Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to Part Two of my series focusing on college basketball teams heading to the 2014 NCAA Tournament. This cheat sheet will give you all the relevant numbers that you need to know when picking your brackets.
I’ve already released my first piece, which covered the American, Atlantic 10, ACC, and Big 12 Conferences.
This installment will feature the Big East, Big Ten, Conference USA, and Mountain West Conference. Keep checking back on Fantasy CPR as I continue to preview the remaining conferences all Saturday long.
One thing to note about this and further installments is that I hold teams from “major” conferences to a higher standard. Any loss to a team with an RPI under 100 is a bad loss. Quality wins are against teams RPI 60 or above at home, and 75 and above for road or neutral site games.
This part deals with those conference that will have more than one bid, but less than the major conferences.
Let’s keep dancing…
(RPI is in parentheses)
BIG EAST CONFERENCE:
Regular Season Champion: Villanova
Projected Bids: 4
Villanova (28-4, RPI 5, SOS 28)
vs. RPI top 50: 4-3
vs. RPI under 200: 3-0
Quality wins: vs. (3) Kansas at Paradise Island, Bahamas, vs (54) Iowa at Paradise Island, Bahamas, at (39) St. Joseph’s, at (63) St John’s, at (67) Georgetown, vs. (45) Xavier, at (51) Providence, at (45) Xavier
Bad losses: vs. (126) Seton Hall at New York
Projected seed: 2
Villanova had a one seed locked up. All they had to do was get out of the first round of the Big East Tournament. Well, they didn’t. They were felled on a last second shot by Seton Hall in one of the first salvos of March Madness tournament basketball. The Wildcats might still end up with a one seed, though. After all, the committee has said repeatedly that the emphasis is placed on the regular season and not the conference tournament. That said, ‘Nova left the door wide open for Michigan or Wisconsin if they can win the Big Ten tournament.
Creighton (25-6, RPI 8, SOS 24)
vs. RPI top 50: 6-3
vs. RPI under 200: 4-0
Quality wins: at (39) St. Joseph’s, vs. (41) Arizona State at Fullerton, CA, vs. (47) Nebraska, vs. (45) Xavier, at (5) Villanova, vs. (5) Villanova
Bad losses: NONE
Projected Seed: 3 if they win the Big East tourney, 4 if not
The Blue Jays beat Villanova twice by a combined 49 points. That kind of domination over a top five team shows that this team is primed to make a big tournament run this year. They probably have the player of the year in Doug McDermott, and a very good supporting cast around him this year. The fact that there is nothing in that bad loss column has them chasing down a two seed. The win over Xavier might clinch it. A Big East Tournament title definitely would.
Xavier (21-11, RPI 45, SOS 33)
vs. RPI top 50: 3-4
vs. RPI under 200: 2-0
Quality wins: vs. (42) Tennessee, vs. (15) Cincinnati, at (63) St. John’s, vs. (8) Creighton
Bad losses: vs. (171) USC at Paradise Island, Bahamas, vs. (126) Seton Hall, at (126) Seton Hall
Projected seed: 11
They needed a win over Creighton to put them comfortably in. For now, they are in, but those losses to Seton Hall and USC hurt. Their RPI is not as high as you would like when chasing an at-large bid, but the name is still attached to the Big East, even if most of the teams are different. There is no way the committee will only take two Big East teams, which is good for the Musketeers.
Providence (21-11, RPI 51, SOS 62)
vs. RPI top 50: 2-6
vs. RPI under 200: 4-0
Quality wins: at (63) St. John’s, vs. (8) Creighton, vs. (45) Xavier, vs, (63) St. John’s at New York
Bad losses: vs. (126) Seton Hall
Projected seed: 11
The Friars got a gift when Seton Hall knocked off Villanova. Yes, they would have liked to have the win over the Wildcats themselves, but a trip to the Big East Championship Game will look awfully nice come Sunday, especially since Xavier lost.
