up all year and saw his OPS against lefties plummet over five hundred points!
Yasmani Grandal, in between the suspension — and season-ending ACL surgery — continued to not live up to his prospect hype.
Bartolo Colon returned to post the lowest ERA of his career and win 18 games on a shockingly good Oakland A’s team. Then again, who needs PEDs when you can just have stem cell therapy?
Thanks to last year’s Biogenesis scandal, 13 players get smacked with suspensions — the most simultaneous suspensions in baseball history — beating the previous record of eight men out in the 1919 Black Sox scandal.
Let’s take a look at the five fantasy relevant ne’er-do-wells out of the 13 and break down how they’d look on your fantasy roster.
Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Nelson Cruz, OF, Baltimore Orioles:
Cruz’s problem has always been with staying healthy. In 2009, his first “full” season, he posted an .856 OPS with 33 bombs and 20 steals in 128 games. In 2010 he only made it through 108 games, but his OPS shot up to a .924 mark.
It wasn’t until 2012—while on every single one of my teams—when he finally delivered a 159 game season. Unfortunately he was only able to muster 24 homers, eight thefts, and a measly .779 OPS. Son of a . . .
Come 2013 I stayed far away from him and watched in envy and horror as he exploded out of the gate with 20 home runs in the first half. He seemed healthy, unstoppable, and then, well, you know . . .
Cruz claimed that he had taken PEDs because of a stomach infection that had sapped him of his strength and weight. He needed the drugs in order to recover more quickly and to be able to perform well
in his contract year
.
I’m willing to take Cruz at his word, which means we just throw his last season out of the window, give him a mulligan, and draft as if it were 2013 again — the 2013 where I stayed away from him like pizza at a Chinese buffet.
For the last several years his contact rate has been consistently slipping and currently sits at a shabby 72.9%. His once 20-steal speed has dwindled to an almost nothing.
On the bright side, he will be playing mostly DH, which could certainly help him stay healthy. While he may be leaving the hitter heaven of Rangers Ballpark, Baltimore’s Camden Yards is almost as friendly to right-handed sluggers, making it a non-issue.
I’d pencil Cruz in for .260 with 20 HR and 5 steals in 450 AB. Cruz is currently being drafted as the 32nd outfielder off the board at Mock Draft Central.com, just before Carlos Beltran and Coco Crisp. That’s a reasonable spot to take Cruz depending on what your team looks like. Just a few spots after him are Alejandro De Aza, Austin Jackson and Leonys Martin, who would definitely suit your squad better if you need some speed.
Don’t target Nelson Cruz, but if the rest of your league is PED adverse, you could definitely do worse.
Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
Everth Cabrera, SS, San Diego Padres:
Cabrera was absolutely tearing up the league last season with a career high .355 OBP and an NL-leading 37 steals when the suspensions were handed out. Cabrera delivered a heartfelt tearful apology, claiming to have used PEDs for four days in spring training of 2012 while recovering from a shoulder injury. His conscience got the better of him and he quit.
What’s this mean? If Cabrera is to be believed, then his breakout last year was 100 percent legit. He’s always taken his share of free passes, but last year he dropped his strikeout rate from 24.5% to 15.9%. His contact rate rose to a career-best 86.5%. The only PED shown to increase contact rate is gamma radiation.
He is currently being drafted behind Jimmy Rollins (absolutely insane) and Jonathan Villar, who in a few years may be the poor man’s Everth Cabrera.
I already talked about my love for Cabrera when I went through my shortstop tiers. I’m taking the drug discount and drafting this guy in every league except my home league where I already have Troy Tulowitzki. Even so, I may end up drafting him for when Tulo inevitably gets hurt.
Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Jesus Montero, C, Seattle Mariners:
I just spent ten minutes googling diet pills so that I could make a clever PED/fat joke, but you can use your imagination. Suffice to say, Montero did nothing but eat this offseason. He said it himself.
