Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to Part Two of my series focusing on college basketball teams heading to the 2014 NCAA Tournament. This cheat sheet will give you all the relevant numbers that you need to know when picking your brackets.
I’ve already released my first piece, which covered the American, Atlantic 10, ACC, and Big 12, and then a second piece previewing the Big East, Big Ten, C-USA, and Mountain West Conferences.
This installment will feature the Pac-12, SEC and West Coast Conferences. Log on to Fantasy CPR on Sunday as I breakdown my final predictions.
One thing to note about this and further installments is that I hold teams from “major” conferences to a higher standard. Any loss to a team with an RPI under 100 is a bad loss. Quality wins are against teams RPI 60 or above at home, and 75 and above for road or neutral site games.
This part deals with those conference that will have more than one bid, but less than the major conferences.
Let’s keep dancing…
(RPI is in parentheses)
PAC-12 CONFERENCE:
Regular Season Champion: Arizona
Projected Bids: 6
Arizona (29-3, RPI 1, SOS 4)
vs. RPI top 50: 10-2
vs. RPI under 200: 4-0
Quality wins: at (13) San Diego State, vs. (9) Duke at New York, at (10) Michigan, at (19) UCLA, vs. (42) Arizona State, vs. (31) Colorado, at (40) Stanford, vs. (28) Oregon, at (31) Colorado, vs. (40) Stanford, vs. (31) Colorado at Las Vegas
Bad losses: NONE
Projected seed: 1
The Wildcats have had an impressive season, with all three losses on the road and within the conference. I wouldn’t be surprised if they were the top overall seed in the tournament, regardless of what happens in the Pac-12 tourney. You certainly can’t say that they haven’t earned it.
UCLA (24-8, RPI 19, SOS 26)
vs. RPI top 50: 6-5
vs RPI under 200: 3-1
Quality wins: vs. (42) Arizona State, at (31) Colorado, vs. (40) Stanford, at (28) Oregon, vs. (31) Colorado, at (62) California, vs. (28) Oregon at Las Vegas
Bad losses: at (220) Washington State
Projected Seed: 7
The loss to Washington State knocked them down a couple of seeds. All that means is that some poor unfortunate No. 2 seed is going to get much more than they bargained for on the first weekend……
Arizona State (21-11, RPI 42, SOS 46)
vs. RPI top 50: 4-7
vs RPI under 200: 6-0
Quality wins: vs. (31) Colorado, at (62) California, vs. (28) Oregon, vs. (1) Arizona, vs. (40) Stanford
Bad losses: vs. (111) Miami (FL) at Anaheim, CA
Projected Seed: 10
The loss in the first round of the Pac-12 tourney to Stanford might have them sweating just a bit on Sunday, but I don’t think they will have to. The Pac-12 was better than most people thought this year. Nine of the 12 teams are ranked in the top 100 of the RPI.
Colorado (23-10, RPI 31, SOS 25)
vs. RPI top 50: 5-7
vs. RPI under 200: 5-0
Quality wins: vs. (47) Harvard, vs. (3) Kansas, vs. (28) Oregon, vs. (42) Arizona State, at (40)Stanford
Bad losses: NONE
Projected Seed: 9
The Ralphies don’t have a plethora of nice wins like some teams do, but they do have two huge non-conference scalps. That can only help their seeding, but without a win over Arizona, they won’t get out of the 8-9 game.
Stanford (21-12, RPI 40, SOS 14)
vs. RPI top 50: 5-9
vs. RPI under 200: 6-0
Quality wins: at (20) Connecticut, at (28) Oregon, vs. (42) Arizona State, at (63) California, vs. (19) UCLA, vs. (42) Arizona State
Bad losses: NONE
Projected Seed: 9
The win over Arizona State should put Stanford as a No. 7 seed. The subpar showing against UCLA could knock them down to an eight, but I don’t see them falling any farther than that.
