The Mercer Bears are heading back to the Big Dance for the first time since 1985 (Mandatory Credit: Brendan Maloney-USA TODAY Sports)
Over the next few days I will be dispensing all the up-to-the-minute info you’ll need to know before you fill out your 2014 NCAA Tournament brackets next week.
In this piece, the first of a ongoing series, I will focus on many of the teams from the traditional one-bid conferences that have already secured automatic entry into the 2014 NCAA Tournament.
These teams may seem unimportant, but don’t be so sure about that. Bracket busters over the last five years such as Northern Iowa, Bucknell, Savannah State, Davidson, and George Mason all came from one-bid conferences. Any one of the teams in this column could pull off the same feat!
Check back later today as I complete my predictions and help you fill out that perfect bracket!
Now, let’s go dancing…
(RPI are in parentheses)
AMERICA EAST CONFERENCE:
Regular Season Champion: Vermont
Conference tourney champion: TBD (Albany vs. Stony Brook, March 15)
Albany (17-14, RPI 212, SOS 297)
vs. RPI top 50: 0-1
vs. RPI under 200: 12-5
Quality wins: NONE
Projected Seed: 16
Bad losses: vs. (254) Colgate, at (282) Massachusetts-Lowell, at (340) New Hampshire, at (233) Hartford, at (327) UMBC
The Great Danes’ conference tourney win over Vermont seems like a fluke considering the Catamounts beat them by a combined 40 points in their two regular season meetings. The Danes have a good shot at their second straight NCAA Tournament berth considering they beat Stony Brook at home by 10 points on January 29th.
Stony Brook (22-9, RPI 154, SOS 328)
vs. RPI top 50: 0-2
vs. RPI under 200: 21-2
Quality wins: NONE
Bad losses: at (212) Albany, vs. (340) New Hampshire
Projected Seed: 16
For the second time in three seasons, the Seawolves are on the cusp of their first ever NCAA Tournament berth. All they have to do is get by a pesky Albany team that they split the season series with — losing by 10 in Albany and winning by five at home. Regular season champion Vermont lost to Albany in the conference tournament semifinals, missing out on their first tournament berth in two years. The Catamounts seem to be NIT-bound with their 105 RPI.
ATLANTIC SUN CONFERENCE
Regular Season Champion: Florida Gulf Coast
Automatic Bid: Mercer
Mercer (23-8, RPI 81, SOS 218)
vs. RPI top 50: 0-2
vs. RPI under 200: 14-1
Quality wins: at (87) Mississippi
Bad losses: at (209) Evansville
Projected Seed: 14
The Bears are dancing for the first time since 1985 after knocking off a Florida Gulf Coast team that decimated thousands of brackets last year in the NCAA Tournament. FGCU will now have to try to do to the NIT bracket what they did in the NCAAs last year.
What’s a Chanticleer? Who knows, but they’re back in the tourney for the first time since 1993 (Mandatory Credit: Jeff Blake-USA TODAY Sports)
BIG SKY CONFERENCE:
Regular Season Champion: Weber State
Automatic Bid: TBD
Weber State (17-11, RPI 168, SOS 265)
vs. RPI top 50: 0-2
vs. RPI under 200: 14-5
Quality wins: NONE
Bad losses: at (222) Northern Colorado, at (262) Sacramento State, at (290) Idaho State, vs. (237) Northern Arizona, at (258) Portland State
Projected Seed: 16
It’s not like the Wildcats ran roughshod over the Big Sky this season. In fact, they lost one game each to the teams they could face in the first round of the Big Sky tourney (Montana and Portland State). The Wildcats’ advancement to the NCAA Tournament is hardly a foregone conclusion. At the very least they will get an NIT invite.
BIG SOUTH CONFERENCE:
Regular Season Champion: North- High Point; South- Coastal Carolina
Automatic Bid: Coastal Carolina
Coastal Carolina (21-12, RPI 194, SOS 290)
vs. RPI top 50: 0-0
vs. RPI under 200: 15-3
Quality wins: NONE
Bad losses: at (330) South Carolina State, vs. (330) South Carolina State, at (273) Charleston Southern
Projected Seed: 16
The Chanticleers have made it back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1993. If you can find a silver lining in all of their bad losses, it is that all of them occurred early in the season, with the last of the three happening on January 8th.
BIG WEST CONFERENCE:
Regular Season Champion: University of California-Irvine
Automatic Bid: TBD
UC-Irvine (22-10, RPI 106, SOS 201)
vs. RPI top 50: 0-2
vs. RPI under 200: 14-1
Quality wins: at (96) Washington
Bad losses: at (266) Cal State Northridge
Projected Seed: 14
The Anteaters lost to No. 2-seed UCSB by 20 in Santa Barbara. In fact, the Gauchos have an RPI eight slots higher than Irvine, mostly due to knocking off RPI 55 California. Irvine has never made it to the NCAA Basketball Tournament, so the question here is can they parlay a regular season title into a ticket to the dance? With four conference losses, it’s not a sure thing….
