Eric Hosmer and Chris Davis should be bought low

Over the next week, we will be going over the buy low and sell high options for each position. We will follow the positions the way that the powers that be in baseball decided.  Since this is the third installment, we will focus on position 3, which is first base!

The starting pitchers are here.  The relief pitchers are here.  The catchers are here.

As with each baseball season, there are plenty of players that are well over or well under their career averages. Finding the players that will either shed their horrid slumps, or cool off after hot starts can be the difference between winning and losing your league.

How does one go about finding the overachievers and underachievers? Season numbers vs. careeer numbers are a good place to start. But everyone has to have a breakout season sometime. What if a players is in the midst of one of those? Sometimes you just have to go with your gut…….and hope you are reading the right column!

Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman Adrian Gonzalez (23) reacts after reaching second on an RBI double in the third inning Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Buy low candidates:

Adrian Gonzalez, Dodgers: Yes, his power numbers have waned since he hit 40 home runs in 2009.  They have gone down almost every year since.  His 12 home runs so far are nice.  They put him on pace for around 28, which he has not done since 2010.  The reason I am saying buy low is because of his batting average.  Gonzalez is hitting just .247, and loss of power or not, the average has always been good.  He has not hit below .277 in a full season.  Nothing about him says regression, so I expect his average to climb to at least .270, and likely higher.  Whether that means more power or not really is not the point.  It should help him get close to 100 RBI again.  A feat he has done all but once since 2007.  The year that he missed the century mark?  He had 99.

Chris Davis, Orioles: Someone who drafted him expecting a repeat of last year is likely about ready to scream due to his .234 average and nine home runs.  The fact remains that Davis has 86 home runs and 223 RBI in his last two seasons.  He won’t hit 50 homers again this year, but 30 is a realistic expectation.  Meaning that the power is likely coming soon.  Davis’ career average is .263, so he will likely raise the average to .250 at the least.  Trust me, you want to buy him before he goes off, not during.

Eric Hosmer, Royals: He likely won’t ever live up to his hype, but he has had double digit homers and steals every year of his career.  The three homers and zero steals that he has this season are certainly a huge disappointment, and the Hosmer owners that haven’t dropped him yet are likely looking for someone to take him.  Two of his three home runs have come in the last three games, so this could be the beginning of a hot streak. 

Chicago White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu (79) at bat during the game Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Sell high candidates:

Justin Morneau, Rockies: Morneau has put up nice numbers this year, but most of them were put up in April.  He only has one home run and three RBI since May 18th, and his average has plummeted from .327 to .282 in that span.  I expect him to put up the average of what he has done since the injuries hit.   Which would put him between 15 and 20 homers and 75 or so RBI.  With an average in the high .260’s or low .270’s.  Your window to sell is closing though due to his recent slump.  If you can’t get decent value out of him, he might be worth hanging on to because his average likely won’t get much worse.   But keep in mind that if the Rockies fall out of contention that Ryan Wheeler could take at bats away from him.  The Rockies see him as the future at first base.

Jose Abreu, White Sox: Now, if you are in anything but a redraft league, ignore this one.  In redraft leagues though, there is some reason to be skeptical about Abreu.  He has clobbered 18 home run in just 200 at bats.  He likely will not be able to keep up this pace.  He is a lock for the AL rookie of the year award and 100 RBI, so only move him if you get someone really good in return.  All I am saying is that his power is likely to slow down as the season wears on.  He is on pace for 45 home runs right now, but I think I will take the under on 40 simply because he missed three weeks.  The MLB season is longer and more grueling than any other baseball league on the planet.  He will likely experience some fatigue down the stretch.  How much is the guessing game.

Victor Martinez, Tigers: VMart is on some kind of tear right now.  He is hitting .336 with seven homers over the last month.  His average is sitting at .332 on the season with 15 home runs and 40 RBI.  So why am I skeptical?  He has never topped 25 home runs in his career.  He has not topped 20 since 2010.  The fact that he is a full-time DH has done wonders for his health, but I just don’t see him setting a career high in home runs at the age of 35.  The average may very well stay there, and he is no stranger to 100-RBI seasons – he has four of them – but I have a hard time believing he has a career year at this age.  I would expect some sort of regression, especially in the power department, so it might be wise to move him before he starts cooling off.

Come back tomorrow for number 4, the second basemen!