Oregon (23-9, RPI 28, SOS 17)
vs. RPI top 50: 4-6
vs. RPI under 200: 5-0
Quality wins: vs. (69) Georgetown at Seoul, South Korea, vs. (68) Illinois at Portland, OR, vs. (31) BYU, at (19) UCLA, vs. (42) Arizona State, vs. (1) Arizona
Bad losses: NONE
Projected seed: 8
The Ducks were out of the tournament as of three weeks ago. They proceeded to rattle off seven straight wins, including one over No. 1 Arizona. That plants the Ducks right in the middle of the seeding, which is a very dangerous place for them to be.
Cal finished fourth in the Pac 12, but has an RPI (63) that is way too high for an at-large bid, even for a team from a major conference.
Mandatory Credit: Paul Abell-USA TODAY Sports
SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE:
Regular Season Champion: Florida
Projected Bids: 3
Florida (30-2, RPI 2, SOS 18)
vs. RPI top 50: 8-2
vs. RPI under 200: 3-0
Quality wins: vs. (3) Kansas, vs. (34) Memphis at New York, at (75) Arkansas, vs. (41) Tennessee, vs. (49) Missouri, at (41) Tennessee, at (18) Kentucky, vs. (18) Kentucky, vs. (49) Missouri at Atlanta
Bad losses: NONE
Projected Seed: No. 1 overall
The Gators’ only two losses are to teams in the top 20 in the RPI. No one can compete with that.
Kentucky (23-9, RPI 18, SOS 5)
vs. RPI top 50: 4-5
vs. RPI under 200: 3-0
Quality wins: vs. (50) Providence at Brooklyn, vs. (23) Louisville, vs. (41) Tennessee, at (49) Missouri
Bad losses: NONE
Projected Seed: 6
Yes, Kentucky has nine losses, but they are all to teams above 80 in the RPI. The only problem they might have is that the SEC was not that tough this year. They could fall to a 6 or a 7 and I would not be a bit surprised.
Tennessee (21-11, RPI 41, SOS 30)
vs. RPI top 50: 3-6
vs RPI under 200: 4-0
Quality wins: vs. (46) Xavier at Paradise Island, Bahamas, vs. (11) Virginia, vs. (49) Missouri
Bad losses: vs. (101) UTEP at Paradise Island, Bahamas, vs. (145) Texas A&M, at (119) Vanderbilt, at (145) Texas A&M
Projected Seed: 11
The Vols have all sorts of bad losses. The only thing that gets them in is a win over Missouri. The loser of that one was on the outside looking in. Missouri getting bludgeoned by Florida certainly didn’t help their cause either….
I know I will catch all sorts of hell for only putting three SEC teams in, but the numbers don’t lie. There are a whole bunch of mid-range RPI teams that will be left out, especially if a team like North Carolina State keeps on winning. The Wolfpack could take away Tennessee’s bid with another win…
WEST COAST CONFERENCE:
Regular Season Champion: Gonzaga
Projected Bids: 2
Gonzaga (28-6, RPI 17, SOS 83)
vs. RPI top 50: 2-3
vs. RPI under 200: 6-0
Quality wins: vs. (75) Arkansas at Lahaina, HI, vs. (31) BYU, at (70) San Francisco, at (61) St. Mary’s, vs. (61) St. Mary’s at Las Vegas, vs. (31) BYU at Las Vegas
Bad losses: at (179) Portland, at (156) San Diego
Projected Seed: 7
Gonzaga is back in the tournament for, ho-hum, the seventeenth straight year. This year, the relative weakness of the WCC and only one solid non-conference win will relegate them to the middle of the pack, even though they won both the regular season and post season titles.
BYU (23-11, RPI 31, SOS 24)
vs. RPI top 50: 3-6
vs. RPI under 200: 3-0
Quality wins: vs. (40) Stanford, vs. (37) Texas at Kansas City, at (70) San Francisco, at (61) St. Mary’s, vs (70) San Francisco at Las Vegas
Bad losses: at (180) Loyola-Marymount, at (160) Pepperdine, at (179) Portland, at (135) Pacific
Projected Seed: 10
BYU’s bad road losses will keep their seed in the double-digits.
» There you have it! A breakdown of all 68 teams that should make the NCAA Tournament, as well as a few that will not make it, and why. Tune in Sunday after the conclusion of all of the conference tournaments for my brackets before the committee releases theirs!