Mar 28, 2014; New York, NY, USA; Connecticut Huskies guard Shabazz Napier (13) shoots the ball during the first half against the Iowa State Cyclones in the semifinals of the east regional of the 2014 NCAA Mens Basketball Championship tournament at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
The rule of thumb in the NCAA Tournament the last few years has been: don’t bet against the Big Ten.
The conference had two teams in the Final Four last year, and with three of the final eight standing, the odds are good that it will happen again. The usual suspects are all still hanging around in Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Michigan.
For those of you doing a round-by-round NCAA Tournament bracket challenge, here are my predictions for the Elite Eight matchups on Sunday, March 30th.
My round-by-round record now sits at 42-18 with just seven games remaining.
EAST REGION at NEW YORK CITY, NY:
(4) Michigan State vs. (7) Connecticut:
Michigan State and Virginia both had runs of double digits in the first half. Both teams used their stifling defense on each other to fuel these runs. The second half was close throughout. Virginia’s defense gave the Spartans fits for the entire game, but it was particularly evident in the first seven minutes of the second half. Neither team could do a good job of shooting because of the harrassment by the opposing defenses. You saw both teams do outstanding jobs of disrupting fast breaks because of closing off passing lanes. Michigan State grew the lead down the stretch by making the extra pass against the stout Virginia D to get the easier shot. It worked. The Spartans extended their lead to as far as seven points before the Cavs came storming back yet again to tie the game inside of two minutes remaining. The Spartans were able to make their free throws down the stretch to beat a very good Virginia team.
Connecticut survived a monster game by Dustin Hogue to take down the Niang-less Cyclones. Hogue put up a career-high 34 points in his return home. Aside from Hogue though, Iowa State could not get anyone else going in the game. Before the first half was half done, the Huskies had ran up a double digit lead. Iowa State was able to cut it down in the second half, but they were never able to get closer than five. The superior guard play of UConn was a problem the entire game for the Cyclones, and is the main reason that they are headed home.
Connecticut has had an impressive run, but they have not faced a defense like Michigan State will throw at them. This will be a good game, but if Sparty fails to hit their shots, can their defense bail them out again? They have proven over and over again that they can. (Pick: Michigan State)
Mar 28, 2014; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Kentucky Wildcats guard Aaron Harrison (2) reacts after making a basket against the Louisville Cardinals in the second half in the semifinals of the midwest regional of the 2014 NCAA Mens Basketball Championship tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
MIDWEST REGION at INDIANAPOLIS, IN:
(2) Michigan vs. (8) Kentucky:
Louisville jumped all over Kentucky in the first eight minutes of the game, racking up an 18-5 lead. Kentucky stormed back with transition baskets, and made it close by halftime. In the second half, these two teams combined to make their own “Fast and the Furious” movie. If you love highlight-reel dunks, and basketball played at a pace that would make the 1990 Loyola Marymount team proud, this was the game to watch. This game was as advertised. They looked like Ali vs. Frazier for most of the second half. Neither let the other get too far out front. There were players on the floor nearly every possession, and not because they went to the Vlade Divac school of flopping. The game was just that physical. Kentucky faced their largest deficit of the second half at seven points with just over four minutes left. They ended up taking a two-point lead with 32 seconds left after a huge three pointer by Aaron Harrison. The Wildcats never lost that lead. Louisville had a chance to tie with a pair of free throws with eight seconds left, but missed one. Kentucky was able to hit theirs at the end of the game to send the defending National Champions home.
Michigan looked like they were going to run off and leave Tennesee. The Vols had no answer defensively for Michigan and their half court game. The Wolverines had run the lead as far as 15 points with about 12 minutes left in the game. Then Tennessee remembered what had gotten them this far. They began to run at a breakneck pace and for some hurried shots and Michigan mistakes. Next thing you know, the Vols are right back in it. Michigan did everything they could to lose this game. They turned it over twice with under 12 seconds remaining, but Tennessee was unable to convert either gift into points.
I tend to think that Michigan will have an advantage here because Kentucky went 12 rounds with Louisville. While Michigan’s win was far from easy, it was easier than what Kentucky had. That said, Michigan did not look very good late against Tennessee. They blew a huge second half lead, and made some stunning errors at the end of the game that could have cost them. I personally think that Kentucky is just playing better right now. (Pick: Kentucky)
Stay tuned for my Final Four picks for those of you that still play the round-by-round games!