Harvard coach Tommy Amaker will lead the Ivy League champs into the tournament for the third consecutive year (Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports)
COLONIAL ATHLETIC ASSOCIATION:
Regular Season Champion: Delaware
Automatic Bid: Delaware
Delaware (25-9, RPI 68, SOS 180)
vs. RPI top 50: 0-3
vs. RPI under 200: 17-1
Quality wins: NONE
Bad losses: vs. (272) Charleston Southern
Projected Seed: 13
The Blue Hens are tourney-bound for the first time this century. Their last berth came in 1999. This is a team that could be a dangerous lower-seed. They gave Villanova all they could handle earlier this year, and hung with Ohio State for most of the game. If given a good draw, the Blue Hens might be able to get their first tournament victory in their fifth try.
HORIZON LEAGUE:
Regular Season Champion: Green Bay
Automatic Bid: Milwaukee
Milwaukee (21-13, RPI 128, SOS 210)
vs. RPI top 50: 0-1
vs. RPI under 200: 11-5
Quality wins: at (62) Green Bay, vs. (62) Green Bay at Dayton
Bad losses: at (289) Loyola-Chicago, vs. (219) Northeastern, vs. (227) Detroit, at (236) Youngstown State, vs. (314) Illinois-Chicago
Projected Seed: 15
Two of the Panthers’ three games against regular-season champ Green Bay went into overtime, with Milwaukee exacting revenge with a win where it really counts — in the conference tournament. Milwaukee is going back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2006, when they won their opening round game against Oklahoma. As for Green Bay? They will have to settle for a spot in the NIT.
IVY LEAGUE:
Regular Season Champion: Harvard
Automatic Bid: Harvard
Harvard (26-4, RPI 50, SOS 211)
vs. RPI top 50: 0-2
vs. RPI under 200: 13-1
Quality wins: vs. (62) Green Bay at Anchorage, at (82) Boston University
Bad losses: at (270) Florida Atlantic
Projected Seed: 12
Harvard is going to the tourney for the third consecutive year after a 66-year drought. That kind of makes up for it, huh? The Crimson knocked off New Mexico in their opening game last year before falling to Arizona. This year they should get a slightly better seed, but do they really need it?
Manhattan beat Iona to reach the tourney for the first time since 2004 (Mandatory Credit: Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports)
METRO ATLANTIC ATHLETIC CONFERENCE:
Regular Season Champion: Iona
Automatic Bid: Manhattan
Manhattan (25-7, RPI 61, SOS 171)
vs. RPI top 50: 0-1
vs. RPI under 200: 12-2
Quality wins: at (89) La Salle, vs. (62) Iona, vs. (62) Iona at Springfield, MA
Bad losses: vs. (222) Fordham, at (294) Fairfield
Projected Seed: 13
The Jaspers took two out of three from Iona to secure a spot in the field of 68. The Gaels will be NIT-bound despite a respectable 62 RPI. Manhattan last appeared in the tournament in 2004.
MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE:
Regular Season Champion: Toledo
Automatic Bid: TBD
Toledo (26-5, RPI 37, SOS 155)
vs. RPI top 50: 0-1
vs. RPI under 200: 11-1
Quality wins: NONE
Bad losses: at (203) Northern Illinois
Projected Seed: 13
Surprisingly enough, there are four other MAC teams that are also in the RPI top 100. Toledo is the highest among them, but they still don’t have a “quality” win (which would be a win over a RPI top 100 team on the road or a win against an RPI top 75 team at home). They managed to hang with Kansas, and the overall solid play of the MAC could benefit the Rockets even if they don’t win the auto-bid from the conference. An RPI of 37 will have them in the discussion to be an at large team. That said, Toledo must make the MAC Championship Game and lose a close one if they want any chance. The Rockets last made the NCAA Tournament in 1980.
MID-EASTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE:
Regular Season Champion: North Carolina Central
Automatic Bid: TBD
North Carolina Central (26-5, RPI 111, SOS 344)
vs. RPI top 50: 0-2
vs. RPI under 200: 20-2
Quality wins: at (65) North Carolina State
Bad losses: at (322) IUPUI, at (287) Florida A&M
Projected Seed: 15
The Eagles have never been to the Big Dance, and with only one conference loss all season, they are about as close to a lock as you can get heading into the conference tournament. In fact, aside from their one loss, only three teams managed to keep the Eagles within 10 points. That is conference domination, folks!