Jon Niese has been off to a great start this year and if he keeps it going, he’s going to have a great season.
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There are plenty of reasons to both buy and sell him. Here, we’re looking at the negatives you need to consider.
Now, should you take a chance or not? Well, that depends on the kind of fantasy player you are and what you do and don’t put stock in.
Reasons to Sell
1. The team/wins
Unless you’re in a league that doesn’t count wins, you just can’t ignore this. The Mets haven’t had a winning season since 2008 and don’t appear ready to break that streak in 2014.
Statistically, the bullpen isn’t bad. It’s not great, but it isn’t bad. But when you watch them play, it’s hard to have a lot of confidence. If a pitcher — Jon Niese in this case — leaves a game with a close lead after six or seven innings, he can’t have a lot of confidence that he’ll pick up the win.
Unfortunately, it’s a team that doesn’t score a lot of runs so if Niese is leaving with a lead, it’s likely not a big one.
Now, at this point of the year, I’m more in favor of locking down ERA and WHIP. That way, when we get into the last few months of the year, you can afford to take some risks in streaming to pick up wins and strikeouts. Still, the Mets inability to win games does loom in any league that uses the traditional categories.
2. Injury History
He’s never thrown more than 200 innings in a season.
Jon Niese is 27, far from an inexperienced rookie. When I see a guy on pace to hit 200 innings — as he’s on now — a few thoughts pop into my head.
- Some time on the DL on may be coming. Or at least…
- He’s going to be getting hurt at some point and even if that doesn’t result in a DL stint, it’s possible he’ll try to pitch through some discomfort. You never want to see that from anyone.
3. Past History
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A few too many hits, but not a bad pitcher, just not a terribly relevant fantasy option.
In case you were wondering, this isn’t exactly a guy that’s shown significant progress, at least not in 2013.
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You can see above that he’s significantly better than both his career numbers and the 2013 totals right now. Even if Jon Niese does end up better than those at the end of the year, there’s plenty of room for some significant regression. When you’re looking at a possible fantasy add, “significant regression” is never anything you want to see as a possibility.
Click HERE for Part 2, the reasons to buy Niese.