Let’s assume for a moment that becoming the laughingstock of the baseball Twitterverse motivates him to get into shape. Let’s also assume he’ll be healthy after having torn his meniscus last season. Let’s also assume that he finds some playing time amidst the gaggle of Seattle 1B/DH types like Justin Smoak, Corey Hart, and Logan Morrison.
Great, now not only are we both asses, but he’s still not interesting. There has been nothing in his numbers over the last two years to provide any hope. The only things left are his age (24) and his pedigree (a bunch of people used to think he was going to be awesome).
This is his last year of catcher eligibility so if you’re in a 15-team, 2-catcher league, you could do worse than throw a buck or a late-round pick his way. Me, I’ll leave him for someone who is either really bad at admitting when a prospect is a bust or really good at fat jokes.
Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
Jhonny Peralta, SS, St. Louis Cardinals:
The only thing interesting about Peralta is the spelling of his name. Even his role in the Biogenesis scandal is boring: he just kind of admitted it, shrugged, took his licks, and came back for the playoffs.
With or without The Juice, Peralta can be counted on, year in year out, to bring you 10-15 bombs in a power starved position. His peripherals point to a .260-ish hitter every year, though he occasionally lucks out — an ungodly .374 BABIP last year led to his first season in which he batted over .300.
You can do much better for a starting shortstop. He’s serviceable as a middle infielder if you sleep on the position.
Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Ryan Braun, LF, Milwaukee Brewers:
Aaaaaand, here we go.
Look, we both know there is nothing I can write here that is going to change your minds about Ryan Braun. Far more intelligent people than I have broken down the numbers to present their case one way or another. Far louder people than I have made impassioned speeches. I’m just going to present what I’m doing about Braun this year.
Ryan Braun can go suck a lemon.
He will be on none of my teams this year. In fact, he was my team’s cornerstone in my home league and I shopped him this offseason and unloaded him at a discount price. Just the thought of having to look at his name every morning made me want to calmly remove my glasses and then pour hot sauce into my eyeballs. I have many rules in fantasy baseball, but none is more important than “The Prime Directive”:
Fantasy Baseball is fun.
The Prime Directive is the reason why I go out of my way in an attempt to get Dustin Pedroia in every league. It is the reason why every year I end up having a little too much to drink on my home league’s Draft Day, my favorite day of the year. It is the reason why I will never own a Yankees’ closer.
I am not a soapbox-climbing PED hater, far from it. I believe firmly that Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds should be in the Hall of Fame. However, The Rocket was never on one of my fantasy teams. Bonds was once and I felt filthy, sleazy, and vowed never to own a player I personally disliked again.
I’ve already extolled how much I like Everth Cabrera. He seems like a good dude who made a bad decision and is genuinely remorseful. I tend to give people the benefit of the doubt the first time, but fool me twice and your name is a swear word in my house.
When Braun was busted for the first time my leaguemates (somewhat jokingly) called foul and wanted an asterisk put next to the championship that Braun helped me win. I was a Ryan Braun fan and the I was the ultimate Braun apologist. All of his qualms with the testing process sounded entirely reasonable to me. I defended Braun not only to my buddies in the league but to other friends, co-workers, and other random people. When he won his appeal I felt that we were both exonerated.
When he was busted for the second and (presumably) final time, I hit the ceiling.
If you do something wrong be a man. Don’t be a little punk and throw some poor guy under the bus just for doing his job. Own your screw-ups. Andy Pettitte did, and that’s why everyone’s still pretty much okay with him. Roger Clemens did not, and that’s reason No. 539 why he’s an intergalactic scumbag. Everth Cabrera did, and he’s welcome on my team. Ryan Braun did not. He is welcome to fall down the up side of an escalator for eternity.
I don’t blame people for drafting Braun in the late first round this year. I’d rather take someone with comparable talent, but who I actually want to root for, like Bryce Harper or Adam Jones.
Winning is fun, but it’s not more fun than playing.