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NCAA Tournament 2014: Sweet 16 Predictions for Friday, March 28th

Mar 22, 2014; Spokane, WA, USA; Michigan State Spartans forward Adreian Payne (5) dunks against Harvard Crimson guard Laurent Rivard (0) in the second half of a men

How’s your NCAA Tournament bracket doing?  That is the question that I have heard the most today.  Not too bad, actually.  I had Duke, Syracuse, Villanova, Wichita State, and Kansas all not surviving the weekend anyway.  I just didn’t always pick the right team to beat them.

In one of my work pools I made the mistake of having Creighton beat Baylor — and Oregon — so I have some ground to make up there.  But here, I get to wipe the slate clean and just pick this round again.  So far with the round-by-round picks, including the play-in games, I am sitting at 37-15.  No one ever said that this was an exact science.

EAST REGION at NEW YORK, NY:

(1) Virginia vs. (4) Michigan State:

After the Cavs’ lackluster performance against Coastal Carolina, I thought Memphis would give them problems.  They didn’t.  Virginia’s defense made Memphis play mostly in the halfcourt, which is not their strength.  Memphis is like a puppy.  They want to run.  Virginia became dog trainers, tightening the defensive leash and opening up a 27-point lead.  They never came close to giving that up, reaching the Sweet 16 for the first time since 1995.  Who would have thought that Virginia would be the only ACC team to survive the first weekend?

Michigan State looked like they were going to run off and leave Harvard.  The Crimson had other ideas, erasing a 16-point deficit to take a late lead against basketball royalty.  Michigan State calmly took the lead back the very next time down the court, and held on to it for dear life.  Harvard showed tremendous character coming back from that far down, but Michigan State was just too much for the undersized Crimson to overcome.

This should be a defensive war.  Both teams are very good at taking the other team out of their comfort zones.  It’s going to come down to who has the better athletes and who plays more as a team.  I picked Michigan State in my bracket, but I am nervous about the pick after seeing how Virginia handled Memphis.  The Spartans have not looked great in the NCAA Tournament thus far — not like they did in the Big Ten Tournament.  Will they find that team?  (Pick: Michigan State)

Mar 22, 2014; Buffalo, NY, USA; Connecticut Huskies guard Shabazz Napier (13) shoots against Villanova Wildcats in the first half of a men

(3) Iowa State vs. (7) Connecticut:

The Cyclones were able to rally after a 1-of-10 start from the field, and stayed with North Carolina the whole game.  This was the most entertaining non-overtime game (and more enjoyable that some of the overtime games) of the tournament so far.  Iowa State was able to rally as a team after losing Georges Niang.  Other players stepped up and helped the Cyclones advance to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2000.  North Carolina had 1.6 seconds left after the Cyclones took the lead, but tried to get the ball across half court before they called timeout.  This turned out to be a fatal flaw since time expired before they could get the timeout.  Strangely enough, this is the first time that no team from the state of North Carolina has advanced to the Sweet 16 since 1979.

Connecticut must really dislike Philadelphia.  They knocked off both of the teams from the city out of this year’s tournament.  Villanova did a good job in the first half, and kept everything close.  Then Shabazz Napier happened.  He dominated the second half of the game.  You hear talk about someone taking over a game all the time.  This was one of the few times that one man did.  The one-man gang known as Shabazz Napier (not the wrestler that was the One Man Gang) single-handedly took over this game with six minutes left, hitting three consecutive three-pointers to put the game out of reach.

Iowa State is going to have a difficult time with Napier.  That said, this team showed a lot of heart against North Carolina.  The Cyclones are balanced and do things that you can’t teach.  UConn is good enough to give Iowa State all they want.  They are good enough to win this game.  Iowa State has rallied after losing Niang.  Will it lead them to another win?  I kind of think it will.  They seem unstoppable right now.  (Pick: Iowa State)

Mar 22, 2014; Orlando, FL, USA; Louisville Cardinals forward/center Mangok Mathiang (12) reacts after a dunk against the Saint Louis Billikens in the first half of a men

MIDWEST REGION at INDIANAPOLIS, IN:

(4) Louisville vs. (8) Kentucky:

Louisville may play sloppy at times, as evidenced by their 19 turnovers, but their defense was swarming.  Saint Louis did not hit a single three-point shot in 15 tries, the worst percentage in NCAA Tournament history.  In fact, they only made one shot from outside the paint.  No matter how poorly the Cardinals may have played at times, there is no way a team can overcome that poor of a shooting performance.  Rick Pitino is now 16-0 in the second round of the NCAA Tournament.  Love him or hate him, that isn’t all luck.

I know Wichita State doesn’t want to hear this, but they played like champions.  They really did.  They went up against a team that was preseason number one.  A team that was bigger, stronger, and faster than them at nearly every position.  And they still nearly won the game.  Kentucky put an end to the best start to a season (35-0) in history.  There have been two other teams that lost for the first time in the NCAA Tournament, UNLV in 1991 and Indiana State in 1979.  What happened to the two teams (Duke and Michigan State) that beat those undefeated squads?  They won the title that year.  Just some food for thought…

This is the basketball equivalent of Giants-Dodgers, Oklahoma-Texas, or Steelers-Browns.  They may not be the marquee rivalries in their respective sports, but they are still a whole lot of fun to watch.  Especially in a lose-and-you’re-done scenario.  Louisville lost at Rupp Arena back in December.  This is truly on a neutral court though.  Will it make a difference?  (Pick: Louisville)

Mar 22, 2014; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Michigan Wolverines guard Nik Stauskas (11) lays the ball up in the first half of a men

(2) Michigan vs. (11) Tennessee:

Michigan held Texas to just 37 percent shooting.  They also made Cameron Ridley, who was so huge in the Arizona State game, irrelevant.  How?  They made a whopping 14 three-pointers.  The Wolverines took the “if you can’t go through them go around them” mantra and made it their game plan.  It worked.  Texas was flustered the entire game and never really got into a groove, allowing Michigan to run off with this.

The Mercer team that took out Duke was nowhere to be found.  They did not shoot well, and Tennessee ran them into the hardwood.  The Vols outrebounded Mercer 24-4 in the first half, and used that to keep the Bears down double-digits for the entire second half.  Tennessee used their size to bulldoze Mercer.  They never knew what hit them…

Tennessee will try to use that same tempo on Michigan as well.  They also have the size to give Michigan trouble on the inside.  Tennessee will also need to contest Michigan’s outside shots.  If they allow the Wolverines to shoot like they did against Texas, this could get out of hand.  (Pick: Michigan)

» Come back to Fantasy CPR next Friday and Saturday, where I’ll be be giving my Elite Eight predictions.  I wont leave you hanging now!

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