Mandatory Credit: Thomas J. Russo-USA TODAY Sports
BIG TEN CONFERENCE:
Regular Season Champion: Michigan
Projected Bids: 5
Michigan (24-7, RPI 9, SOS 7)
vs. RPI top 50: 9-4
vs. RPI under 200: 4-0
Quality wins: vs. (53) Florida State at San Juan, vs. (40) Stanford at Brooklyn, at (46) Minnesota, at (47) Nebraska, at (6) Wisconsin, at (26) Michigan State, vs. (47) Nebraska, at (19) Ohio State, vs. (26) Michigan State, vs. (46) Minnesota, at (68) Illinois, vs. (68) Illinois at Indianapolis
Bad losses: vs. (149) Charlotte at San Juan
Projected Seed: 2
The Wolverines have the SOS and RPI to take Villanova’s one seed with a Big Ten Tournament Championship. The winner of the Big Ten tourney will take the last number one seed so long as it is either Wisconsin or Michigan.
Ohio State (25-8, RPI 19, SOS 17)
vs. RPI top 50: 6-4
vs. RPI under 200: 3-0
Quality wins: vs. (36) North Dakota State, vs. (47) Nebraska, at (6) Wisconsin, at (54) Iowa, at (68) Illinois, vs. (46) Minnesota, vs. (26) Michigan State, vs. (47) Nebraska at Indianapolis
Bad losses: vs. (113) Penn State, at (113) Penn State
Projected Seed: 5
The Buckeyes would probably climb to a No. 4 if they can manage to knock off Michigan. As it sits now though, they are firmly a No. 5 after beating Nebraska for a second time.
Wisconsin (25-6, RPI 6, SOS 2)
vs. RPI top 50: 6-4
vs. RPI under 200: 2-0
Quality wins: vs. (63) St John’s at Sioux Falls, SD, vs. (2) Florida, at (56) Green Bay, vs. (19) St. Louis at Cancun, at (12) Virginia, at (68) Illinois, vs. (26) Michigan State, vs. (46) Minnesota, at (9) Michigan, at (54) Iowa, vs. (46) Minnesota at Indianapolis
Bad losses: vs. (124) Northwestern
Projected Seed: 1
A Big Ten Tournament Championship would most certainly land the Badgers a No. 1 seed. After all, they are one of only two teams to topple Florida this year.
Michigan State (23-8, RPI 26, SOS 20)
vs. RPI top 50: 5-6
vs. RPI under 200: 3-0
Quality wins: vs. (20) Kentucky at Chicago, vs. (27) Oklahoma at Brooklyn, at (31) Texas, vs. (19) Ohio State, vs. (46) Minnesota, at (68) Illinois, at (54) Iowa
Bad losses: NONE
Projected Seed: 4
The Spartans are a dangerous team because they are well coached and experienced. They have all the tools to make another deep tournament run this year.
Nebraska (19-12, RPI 47, SOS 18)
vs. RPI top 50: 4-7
vs. RPI under 200: 4-0
Quality wins: vs. (19) Ohio State, vs. (46) Minnesota, at (26) Michigan State, vs. (6) Wisconsin
Bad losses: vs. (152) UAB at Charleston, SC, at (142) Purdue, at (113) Penn State
Projected seed: 11
The Huskers really needed to beat Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament. They put themselves in a precarious situation because there are other teams that have nearly the same body of work that are still going in their respective conference tournaments. I still think Nebraska gets their first invite in 16 years, and it’s mostly because of the win against Wisconsin on the last day of the regular season. If the committee sticks with wanting to take teams that are playing well, they should take the Huskers, who are 8-2 over their last 10 games.
Minnesota (20-12, RPI 46, SOS 9)
vs. RPI top 50: 2-7
vs. RPI under 200: 4-0
Quality wins: at (69) Richmond, vs. (53) Florida State, vs. (19) Ohio State, vs. (6) Wisconsin, vs. (54) Iowa
Bad losses: vs. (124) Northwestern, at (142) Purdue
Projected seed: 12
The Gophers have a better RPI than fellow Big Ten bubblers Nebraska and Iowa, but the blowout loss to the Badgers, coupled with Providence and NC State playing well might take Minnesota out.
