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Ask Nash: Why Selling High Doesn’t Work Right Now

By Steven 'Nash' Olan

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Trying to sell high on Justin Smoak? It may not be that easy. Photo Credit: Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

I have gotten a lot of questions on whether or not to sell on guys in a hot start because there are many out there: Brandon Belt, Justin Smoak, and Mark Trumbo just to name a few. This list excludes players currently starting to heat up, Mike Morse, Chris Colabello, and Charlie Blackmon. Unfortunately, selling high doesn’t always work with fantasy baseball trades.

It goes without saying that most fantasy owners have a guy that they might be considering to sell high. The thing about selling high is that the market is almost as important as the player’s production. Unfortunately, a number of factors make this a bad market for selling high on players.

1.  Too early to tell

It’s still too small of a sample size to trust hot starters since the season is still not even two full weeks old.

This doesn’t apply to top level guys that have earned the trust of owners, but if you have a kid like Brandon Belt or even Justin Smoak, there is a substantial amount of doubt until you see a little more from them.

People are far less willing to trade away more established player for a potential, roll of the dice.

2. Flooded market

An abundance of players who are off to a hot start. In addition to the guys listed above are players like Michael Cuddyer, Carlos Gomez, and Melky Cabrera.

There are just so many hitters who are producing really well right now. This means that in many leagues there are hitters in free agency and on the waiver wire who can be picked up. This does not lend itself to people wanting to trade away valuable assets for guys off to a hot start.

3. Holding onto hope

People aren’t ready to give up on their slow starters just yet. Given the fact that we are only two weeks into the season, most people shouldn’t be hitting the panic button just yet.

There are plenty of good players off to terribly slow starts. Look at Edwin Encarnacion, Josh Donaldson, and even Justin Upton.

Smart owners will be patient with guys. Sometimes it isn’t even as much about being a good patient owner as it is about guys letting their pride get in the way. No one wants to admit that they were wrong on players they drafted so soon.

Considering all of these factors ,owners have to realize that the sell high trade window will most likely close before you find a suitable trade. Owners of these players have to be prepared to cut bait when the hot start slowing drifts away, and the player comes down to earth. Don’t you let your pride get in your way and hold to Brandon Belt of Chris Colabello if they slow way down and other players start to heat up.

Most of fantasy baseball is working the wire and free agency. If hot prospects like George Springer or Oscar Taveras are still in free agency they could be worth adding in place of a falling off player. They will most likely hit the big leagues at just the right time for a sell high situation.

If you have a question that you’d like to see me answer in a future Ask Nash, please reach out in any of the following ways.

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