NBA Free Agency: Is Gordon Hayward being overpaid?

Examining whether a player is overpaid is, for the most part, an objective argument. With the exception of well-paid players who are either always injured (Amar’e Stoudemire) or universally thought of as terrible (Andrea Bargnani), there are typically well-reasoned arguments to be argued on both sides.

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That is very much the case with Gordon Hayward, the Utah Jazz restricted free agent who just signed a four-year, $63 million offer sheet with the Charlotte Hornets. All indications are that Utah will match Charlotte’s offer sheet. In a vacuum, Hayward’s contract is a slight overpay. He’s a very good, but not elite player; at least not yet, anyway. Hayward is best served as a second or probably third option on a strong team with an offensive hierarchy already in place. He’s a jack of all trades wing who can play multiple positions and does a lot well, but is spectacular at nothing.

For Charlotte, they need a player like Hayward in the worst way. Outside of post up virtuoso Al Jefferson and the young, but unpolished Kemba Walker, they lack offensive fire power. They made the playoffs in spite of their offense, which finished 23rd in the league in points per possession. Having that elite defense to fall back on should guarantee Charlotte’s competitiveness in the coming years, but they’ll never make the leap from fringe playoff team to fringe contender unless they improve their offense.

The Jazz aren’t nearly as far along in the rebuilding process. Absent from their roster are players who can make them competitive immediately. But they’re trying to get back quickly and are willing to spend money to do so. But as we’ve seen time and time again in the NBA, willfully spending money doesn’t guarantee success. Especially not in the Western Conference.

They’re already paying Derrick Favors, who had an underwhelming 2013, $47 million over the next four seasons and would be paying Hayward like a franchise cornerstone. Pouring a ton of money into Favors and Hayward won’t cripple their salary cap in the coming years, and there’s a chance they both develop into All-Star caliber players. But at the same time, Utah’s rebuilding strategy seems utterly rudderless. What’s the plan? Is there a plan? Daryl Morey’s rebuilding blueprint is the one teams should be following. He maintained cap flexibility while selling off good assets when they had value. He laid low until the opportunity to nab superstars presented itself then he pounced. The Rockets now look like long-term contenders in a strong Western Conference.

As we’ve seen time and time again in the NBA, willfully spending money doesn’t guarantee success.

There’s nothing wrong with wanting to keep your young players. But there is a problem with overpaying to do so. Of all the players on Utah’s roster, Hayward and Dante Exum are probably the two with the most upside moving forward. Enes Kanter and Alec Burks are up for extensions after next season, but neither guy has proven to be above-average up to this point. Investing big money into a core of Favors, Hayward, Kanter and Burks only works if at least two of the guys develop into all-star caliber players. Otherwise, the Jazz will end up using the majority of their cap space on solid players who don’t move the needle much.

That isn’t to say Utah is locked into a bad plan. Favors is just 22 and his contract isn’t an albatross. Even after his extension, Hayward will likely still draw interest from teams around the league. But he also drew interest at the trade deadline and it was widely speculated at the time that he’d be offered a max contract during the offseason. It’s not like anyone was blindsided by Charlotte’s offer to Hayward. The Jazz could’ve also shopped him around as a potential sign-and-trade piece closer to the draft. They opted not to trade him either time.

ESPN’s Marc Stein reported back in November that Utah was unwilling to go over four years at $50 million for Hayward, barring a step forward in production. It didn’t happen. He actually regressed, though not in a major way, last season. Some of the factors affecting his play were beyond his control – bad coaching, bad teammates – but he certainly didn’t take a step forward. If Utah was unwilling to pay him close to the max then, they shouldn’t be so quick to pay him now.

But for Charlotte, the core of what they want to do is already in place. They’re going to pound the ball down low to Jefferson and play elite defense. They just lost Josh McRoberts, but added a young player in Noah Vonleh with a ton of potential to replace him. PJ Hairston is talented, but troubled off the court. Him, Gerald Henderson and a newly added Hayward would give them a strong offensive wing rotation. With the Eastern Conference as porous as it is, a player like Hayward might just be enough to push them into the second round and maybe further. And unlike Utah, they can afford to gamble pouring money into a young player who may or may not evolve into a star.

Worst case scenario, Hayward still ends up a useful player. His ability to play either the two or three unlocks some intriguing small-ball lineups for Charlotte. They can kick Kidd-Gilchrist to the four next to Jefferson and run out a Walker-Henderson-Hayward-MKG-Jefferson lineup that’s more potent offensively than any they had last year. Hayward also gives them a capable outside shooter, something they desperately need; Charlotte finished 23rd in three point shooting. He can also serve as a secondary ball handler when needed and is a solid defender that won’t needed to be hidden.

Contracts, just like players, fit differently for different teams. Amar’e Stoudemire’s contract severely hampers what the Knicks are trying to do, but it wouldn’t affect teams like Philadelphia, who are trying to be lousy. Hayward will be slightly overpaid to start, but could very well develop into a second tier star when its all said and done. Most likely, he peaks as a well-rounded third option on a good team. Those guys are useful, but they’re not worth investing max money into if you’re a rebuilding team with no other alpha dogs on the roster.

For Charlotte, a fringe playoff team with an opportunity to become something more, investing in Hayward is smart. He’s younger than fellow free agents Paul Pierce, Trevor Ariza and Luol Deng. He doesn’t bring the same risk as noted insane person Lance Stephenson does. We pretty much know what Hayward will be and he’s young enough to potentially surprise us. For the Jazz, investing max dollars in solid players makes no sense. There’s no Al Jefferson or Kemba Walker-like building blocks on their roster currently. They’re lightyears away from making the playoffs in the West anyways. Maybe the plan is to ship Hayward and/or Favors elsewhere in the future. But then again, it doesn’t seem like they have a plan in place at all.