Iowa (20-12, RPI 54, SOS 30)
vs. RPI top 50: 5-9
vs. RPI under 200: 6-0
Quality wins: vs. (45) Xavier at Paradise Island, Bahamas, vs. (47) Nebraska, at (19) Ohio State, vs. (46) Minnesota, at (68) Illinois, vs. (9) Michigan
Bad losses: vs. (124) Northwestern at Indianapolis.
Projected seed: 1…..in the NIT
Look, the Hawkeyes have some good wins. I get that. But if the tournament wants teams playing well, they need to stay far far away from the Hawkeyes. They have lost seven of their last 10. I would have let them in had they beaten Northwestern on Thursday. The rest of the body of work warranted it, and you may be able to overlook a 4-6 record over the last 10 games, but not 3-7 with a loss to one of the worst teams in the conference. A team which they very clearly were looking past. If I’m on the committee, I take a 47 RPI Nebraska team that is playing well, and a 46 RPI Minnesota team over Iowa. Especially considering they split the season series with the Gophers and Huskers. The numbers speak for themselves…..
Mandatory Credit: Ivan Pierre Aguirre-USA TODAY Sports
CONFERENCE USA:
Regular Season Champion: Louisiana Tech
Projected Bids: 1
Louisiana Tech (26-6, RPI 65, SOS 221)
vs. RPI top 50: 1-2
vs. RPI under 200: 13-1
Quality wins: at (27) Oklahoma, vs. (29) Southern Mississippi at El Paso, TX
Bad losses: vs. (109) Louisiana-Lafayette, at (101) UTEP, at (213) East Carolina
Projected seed: The only way they get in is with the autobid.
The Bulldogs could be in some serious trouble if they don’t win the C-USA tourney because of that high RPI and terrible strength of schedule. The win over Southern Mississippi in the conference tournament might be enough though. This prediction is volatile and subject to change with a loss…..
Southern Mississippi (27-5, RPI 29, SOS 138)
vs. RPI top 50: 1-1
vs. RPI under 200: 11-0
Quality wins: at (36) North Dakota State
Bad losses: at (121) Western Kentucky, at (152) UAB
Projected Seed: 11
A win over La Tech in the C-USA Tournament would have helped the Eagles’ cause immensely. They will have to hope that their one quality win holds up against the resumes of major conference behemoths. That said, part of the NCAA’s reason for expanding the field to 68 was to give teams exactly like Southern Miss a chance to get in. I have them in the 11-seed play-in game, even with the loss to La Tech.
I think Middle Tennessee State is now on the outside looking in with the loss in the C-USA tourney to Tulsa. Because of Tulsa’s high RPI (83), I think their only chance would be to win the C-USA tournament. They are one win away now, with the championship game against Louisiana Tech looming.
Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE:
Regular Season Champion: San Diego State
Projected Bids: 2
San Diego State (28-3, RPI 13, SOS 99)
vs. RPI top 50: 3-2
vs. RPI under 200: 8-0
Quality wins: vs (8) Creighton at Fullerton, CA, at (3) Kansas, vs. (16) New Mexico
Bad losses: at (131) Wyoming
Projected Seed: 4
I think the Aztecs probably only get that No. 3 seed if they win the MWC tournament. The only team that really poses a threat to them though is….
New Mexico (25-6, RPI 16, SOS 56)
vs. RPI top 50: 2-3
vs. RPI under 200: 6-0
Quality wins: vs. (15) Cincinnati, vs. (13) San Diego State
Bad losses: vs. (106) UNLV
Projected Seed: 6
The Lobos’ seed will change if they unseat SDSU at the top of the conference. I know that both of these teams have very similar resumes this year, but the conference winner will get a three or four seed, and the other will get a six. That’s just the way it is in the world of mid-majors. Now if UNLV would manage to win the tournament, I think both New Mexico and SDSU get in, which means that a team such as Minnesota or Providence would have to give up their ticket.