Daily Fantasy Baseball: Top Plays for Tuesday, April 1st
By John Hillier
Starting Nine:
Daily Fantasy Baseball is certainly no can of corn! Don’t worry though, we’ve got all your bases covered. Each day, we put the ‘ducks on the pond’ for you by presenting you with “The Natural” plays at each position, as well as a few “Savoy Specials” for good measure. Los Angeles Dodgers’ SS Hanley Ramirez steps up to the plate as Tuesday’s top daily play.
Let’s play ball!!
Pitcher: Zack Greinke, LAD ($9,200): Greinke is the top-priced pitcher on the board, and rightfully so. Not only is Greinke heavily favored to receive the W, but he’s also the only one that could even be argued as having “ace” status.
Last year, Greinke had a respectable K-rate of 7.5 while posting a 2.63 ERA and a WHIP of just 1.11. To be fair, Greinke does come with some risk, as his ERA was over a full point higher on the road. In addition, most of his other stats were not as good either, especially his K/BB, which fell from 5.25 at home to just 2.13 when away.
If you find that risk too much to stomach at that price, consider Matt Cain, SFG ($8,100). Cain is also (albeit slightly) favored for the win and pitched noticeably better on the road last year than at home.
Savoy Special: Kyle Lohse, MIL ($5,200): Lohse is favored for the victory and is the second-rated SP behind Matt Cain, according to Bill James‘ “Game Score” formula.
Catcher: Jonathan Lucroy, MIL ($3,400): I expect that Lucroy will occupy the five hole once again behind Braun and Ramirez, who will hit third and fourth respectively. Not only will he batting behind two guys that have had considerable success vs. LHP, but he himself has also owned LHP. Over the past three seasons, Lucroy has a wOBA of .405, a .948 OPS, and just a 13.3% K-rate.
Savoy Special: John Jaso, OAK ($2,700): Jaso is almost a “must play” for me vs. RHP at this price. He has a .377 OBP, in addition to an excellent .358 wOBA vs. RHP across the last three seasons.
First Base: Adrian Gonzalez, LAD ($3,800): Though Edwin Encarnacion and Prince Fielder are both excellent plays tonight, I like Gonzalez. Not only does Gonzalez occupy a prime spot within one of the more potent lineups in the game, but he offers similar upside for quite a bit less.
Last year, Gonzalez batted .303 vs. RHP with 18 HRs and a .356 wOBA. Last year’s wOBA vs. RHP is actually below his three-year average of .377. Add in a K-rate of just 15.1%, and an OPS of .887 vs. RHP over the same time frame, and it’s easy to see why Gonzalez is my top play at 1B for the price.
Savoy Special: Adam Lind, TOR ($3,100): Part of a potent lineup and has a .359 wOBA vs. RHP, to go along with an extremely low K-rate of just 9.1% over the past three seasons.
Second Base: Jose Altuve, HOU ($3,700): In his short career, Altuve has carried a .321 BA vs. LHP overall, and a beautiful .351 BA vs. LHP at home. Also of note are his career .353 wOBA and .361 OBP vs. left-handed pitchers.
Savoy Special: Rickie Weeks, MIL ($2,900): High K-rate vs. LHP, but still possesses a .389 OBP against them.
Third Base: Aramis Ramirez, MIL ($3,400): Adrian Beltre is, statistically speaking, the top 3B option. However, for $1,000 less, I’ll roster Ramirez, who compares quite favorably. He has a nice matchup and is surrounded by players that have had success against LHP.
Shortstop: Hanley Ramirez, LAD ($4,400): Hanley Ramirez is an absolute beast vs. RHP. Last year, Ramirez batted a robust .344 vs. RHP, and was even better on the road, batting .361. In addition to the .361 BA away vs. RHP, he also hit nine of his 13 HRs vs. RHP, on the road. Add to that, a ridiculous .421 wOBA, .391 OBP, and a OPS of .981, and you can really begin to see what makes him the top play.
Also consider, Troy Tulowitzki, COL ($4,400). Tulowitzki can be considered more of a tournament play, as he doesn’t have the arsenal of bats surrounding him that Hanley Ramirez does.
Savoy Special: Brad Miller, SEA ($2,900)/Elvis Andrus, TEX ($3,900)
Outfielders:
Top Tier: Ryan Braun, MIL ($4,400): Over his career, Braun has batted .333 vs. LHP at home. He also possesses a .397 wOBA, along with OBP and OPS marks of .407 and 1.050, respectively. That’s production that few can replicate.
At a similar price point, Shin-Soo Choo, TEX ($4,000) offers up comparable numbers, though without the power upside. For his career, he has a .309 BA vs. RHP, that pairs nicely with a .402 wOBA and .411 OBP vs. RHP.
Middle Tier: Andre Ethier, LAD ($3,200): Ethier has a career .302 BA, along with a .373 wOBA and .384 OBP vs. RHP on the road.
Ben Zobrist, TAM ($3,500) and Carl Crawford, LAD ($3,100) also have favorable splits for their situations
Savoy Specials: Jeff Baker, MIA ($2,200)/David DeJesus, TAM ($2,600)/Matt Joyce, TAM ($2,700)/Robbie Grossman, HOU ($2,800)/Marcell Ozuna, MIA ($2,900)/Dexter Fowler, HOU ($3,000): Baker is probably the top play in this bunch, given his price and performance across a large sample size, but I wouldn’t have a problem rostering any of them in tournaments. For cash games though, I’d likely stick to Baker, DeJesus and Fowler.
Thank you and good luck!!!